With the 49ers roster now at a full 90 players, Niner Noise takes a look at which players are locks and which ones are on the bubble.
The major portion of the San Francisco 49ers' offseason roster construction for 2023 is over. Sure, there'll be minor tweaks here and there, a free-agent grab or a release that barely makes the news cycle. But, with the notable waves of free agency and the NFL Draft now in the rearview mirror, head coach Kyle Shanahan's squad looks much like how it will until the final 53-man roster is constructed ahead of Week 1.
With 90 players under contract, nearly half of those are going to see their hopes of sticking around with the Niners into the regular season dashed.
Related Story: Early 53-man roster predictions for 49ers after 2023 NFL Draft
There's a long way to go before determining that, however. And there are other X-factors that we'll take note of, too, such as contracts, crowded positions and whatnot. But we can try looking at who's at risk and who isn't in our first offseason roster bubble-watch piece of the 2023 season.
Per usual, each player will land in one of the four categories:
- Lock: Barring something crazy, he'll be there Week 1
- Strong bubble: Pretty good shape even if a spot isn't guaranteed
- Weak bubble: A lot would have to go right to survive cuts... and we mean a lot
- Long shot: Good luck, dude
Got it? Good. Let's kick this thing off with the group that, well... kicks. Special teams.
And there's actually some drama here for a change.
49ers roster bubble watch: Special teams
Lock: Jake Moody*, Taybor Pepper, Mitch Wishnowsky
Strong bubble: None
Weak bubble: Zane Gonzalez
Long shot: None
*denotes rookie
For years now, San Francisco's special teams battery consisted of the trio of long-snapper Taybor Pepper, punter Mitch Wishnowsky and kicker Robbie Gould. No one else.
Gould is gone now, and he's not coming back. Not after the 49ers traded for former Carolina Panthers kicker Zane Gonzalez...
And then used a third-round pick on Michigan kicker Jake Moody in the draft.
Barring a complete meltdown in training camp and/or the preseason, Moody isn't going anywhere unless he gets hurt. The Niners wouldn't use a third-round pick on a specialist unless they were willing to take a long chance on him.
The only way Gonzalez hangs around is as insurance if Moody gets hurt.
49ers roster bubble watch: Secondary
Lock: Isaiah Oliver, Charvarius Ward, Deommodore Lenoir, Ji'Ayir Brown*, Tashaun Gipson Sr., Talanoa Hufanga, George Odum
Strong bubble: Darrell Luter Jr.*, Samuel Womack III, Myles Hartsfield
Weak bubble: Qwuantrezz Knight, Ambry Thomas, A.J. Parker, Tayler Hawkins, Avery Young
Long shot: D'Shawn Jamison*
Not too many question marks at safety. A decent deal of them at cornerback.
Tashaun Gipson and Talanoa Hufanga both impressed aplenty last season. And while San Francisco's top pick from the 2023 NFL Draft, Penn State's Ji'Ayir Brown, might not push out someone like Gipson right away, the 49ers will likely use the rookie in a variety of ways in year one.
George Odum is a top backup at safety, too, rounding out the group at four even if defensive coordinator Steve Wilks hand-picked former Panthers defensive back Myles Hartsfield via NFL free agency. In the wake of Wilks' comments about the secondary, it appears as if another free-agent pickup in Isaiah Oliver will occupy the starting nickel role.
That said, the No. 2 boundary cornerback role appears to be up for grabs.
Deommodore Lenoir played here for the latter two-thirds of 2022 after now-Detroit Lions corner Emmanuel Moseley suffered a torn ACL, and the former seems to be the favorite.
Could another rookie, Darrell Luter Jr., push him though?
If Luter ascends, it's not good news for fringe players like Ambry Thomas or Qwuantrezz Knight.
