The 49ers face some tough decisions in NFL free agency in 2023, and Niner Noise predicts which players either return or sign elsewhere this offseason.
One of the challenges of being a good team is that it can get expensive.
Good teams are made up of good players, usually, and good players want to be rewarded accordingly. Since there’s this thing called the salary cap, it’s impossible for good teams to reward each of their good players the way they want to be rewarded.
Now that you understand the underlying theme of NFL free agency, it’ll be easier to understand why the San Francisco 49ers face some difficult choices heading into the 2023 league new year.
Currently, according to Over the Cap, the Niners have just $6.9 million available in cap space. With 20 rostered players set to become unrestricted free agents at the beginning of the NFL new year on March 15, it’ll be nearly impossible for general manager John Lynch and Co. to retain everyone they want to stick around.
No one can accurately say which pending free agents will be re-signed and which will walk.
However, let’s try our best to name off some of those who stick around in the Bay Area, and we’ll also figure out a few who’ll play elsewhere in 2023.
49ers NFL free agency prediction: Safety Jimmie Ward
Veteran safety Jimmie Ward was pushed into a nickel cornerback role last season, thanks to the shocking and pleasantly surprising play of fellow defensive back Tashaun Gipson.
Whether or not that frustrated the 31-year-old Ward is anyone’s guess, yet the longest-tenured San Francisco player could have priced himself out of the team’s price range anyway. Plus, at this stage of his career, Ward might be looking to capitalize on what could be his last big payout before retirement ultimately hits.
The 49ers have made Ward a priority before, and his versatility is always appreciated.
However, he might be looking to make well above $8 million per year, and that’s probably more than what the Niners would be comfortable paying him.
Prediction: Let walk
49ers NFL free agency prediction: Safety Tashaun Gipson
Jimmie Ward suffering an injury heading into the regular season last year opened up the door for Tashaun Gipson to become one of San Francisco’s best-unpredicted storylines of 2022.
Gipson, who was signed off the street as a free agent to fill Ward’s void, never gave the starting free safety job back even after Ward returned, and it might have been a good thing. After all, Gipson finished the season with five interceptions and eight passes broken up in a campaign that was reminiscent of his lone Pro Bowl year back with the Cleveland Browns in 2014.
At any rate, Gipson is admittedly mulling over retirement. However, he also admitted that he’d love to stay in the league if it meant returning to the 49ers.
Speaking from the NFL Scouting Combine over the weekend, John Lynch told the team’s website that there’s mutual interest between the Niners and Gipson returning.
As opposed to Ward, Gipson likely returns on a much cheaper deal.
Prediction: Re-sign
49ers NFL free agency prediction: Right tackle Mike McGlinchey
There are going to be a lot of San Francisco fans who’d be happy to see right tackle Mike McGlinchey depart in NFL free agency.
It makes some sense. McGlinchey has been frustrating at times, particularly in pass protection. And, when he’s been beaten, it’s looked woefully bad.
That said, simply bidding farewell to McGlinchey doesn’t exactly paint the 49ers’ offensive line into a better situation. No, the Niners will have to replace him, and this offseason isn’t exactly the best when it comes to finding an upgrade, either via free agency or the 2023 NFL Draft in late April.
Because of that market, McGlinchey is likely to have plenty of suitors, and John Lynch already told reporters he expects the 2018 first-round draft pick out of Notre Dame to price himself out of San Francisco’s comfort range and sign elsewhere.
Those fans who are happy to see McGlinchey go may not exactly be thrilled about whoever winds up replacing him.
Prediction: Let walk
49ers NFL free agency prediction: Center Jake Brendel
Like Tashaun Gipson, center Jake Brendel seriously outplayed what was expected of him going into 2022.
Never having served as a starter despite being in the league since 2016, the perennial journeyman backup ended up being about as reliable as they come, finishing the year having allowed only one sack and three quarterback hits.
Of course, this could ultimately price him out of the 49ers’ market, and few would blame either party for letting something like that happen.
However, it might actually be in Brendel’s best interest to stick around for at least another season.
For starters, 2022 was a perfect debut moment in a good situation within a good offense. He’s not guaranteed to get anything of the sort elsewhere. Plus, the Niners have historically preferred veteran centers over rookies and younger players.
So, even if San Francisco drafts a center this spring, Brendel would still be the favorite to start again in 2023.
And it’d probably be on an affordable deal, given that plenty of other potential suitors would want to see him back up that kind of play one more time before committing big money.
Prediction: Re-sign
49ers NFL free agency prediction: Kicker Robbie Gould
This one shouldn’t be all too hard.
Back when the 49ers shockingly used a franchise tag on veteran kicker Robbie Gould in 2019, subsequently signing him to a four-year extension, it was probably one of the more questionable allocations of financial resources for the franchise in recent memory.
No matter how any of it was justified, the Niners had to be happy when that contract finally expired regardless of how well Gould performed during that timeframe.
Besides, Gould apparently is looking to play elsewhere in 2023 anyway, as ESPN’s Adam Schefter pointed out:
Veteran kicker Robbie Gould said today that, as much as he enjoyed his last six seasons in San Francisco, he will test free agency later this month and be kicking elsewhere in 2023.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 4, 2023
Hey, it’s still commendable for the 40-year-old Gould to want to continue his career, though, right?
Prediction: Let walk
49ers NFL free agency prediction: Cornerback Emmanuel Moseley
Things get a little more challenging with cornerback Emmanuel Moseley than they do with Robbie Gould.
For starters, Moseley hasn’t exactly come out and said he’ll play elsewhere in 2023. After all, Moseley is likely much more concerned with recovering from the torn ACL he suffered way back in Week 5.
That’ll be something to monitor, yes. And it could ultimately drive down his asking price, too, meaning San Francisco could look to retain a starting-caliber cornerback for a significantly lower cost than what would have been the case if he had stayed healthy.
Tough for Moseley, perhaps, but it’s good for the 49ers. Plus, he’s been with the team his entire five-year career anyway.
Read More: 49ers 2023 free agency primer: Timeline, returning players and top targets
“We like Moseley, who he is as a person, who he is as a player,” John Lynch said. “He fits us well and so that’s a position that you always need depth, and if he can provide that I think it’s a good thing for us.”
It sounds like Lynch and the Niners are putting a priority on re-signing Moseley, which is a good thing.
49ers NFL free agency prediction: Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo
There are more than just a couple of reasons why San Francisco will finally, finally bid farewell to veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason.
For starters, John Lynch effectively said as much not long ago.
Sure, Lynch and the 49ers said similar things last offseason, too, but the context in 2023 is vastly different, especially about Garoppolo being a free agent. That wasn’t the case last offseason.
Additionally, why would Garoppolo want to return to the Niners after they put him through some strikingly extreme awkwardness, first in 2021 by drafting quarterback Trey Lance and then again with all those failed trade talks in the 2022 offseason?
Garoppolo should be happy to leave.
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Even if he wanted to stay, it’s highly likely he vastly outpriced himself beyond what San Francisco could afford, especially in the wake of the New Orleans Saints signing former Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr to a four-year deal worth $150 million.
Garoppolo should make a number not too far off from that, and the 49ers wouldn’t be able to absorb the cap hit this year.
It might be hard to fathom, but Jimmy G won’t be back in 2023.
Prediction: Let walk