Niner Noise conducts a final roster-bubble analysis with the 49ers' preseason finale in the books and Week 1 just around the corner.
In case anyone was counting, the San Francisco 49ers went 1-2 during their 2023 preseason campaign with a victory over the Denver Broncos, bookmarked by losses versus the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers.
Those games don't matter, though, right?
Well, sort of. To the individual players, particularly those on the fringes of the offseason roster, preseason games mean a world of difference. One strong outing in an exhibition game can secure a roster spot, while a single gaffe on one snap can translate into being out of the NFL entirely only a few days later.
On Tuesday, Aug. 29, each team has to trim its offseason rosters down from 90 players to 53, and the Niners will be faced with plenty of their own tough choices, one of which was already made with the blockbuster trade of quarterback Trey Lance to the Dallas Cowboys.
That move, combined with some injuries, shakes up what was our previous bubble-watch report from earlier in the preseason.
Now, with roster cuts looming, let's look at who's on the bubble and who's safe, using the standard criteria we always use:
- Lock: Barring injury or something crazy, you're not going anywhere
- Strong bubble: Can't quite call you a lock, but things are looking pretty good
- Weak bubble: A whole heck of a lot has to go your way to make the cut
- Long shot: Don't go away angry, just go away
Normally, we kick this off on special teams where there's never any drama.
But there is now, unfortunately, and it's not of the good variety.
* denotes rookie
All salary cap and contractual information, courtesy of Over the Cap.
49ers special teams
Lock: Mitch Wishnowsky, Taybor Pepper
Strong bubble: Jake Moody*
Weak bubble: Zane Gonzalez
Long shot: None
San Francisco has not just one, but two injured kickers, the details of which aren't totally clear yet but cast a shadow over what head coach Kyle Shanahan plans on doing and what was on full display in the preseason finale versus the Bolts.
And, no. Punter Mitch Wishnowsky isn't going to be attempting field goals and extra points.
Shanahan told reporters that veteran Zane Gonzalez is going to "miss a few weeks" with a calf strain, which means the 49ers will likely place him on an injury list to open up the year because they can't cut him outright without an injury settlement, and there's no reason to waste a roster spot to transition Gonzalez from a physically unable-to-perform (PUP) list to injured reserve to open up the year.
The Niners probably go with a waived/injured designation here with the possibility of him going unclaimed and landing on injured reserve with San Francisco.
Rookie Jake Moody, meanwhile, is out with a quad injury, and his timetable for a return is unknown.
He's eligible for the same kind of treatment as Gonzalez, except San Francisco would keep a roster spot for Moody, potentially placing him on IR to open up the regular season if necessary.
Is Robbie Gould available and open to return to the 49ers in the interim?
49ers defensive backfield
Lock: Ji'Ayir Brown*, Tashaun Gipson, Talanoa Hufanga, George Odum, Isaiah Oliver, Charvarius Ward, Samuel Womack, Deommodore Lenoir
Strong bubble: Qwuantrezz Knight, Ambry Thomas,
Weak bubble: D'Shawn Jamison*, Darrell Luter Jr.*, Myles Hartsfield
Long shot: Nate Brooks, A.J. Parker, Tayler Hawkins
So far, our count has eight defensive backs making the 53-man roster: four safeties and four cornerbacks.
Three of the five starting jobs are accounted for with Tashaun Gipson and Talanoa Hufanga starting at safety, while Charvarius Ward is the No. 1 cornerback. Deommodore Lenoir isn't quite locked in as the No. 2 boundary option, but he's easily earned a roster spot, based both on what he did late last season and his efforts all over the secondary during training camp.
Additionally, second-year pro Samuel Womack impressed a lot during the preseason.
However, two of new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks' hand-picked additions, Myles Hartsfield and Isaiah Oliver, have failed to impress much at all this preseason.
Hartsfield has zero in guaranteed money, so he might be an easy cut on Tuesday, but Oliver is due $2.91 million in guaranteed money over his two-year free-agent deal signed earlier this offseason. He's not going anywhere.
Darrell Luter Jr., Tayler Hawkins and A.J. Parker are all dealing with injuries, but Luter is probably the one the 49ers have the most invested in right now.
His absence, and likely placement on an injury list to open up the year, potentially opens up the door for undrafted rookie D'Shawn Jamison, who had an intriguing camp and preseason.
49ers linebacker
Lock: Oren Burks, Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner
Strong bubble: Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, Jalen Graham*, Dee Winters*
Weak bubble: Marcelino McCrary-Ball
Long shot: Curtis Robinson, Kyahva Tezino*
While the Niners' secondary is intriguing, the linebacker group is going to be awfully challenging.
Three spots are accounted for with Oren Burks' special teams prowess earning him a job, while no one will question Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw as two of the best linebackers in the NFL right now, not even NFL.com.
Things get challenging after that, however.
Second-year pro Marcelino McCrary-Ball didn't exactly overtake Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles or either of the two rookies, Dee Winters and Jalen Graham, during preseason action. And one could make the argument that Graham, a seventh-round selection, was more impressive than the sixth-round pick, Winters, from training camp through Week 3 of the preseason.
Perhaps San Francisco keeps one veteran and one rookie of that final bunch, and a hunch would be Flannigan-Fowles and Graham for now.
49ers defensive line
Lock: Arik Armstead, Clelin Ferrell, Javon Hargrave, Kerry Hyder, Drake Jackson, Javon Kinlaw
Strong bubble: Alex Barrett, Robert Beal Jr.*, Nick Bosa, Kevin Givens
Weak bubble: La'Darius Hamilton, Austin Bryant, Marlon Davidson, Kalia Davis
Long shot: Breeland Speaks, Spencer Waege*, T.Y. McGill
Did you just see All-Pro edge Nick Bosa on the strong bubble of the 53-man roster?
