49ers vs. Chiefs betting preview, odds and prediction for Super Bowl 58

Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13)
Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) / Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco 49ers have got their wish and now have a chance to get their revenge on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

The last time the 49ers made the big game, they fell to the Chiefs by a final score of 31-20 at Super Bowl 54 after leading 20-10 heading into the fourth quarter. This time, San Francisco will enter the game as a small favorite.

In this article, I'm going to break down everything you need to know to bet on the Super Bowl, including the odds and my best bet.

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Chiefs vs. 49ers odds, spread, and total

Chiefs vs. 49ers betting trends

  • 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
  • Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. Chiefs
  • The OVER is 6-3 in the 49ers' last nine games
  • Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the Chiefs' last six games
  • Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. NFC West opponents

Chiefs vs. 49ers injury reports

Kansas City Chiefs injury report

  • Charles Omenihu - DE - Out
  • Kadarius Toney - WR - Questionable
  • Willie Gay - LB - Questionable
  • Joe Thuney - G - Questionable
  • Prince Tega Wanogho - OR - IR-R

San Francisco 49ers injury report

  • Kalia Davis - DT - IR-R

Chiefs vs. 49ers how to watch

  • Date: Sunday, February 11
  • Game Time: 6:30 pm ET
  • Venue: Allegiant Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • San Francisco 49ers Record: 14-5
  • Kansas City Chiefs Record: 14-6

Chiefs vs. 49ers key players to watch

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes: Obviously, the Chiefs' most key and important player is Patrick Mahomes. This team goes as far as he takes them and he's been near flawless in the postseason throughout his career. If he can lead them to another championship, he's on pace to match Tom Brady's career. This is a big one for the Chiefs quarterback.

San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffrey: The key to victory for the 49ers in this game is their running back, Christian McCaffrey, who's averaging 5.1 yards per carry in the playoffs while adding in four touchdowns in two games. The weakness of the Chiefs' defense is their run defense, which means McCaffrey has to have a big day. If he doesn't, the 49ers are going to be in trouble if they're forced to throw the ball.

Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and pick

It may seem stupid to some people to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but that's exactly what I'm going to do. Let's all take a step back from these past two games, for both teams, and think about this season as a whole.

The 49ers, for the majority of the 2023 NFL campaign, was the best team in the NFL and if you didn't think they were the best, you would have slot them in at No. 2 behind only the Baltimore Ravens. It wasn't just because of their record either. Let's look at where they rank in some key offensive metrics:

  • Net Yards per Play: 1st
  • EPA per Play: 1st
  • Success rate: 1st
  • Dropback EPA: 1st
  • Dropback success rate: 1st
  • Rush EPA: 1st
  • Rush success rate: 2nd
  • Average scoring margin: 2nd
  • Red zone offense: 1st
  • Third down offense: 3rd

Those are some pretty solid numbers, if I do say so myself. They rank first offensive in just about every single category. Defensively, they're a little bit closer to the middle of the pack, but they still have allowed the third fewest points per game.

Let's also remember that they have the best weapon possible to attack the Chiefs' defensive weakness. Kansas City has allowed teams to run the ball against them all season, ranking 25th in opponent yards per carry, 28th in opponent rush EPA and 23rd in opponent rush success rate. For some reason, the Ravens refused to run the football against them in the AFC Championship and it cost them.

Now, the 49ers have a chance to sick Christian McCaffrey on them. He may just drag this team to victory.

Is it concerning that they'll face this era's version of the GOAT in Patrick Mahomes? Yes. Is how the 49ers have come out in the first half in each of their two playoff games something to worry about? Yes.

With that being said, the 49ers have been the best team in the NFL this season but yet are only 1.5-point favorites. We need to base our evaluation off a full season of games, not just the latest two.

I'll bet on the 49ers to get their revenge and win the franchise's first Super Bowl since 1994.

Iain's Pick: 49ers -1.5 (-115)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!