The less said about the NFC Championship the better, but the fallout from the game means there’s a lot going on at quarterback for 2023 for the San Francisco 49ers.
Without going too much into the NFC Championship against the Philadelphia Eagles, which remains a fresh wound for us all, the injury to quarterback Brock Purdy has thrown a bit of a wrinkle into the San Francisco 49ers’ plans for the 2023 season.
After his extraordinary performance as the Niners’ starting quarterback in the latter stretch of the regular season, Purdy seemed assured of being the starter for San Francisco next year.
However, a torn UCL injury has thrown that into disarray.
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As of writing, Purdy has not made any decision regarding surgery. San Francisco is recommending surgery, but Purdy is seeking second opinions to see if that can be avoided.
Now, the important note here is while Purdy’s torn UCL is a serious injury, he did not in fact rupture it. A rupture is the worst-case scenario and requires Tommy John surgery, a procedure that would keep Purdy off the field for nine to 12 months.
A full tear (and surgery) will keep Purdy off the field for six months. Still, a serious amount of time, but provided Purdy’s recovery timetable is on schedule, he would be back in time for training camp.
Purdy would still be behind when it comes to physical training and he won’t be in organized team activities (OTAs), but it wouldn’t take him out for the entirety of the season either.
Either way, however, six months is probably the most likely timeline for the young quarterback to return to action which will, in turn, prompt action from San Francisco.
Will the 49ers roll with Trey Lance, who suffered his own disastrous injury way back in Week 2? Can Purdy return in time for Week 1 of the upcoming season? Or will the 49ers go for a home-run swing on someone who has been linked to the team for a few years now (you know who)?
Let’s take a look at the Niners’ quarterbacking landscape entering the offseason.
49ers QB option on the roster: Trey Lance
Trey Lance can best be described as the “winner” in this situation, although it’s pretty unfair to call anyone a winner in such an unfortunate situation, and Lance is hardly going to be happy for Brock Purdy to suffer a bad injury.
But right now, the 49ers will look to Lance as the presumptive starter for OTAs and perhaps camp as well, giving him a leg up and a big second chance to be the franchise player the 49ers envisioned when they traded up to select him.
There have been talks Lance could be traded, sure, but this wouldn’t make any sense. Lance would cost the Niners almost $10 million in dead cap space if he did get dealt.
Now, it’s true that there will be suitors. Not everybody that needs a quarterback will get one, and Lance is an intriguing option. But he comes with risk for teams, and they’re unlikely to part ways with trade capital to make the cap hit worth it.
In short, San Francisco would need to hope for a first-round NFL Draft pick from a desperate team. This is unlikely for Lance, to say the least, and it would require a team to be exceedingly desperate.
Lance may not have shown himself to be the franchise guy, but it’s unfair to call him a bust either. His Week 1 game against the Chicago Bears in monsoonal conditions isn’t exactly a fair representation of the skills of a quarterback, and another preseason can’t hurt either.
Lance will almost certainly be a 49er in 2023, but what he does during the season is up in the air.
49ers QB target: Tom Brady… still
Yes, I know we’re going to be sick of hearing about this link, but take your hand off that mouse because we need to talk about this situation like adults and look at this properly.
Tom Brady having one final season in the NFL with his boyhood team despite his recent retirement announcement (again)?
It’s a romantic idea, and the 49ers could certainly provide the team Brady needs for one more ring, but it doesn’t make sense for a few reasons even if we assume Brady’s second consecutive retirement announcement is fake.
First of all is the cap hit. Brady will not take a discount to sign with San Francisco, which means about $15 million to $30 million for the 49ers to find in their wallets to rent him for a year.
That money, it should be noted, has been earmarked for an extension for EDGE Nick Bosa, and while the salary cap is increasing, it would still be a tight fit even in a best-case scenario.
Also, while a situation would at least be plausible if Brock Purdy was out for the entire season, his slightly better prognosis has drastically changed this landscape. Unless the 49ers do find a good trade for Trey Lance, are they actually going to go with these three as a quarterback room?
It can’t be ruled out for certain, but unless Lance is wearing a different uniform in 2023, this isn’t happening to say the least.
The quarterback market (if 49ers trade Trey Lance)
If Trey Lance is traded and the Niners either miss out on Tom Brady or decide to pass on him, then the question is which veteran quarterback will the team target.
It’s unlikely (though not impossible) San Francisco will invest draft picks on one, either in the draft or via trade, so the free-agent market is likely the place to look.
The 49ers aren’t exactly contenders to go after the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson if he does make it to the market, so the question is what quarterbacks are available who are dependable backups and can also safely “hold down the fort” if called upon.
And let’s face it, the team has had to call on backups to hold the fort a lot more than most teams.
There are three names on the free-agent list that fit this mold and could be a source of interest if the team goes down this route. Specifically, Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett and Cooper Rush.
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All three quarterbacks aren’t talented enough to be full-time starters in this league, but they’ve done good jobs on talented teams when called upon, recently, and could be a perfect fit for San Francisco.
Even better, they’re not going to be prohibitively expensive either, making it a much more attractive proposition for a team that needs to make sure its own players get paid.
The quarterback landscape is an interesting one for San Francisco, and there’s certainly going to be no shortage of rumors surrounding the team for a while.