The 49ers need a little help, but they are firmly in the running for the top seed in the NFC playoff picture with five weeks left in the regular season.
There are five weeks left to play in the 2023 regular season. The NFC playoff picture is starting to take shape.
With the San Francisco 49ers' Week 13 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday, the top overall seed in the conference is in play.
Let's look at what needs to happen for the Niners, currently the No. 2 seed in the NFC, to have home-field advantage throughout the postseason while securing a first-round bye during the Wild Card round.
Current NFC playoff seeding entering Week 13
- Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)*
- San Francisco 49ers (9-3)*
- Detroit Lions (9-3)*
- Atlanta Falcons (6-6)*
- Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
- Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
- Green Bay Packers (6-6)
*denotes division leader
Philly is still leading the conference despite losing to the Niners last Sunday, but San Francisco now holds a tiebreaker over Philadelphia, should the two teams finish the regular season with identical records.
Indeed, the 49ers can control half of that situation from here on out.
NFC playoff picture: What 49ers can control
San Francisco sits at 9-3, as do the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys. However, the 49ers have won their head-to-head matchups against both the Cowboys and Eagles, which is a crucial tiebreaker, depending on who winds up winning the NFC East.
A pair of 6-6 playoff hopefuls still sit three games back in the NFC West standings: the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks. The Niners host the Seahawks this Sunday and close out the regular season at home versus the Rams in Week 18.
As such, San Francisco's path to the No. 1 overall seed is pretty straightforward: win out and have a great chance. However, there is a challenging Week 16 contest as the 49ers host the playoff-bound Baltimore Ravens on Christmas Day.
The Niners could and should wrap up the regular season with a record of 14-3 or 13-4. They will need some other results to fall their way to secure the top overall seed, though.
What 49ers can't control
Currently, despite the win over Philadelphia, the 49ers are still a game behind the Eagles. The next two games for the NFC East leaders are both on the road against Dallas and Seattle. San Francisco fans (players and staff) may be watching these two games closely as this is the best chance for the Eagles to dip in the standings.
It's weird to think the 49ers and their fans may actually be rooting for two of their team's biggest rivals to win against Philly. But that's the case here.
For the Cowboys, they have a tougher close to the season as they host Philadelphia this week. Then, three of their final four games are on the road. Dallas will travel to take on the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins in consecutive weeks. Next, the Cowboys will host the NFC North leaders, the Lions.
No team in the NFC South can threaten the Niners' chances for the No. 1 seed, while Detroit has the same 9-3 record as San Francisco and no contest against each other during the regular season.
There is a Week 17 matchup on the road against Dallas for the Lions. Surrounding that is a pair of games versus the Minnesota Vikings.
San Francisco has an easier schedule than Dallas and Detroit to wrap up the regular season. As such, the No. 1 seed is well in play.
Wins from some AFC East teams against Dallas, a pair of wins from the New York Giants over the Eagles, and a pair of wins from Minnesota over Detroit can all help the 49ers out.
The Niners need to do what they do best: win games and ride their momentum to close the season. With the advantage of hosting the NFC Championship game, they would be in control of their destiny to return to the Super Bowl.