Yes. Yes, you did.
Bosa, should he not come to an agreement for a contract extension prior to Week 1, could wind up on the reserve/did not report list where he's at right now, meaning he won't count for a spot on the 53-man roster.
Let's hope both Bosa and the 49ers alleviate that soon, though.
Clelin Ferrell, a former Raiders castoff who was drafted the same year as Bosa and at No. 4 overall, secured a roster spot with a strong preseason campaign. Another castoff, Austin Bryant, failed to do so, however, even though the Niners would dish out $550,000 in dead money if they elect to release him.
Against Los Angeles, the versatile Kerry Hyder made his presence felt, and San Francisco appreciates his ability to step in as a useful reserve, which means he'll make the 53-man roster.
49ers offensive line
Lock: Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Spencer Burford, Jon Feliciano, Colton McKivitz, Trent Williams
Strong bubble: Jaylon Moore, Jason Poe, Matt Pryor
Weak bubble: Joey Fisher*, Corey Luciano*, Ilm Manning*, Leroy Watson, Nick Zakelj
Long shot: Alfredo Gutierrez, Keith Ismael
The 49ers' starting offensive line is set, and they're all locks with Jon Feliciano performing the Daniel Brunskill-like role of being an uber-backup for multiple spots.
The Niners' depth, however, is questionable at best.
Jaylon Moore, who was pegged as a primary swing tackle, suffered a bone bruise during training camp and subsequently struggled during the preseason, opening up the door for Matt Pryor to potentially take that job. Likewise, second-year pro Nick Zakelj probably played himself out of a roster spot by averaging at least two holding penalties per game during the preseason.
Yet his likely departure could be made up for by the development of a promising rookie like the undrafted Ilm Manning, who shined enough to be a dark horse for the 53-man roster.
The practice squad is more likely for Manning in year one, though, which is how second-year pro Jason Poe started off his NFL career, and he potentially secures a backup job after solid work this preseason.
49ers tight end
Lock: George Kittle
Strong bubble: Ross Dwelley, Charlie Woerner
Weak bubble: Troy Fumagalli, Brayden Willis*
Long shot: Cameron Latu*
Rookie tight end Cameron Latu might actually be relieved at the meniscus injury he suffered during the preseason finale.
That injury probably saved his tenure with San Francisco after struggling with both drops and fumbles during camp and the preseason, both of which were probably going to ticket him to a quick cut after being drafted in Round 3 last April out of Alabama.
Instead, Latu probably winds up redshirting his rookie year on an injury list instead of making the 53-man roster.
As for the rest behind All-Pro George Kittle?
Well, it's about as fluid as it was before the 49ers drafted Latu and fellow rookie Brayden Willis.
49ers wide receiver
Lock: Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel
Strong bubble: Ronnie Bell*, Chris Conley, Willie Snead
Weak bubble: Tay Martin, Isaiah Winstead*
Long shot: Danny Gray, Ray-Ray McCloud, Anthony Miller
Injuries have made the Niners' wide receiver battle awfully intriguing in the wake of the preseason finale last Friday.
Danny Gray and Ray-Ray McCloud are both going to miss substantial regular-season time to open up the year because of injuries, meaning they won't make the original 53-man roster, which more or less opens up two "locks" that'll be up for grabs behind the big three of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings.
And, after such an impressive preseason, how could Kyle Shanahan keep rookie Ronnie Bell off the 53-man roster? Particularly with Bell doing a quality job in the return game, too.
With four spots accounted four, perhaps it winds up being the veteran, Chris Conley, edging out his competition for that fifth spot, assuming Shanahan keeps only that many.
49ers running back
Lock: Kyle Juszczyk, Jordan Mason, Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell
Strong bubble: Tyrion Davis-Price
Weak bubble: Jeremy McNichols
Long shot: Jack Colletto*, Brian Hill
Ironically, there isn't too much drama for San Francisco at running back with the preseason in the books.
About the only revelation is second-year pro Tyrion Davis-Price looking significantly better than the underwhelming rusher from a season ago. And while that might not translate into a roster spot, his chances of hanging around are drastically improved from what was originally thought closing out last season.
His hopes, and those of other tailbacks like Jeremy McNichols and Brian Hill, is that third-year pro Elijah Mitchell continues to deal with injuries, which did accompany him through camp and into the preseason.
That said, the 49ers are stacking all their hopes with the All-Pro, Christian McCaffrey, and it could be second-year pro Jordan Mason who serves as the primary backup this season.
49ers quarterback
Lock: Sam Darnold, Brock Purdy
Strong bubble: Brandon Allen
Weak bubble: None
Long shot: None
Ironically, the slide many of you were probably looking forward to reading is the one with the least amount of drama.
That's because the drama has already played out.
Trey Lance is no longer with San Francisco, clearing up any doubt as to what kind of quarterback room Kyle Shanahan will engineer. Once Lance lost the QB2 role to Sam Darnold, the 49ers' top pick from the 2021 NFL Draft was an excess commodity.
As unfortunate and disappointing as that situation is, it at least provides some clarity in the quarterback room heading forward, and it's pretty simple: Darnold backs up second-year pro Brock Purdy.
Now, Brandon Allen is the primary beneficiary of Lance's departure, but the former isn't quite guaranteed a roster spot just yet.
Shanahan could always opt to keep just two quarterbacks on the 53-man roster (even though he hasn't done that in recent years).