49ers roster bubble watch: Linebacker
Lock: Oren Burks, Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner
Strong bubble: Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, Marcelino McCrary-Ball, Dee Winters*
Weak bubble: Jalen Graham*, Curtis Robinson
Long shot: Mariano Sori-Marin*
Despite losing Azeez Al-Shaair in NFL free agency, the Niners still boast one of the best linebacker corps in the league heading into 2023, thanks largely to Dre Greenlaw and All-Pro Fred Warner.
Oren Burks' value on special teams (plus his $1.092 million in dead money, if cut) keeps him safely on the 53-man roster, too, leaving one or perhaps two more linebacker spots up for grabs.
Rookie Dee Winters stands a strong chance after his impressive efforts at TCU and despite being drafted in Round 5, yes, but Winters wasn't a positive standout during rookie minicamp. Instead, seventh-round rookie Jalen Graham was.
That might not be enough to put Graham onto the strong bubble, but it's worth monitoring now.
San Francisco will likely have to decide between Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles and Marcelino McCrary-Ball if it keeps a fifth linebacker.
49ers roster bubble watch: Defensive line
Lock: Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa, Kevin Givens, Javon Hargrave, Drake Jackson, Javon Kinlaw
Strong bubble: Robert Beal Jr.*, Clelin Ferrell, Kerry Hyder Jr.
Weak bubble: Alex Barrett, Kalia Davis, Austin Bryant
Long shot: T.Y. McGill, Marlon Davidson, Spencer Waege*
The 49ers defensive line is a bit topheavy, but it should be. Especially with the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Nick Bosa, in town. And after adding former Philadelphia Eagles star defensive tackle Javon Hargrave in NFL free agency, the other pieces are quite ancillary.
Hargrave isn't going to push out fellow defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, but the latter will see his role reduced to a backup one. And the Niners will hope for some depth defensive tackles like Kalia Davis or Kerry Hyder made a solid impact.
But the real question is at the No. 2 edge-rushing spot opposite Bosa. Last year, San Francisco relied upon Samson Ebukam and Charles Omenihu, both of whom left in free agency.
Will it be second-year pro Drake Jackson finally filling into form, literally and figuratively? Or can one of the 49ers' two reclamation free-agent projects, Austin Bryant or Clelin Ferrell, provide a spark?
Maybe it'll be the raw-but-promising rookie, Georgia's Robert Beal Jr., whom the Niners grabbed in Round 5 of the draft.
Whatever the case, this position battle should be a fun one to watch.
49ers roster bubble watch: Offensive line
Lock: Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Spencer Burford, Jon Feliciano, Colton McKivitz, Trent Williams
Strong bubble: Jaylon Moore, Jason Poe, Matt Pryor, Nick Zakelj
Weak bubble: Leroy Watson
Long shot: Joey Fisher*, Alfredo Gutierrez, Keith Ismael, Corey Luciano*, Ilm Manning*
The Niners didn't use a draft pick on a rookie offensive lineman, but they did grab a few via undrafted free agency. Joey Fisher, however, couldn't finish a practice during rookie minicamp, which doesn't bode well for his roster chances.
But they were slim anyway.
He and the other UDFAs are going to have to overcome a number of free-agent veterans brought in during the offseason, such as Matt Pryor and Jon Feliciano. Of those two, Feliciano carries a contract worth $2.25 million guaranteed, whereas Pryor has zero.
Feliciano isn't going anywhere and likely occupies a role previously held by now-Tennessee Titans lineman Daniel Brunskill.
About the only major question facing San Francisco's O-line aside from depth is who plays at right tackle with Mike McGlinchey now a member of the Denver Broncos.
It appears as if Colton McKivitz is the favorite, for now.
49ers roster bubble watch: Tight end
Lock: George Kittle, Cameron Latu*
Strong bubble: Ross Dwelley, Brayden Willis*, Charlie Woerner
Weak bubble: None
Long shot: Troy Fumagalli
The 49ers again tried to find that No. 2 tight end to pair with George Kittle, and it sure helped the 2023 NFL Draft class was deep at the position.
