Obscure stat doesn't bode well for 49ers Super Bowl chances this year
By Peter Panacy
The 49ers remain Super Bowl contenders despite a three-game losing streak before their bye week, but this stat doesn't suggest the Lombardi Trophy is imminent.
Ideally, the San Francisco 49ers would have entered their Week 9 bye on a high note by defeating the visiting Cincinnati Bengals the previous Sunday at Levi's Stadium.
Instead, Cincy outplayed the Niners at every phase and level, capping off what has been a frustrating three-game stretch for head coach Kyle Shanahan and Co. that has seen San Francisco drop from a perfect 5-0 record to 5-3.
That's still a Super Bowl-contending record, right? Even if the 49ers have now relinquished their hold on both the No. 1 seed in the conference and the top spot in the NFC West following the losing streak.
True, the Niners are still very much Super Bowl contenders. And the NFC still presents a much easier path to the Super Bowl than the gauntlet AFC.
That said, this point and stat from CBS Sports' Garrett Podell may have San Francisco fans thinking twice about the likelihood of the 49ers' sixth Super Bowl title.
49ers fall short of where last 10 Super Bowl-winning teams' records were 100 days away from NFL championship
Podell took a look at the last 10 Super Bowl-winning teams at the halfway point of the season (100 days out from the Super Bowl, in this case) to see what those teams' records were and if there was any correlation.
Here were the findings and records:
Season | Super Bowl champion | Record 100 days away | Final regular-season record |
|---|---|---|---|
2022 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5-2 (entering Week 9) | 14-3 |
2021 | Los Angeles Rams | 7-1 (entering Week 9) | 12-5 |
2020 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5-2 (entering Week 8) | 11-5 |
2019 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5-2 (entering Week 8) | 12-4 |
2018 | New England Patriots | 5-2 (entering Week 8) | 11-5 |
2017 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6-1 (entering Week 8) | 13-3 |
2016 | New England Patriots | 6-1 (entering Week 8) | 14-2 |
2015 | Denver Broncos | 6-0 (entering Week 8) | 12-4 |
2014 | New England Patriots | 5-2 (entering Week 8) | 12-4 |
2013 | Seattle Seahawks | 6-1 (entering Week 8) | 13-3 |
Podell pointed out the key stat: 100 days out from the Super Bowl, no team had more than two losses at the halfway point of the season. Additionally, only the 2020 Buccaneers didn't win their division.
As for which teams would qualify for winning the Super Bowl based on this pattern from the last 10 years? Here's what Podell pointed out:
"Given these patterns, there are eight teams that could potentially win the Super Bowl this season with four contenders from each conference sitting with two or fewer losses entering Week 9. The four from the AFC are the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (6-2), the Miami Dolphins (6-2), the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) and the Baltimore Ravens (6-2). The four from the NFC are the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles (7-1), the Detroit Lions (6-2), the Seattle Seahawks (5-2) and the Dallas Cowboys (5-2)."
Related story: Predicting each 49ers game over 2nd half of 2023 schedule
At 5-3 entering Week 9 and 100 days out, the 49ers would not qualify as a Super Bowl winner, at least based on the recent trend.
Granted, just by tweaking the baseline, the Niners did have a 5-2 record entering Week 8, which would have been plenty sufficient to make the list. And Podell also pointed out that San Francisco, along with the 5-3 Buffalo Bills and 4-3 Cincinnati Bengals, are all more than capable to "break through to win the Super Bowl despite not meeting the criteria" from these last 10 Super Bowl winners.
All told, however, it probably would have been better if the 49ers won at least one of their last three games instead of losing all of them.
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