Experts might be predicting a close game between the 49ers and Cowboys in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, but the Niners hold all the cards.
If the San Francisco 49ers’ desperate Wild Card victory over the Dallas Cowboys a year ago wasn’t enough for fans who are eager to see this decades-old rivalry resparked, the grudge match between both teams in this season’s divisional round of the NFL playoffs should only serve to add more storybook drama to the hatred the two fanbases have felt toward each other over the years.
Yes, Dallas knocked off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in decisive fashion during the Wild Card round last weekend on Monday night, while the Niners demolished another rival in the Seattle Seahawks despite a sluggish first half.
Unlike the Bucs and Hawks, both San Francisco and Dallas possess offenses and defenses that finished in the top 10 during the regular season. Based on that alone, one might predict Sunday’s divisional-round contest between these two storied rivals will be an awfully close game, and the betting odds seem to point in that direction with the 49ers currently a 3.5-point favorite, according to DraftKings.
Don’t let that fool you, however. The Niners have all the advantages in their favor, and it extends far beyond home-field advantage and being the higher seed.
Advantage No. 1: 49ers are the home team with an extra day’s rest
San Francisco beat Seattle at home on a Saturday, while Dallas had to travel to Florida to knock off Tampa Bay on Monday night.
From a rest-and-recovery perspective, the 49ers have two additional days’ advantage. And that’s something NBC Sports’ Tony Dungy pointed out as why the Niners have a massive edge here:
As good as the Cowboys looked tonight I think they have very little chance against the 49ers next week and it’s not their fault. There are very few examples EVER of teams winning Monday night road game then Sunday road game. Now give SF ( a great team) an extra day of rest. Tough pic.twitter.com/zmwAu8I7jv
— Tony Dungy (@TonyDungy) January 17, 2023
Forget about matchups, Xs and Os, turnover differential and all of that. The Cowboys will be at a disadvantage after having to travel on such a short week while making trips to both coasts.
Perhaps San Francisco comes out fresh and rested on Sunday, whereas Dallas is at serious risk of playing the game with far less intensity.
Advantage: 49ers
Advantage No. 2: 49ers don’t throw interceptions, Cowboys do
OK, so there might not be a total edge for either team in turnover differential. The Niners are No. 1 in the NFL at plus-13, whereas the Cowboys are No. 2 at plus-10.
In the grand scheme of things, that’s pretty close. Especially when considering Dallas ranked tops in the league at forcing turnovers with 33. San Francisco was directly behind at 30 defensive takeaways.
However, the 49ers do hold an advantage in the interception department. In short, quarterbacks (including rookie Brock Purdy) haven’t tossed too many interceptions this year.
#49ers interceptions-thrown per game is 3rd in the NFL (good) while Cowboys rank 28th (bad).
— Steph Sanchez (@Steph49K) January 18, 2023
Purdy didn’t toss a pick in the win over Seattle, and he threw only four during his regular-season efforts.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, meanwhile, was tied for a league-most 15 interceptions thrown on the year. And his interception percentage of 3.8 was the highest among qualifying signal-callers, too.
For a Niners defense that recorded an NFL-best 20 interceptions this year, this trend is awfully juicy.
Advantage: 49ers
Advantage No. 3: Cowboys can’t defend WR2s
Stats and rankings are always a bit misleading, and there’s a clear-cut example why that applies here.
On the surface, Dallas owns the NFL’s fifth-best scoring defense, and its pass defense finished the regular season ranked eighth best in yards allowed (3,415). Tack on All-Pro cornerback Trevon Diggs, who had a slightly down year in 2022 but still made the Pro Bowl regardless, it’s not hard to see why the Cowboys are pretty good, defensively.
Especially with Defensive Player of the Year candidate, linebacker Micah Parsons, in the fray as well.
However, as noted by Niners Nation’s Akash Anavarathan below, the pass defense drops off significantly after defending the first wide receiver on the depth chart:
The Cowboys’ defense is 32nd in DVOA defending WR2 this season.
— Akash Anavarathan (@akashanav) January 17, 2023
They give up the MOST yards per game to WR2 this season at 63.7 yards per game.
Good luck defending Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
From a statistical perspective, Brandon Aiyuk had been San Francisco’s top wide receiver during the regular season, even though Deebo Samuel was the bigger threat by far.
Either way, the Cowboys are going to have issues defending both players, and anyone who watched Aiyuk torch Diggs last year in the postseason can recall how this man-coverage matchup favors the 49ers offense.
Not Dallas’ defense.
Advantage: 49ers
The Niners and Cowboys kick off on Sunday, Jan. 22 at 6:30 p.m. ET from Levi’s Stadium.