Two of the Niners draftees, Alabama's Cameron Latu and Oklahoma's Brayden Willis, have their attractive traits that could earn them roster spots, although Latu seems to be in better shape as a third-round pick. Willis, meanwhile was a Round 7 selection.
Both players could feasibly push out either Ross Dwelley and/or Charlie Woerner, though, depending on whether or not Kyle Shanahan wants to keep three tight ends or four.
If it's four, both rookies could theoretically make the cut without San Francisco having to sacrifice veteran depth behind an injury-prone Kittle.
49ers roster bubble watch: Wide receiver
Lock: Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Ray-Ray McCloud III, Deebo Samuel
Strong bubble: Ronnie Bell*, Danny Gray
Weak bubble: Chris Conley, Tay Martin, Willie Snead IV
Long shot: Dazz Newsome, Isaiah Winstead*, Shae Wyatt*
Not quite as deep as the tight end class, the 49ers nevertheless used a draft pick on Michigan wideout Ronnie Bell in Round 7, and it's easy to argue he should have been drafted much higher.
Bell, who has already impressed a bunch in rookie minicamp, is in great shape to make the Niners' 53-man roster if Kyle Shanahan keeps six wideouts on the squad, yet Bell could potentially even challenge for a No. 5 role behind the obvious bunch of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud, all of whom have specific niche roles that won't change heading into 2023.
Would that push out second-year pro Danny Gray, though? Gray, the third-round draftee from a year ago fell out of favor following a strong preseason, and he caught one pass on seven targets for 10 yards.
While San Francisco probably isn't committed to giving up on Gray just yet, we've already seen what happens to wide receivers who fall into Shanahan's doghouse (see Dante Pettis in 2019 and 2020).
49ers roster bubble watch: Running back
Lock: Kyle Juszczyk, Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell
Strong bubble: Tyrion Davis-Price, Jordan Mason
Weak bubble: Ronald Awatt*, Khalan Laborn*
Long shot: Jack Colletto*
There's a decent amount of drama that'll play out at running back between now and Week 1. Aside from fullback Kyle Juszczyk, along with halfbacks Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell, the entire depth chart is fluid and could potentially make an impact.
Especially considering Kyle Shanahan's knack for finding hidden-gem undrafted free-agent tailbacks who make a difference. Last year, it was Jordan Mason. This year, it could be either Ronald Awatt out of UTEP or Khalan Laborn out of Marhsall.
Either player thriving would be bad news for second-year pro Tyrion Davis-Price, who was scantly used his rookie season after the 49ers took him with a third-round pick in the 2022 draft.
Davis-Price could potentially go the same route as another failed third-round pick, Trey Sermon, who was off the Niners roster after his unimpressive rookie year.
Those are all depth decisions, though. McCaffrey and Mitchell will be the leaders out of the backfield, assuming both can stay healthy and in tandem for a change.
49ers roster bubble watch: Quarterback
Lock: Sam Darnold, Brock Purdy
Strong bubble: Trey Lance
Weak bubble: Brandon Allen
Long shot: None
Ah, yes. The position everyone has been waiting for.
The duel between Brock Purdy and Trey Lance for the starting quarterback job hinges on a few different X-factors. First, Purdy is still recovering from offseason elbow surgery and might not be ready by Week 1, let alone training camp.
On top of that, Lance is going to have to outshine all competition by a wide margin between now and then, and even that might not save his roster spot with San Francisco if NFL Network's Ian Rapoport is correct about predicting the 49ers trade Lance this August to another quarterback-needy team.
That prediction is based on the premise that Lance would be in an awfully awkward situation behind Purdy and free-agent pickup Sam Darnold in the QB3 role.
Speaking of Darnold, he's not going anywhere. Not at $3.5 million of his $4.5 million one-year contract guaranteed.
If Lance winds up being moved, however, look for Brandon Allen to hang around as a third-stringer.