49ers vs. Raiders: Quarterback change impacts these Week 17 prop bets
By Peter Panacy
The 49ers won’t face Derek Carr when they visit the Raiders on New Year’s Day, meaning these prop bets are going to be much more interesting.
In the long run, the Las Vegas Raiders are probably saying goodbye to their franchise quarterback, Derek Carr, who was benched by head coach Josh McDaniels earlier this week in favor of the backup, Jarrett Stidham.
In the short-term scheme of things, the San Francisco 49ers probably don’t care too much about what happens with Carr, McDaniels, Stidham and the Raiders this upcoming offseason. No, the Niners are merely concerned with Stidham and what Las Vegas will try doing when both teams square off on New Year’s Day for their Week 17 matchup at Allegiant Stadium.
San Francisco originally opened up as a 5.5-point road favorite, according to the oddsmakers at DraftKings. However, in the wake of Carr’s demotion, lines have now swayed all the way to the 49ers being 9.5-point favorites.
It’s not hard to see why. Stidham prompts a serious drop in the Raiders’ chances of both winning outright and covering the spread.
Especially matching up against the Niners’ top-ranked defense.
There are other betting interests impacted by the change-up under center, too, including these prop bets that’ll likely gain much more attention with San Francisco now honing its attention on Stidham instead of Carr.
49ers vs. Raiders prop bet No. 1: Davante Adams receiving yards (over/under 58.5)
Carr’s favorite target, All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams, is going to have a much more challenging outing with Stidham under center.
Yes, Adams has tormented the 49ers over his career and has averaged 120 yards per game against them in four contests. Yet those were all with the Green Bay Packers and with a future Hall of Famer in Aaron Rodgers under center.
The over/under on Adams’ receiving yards for Sunday is 58.5, and the moneyline for each is -110.
The under, anyone?
49ers vs. Raiders prop bet No. 2: Niners defensive touchdown (+500)
Perhaps these betting odds would have been just as good with Carr under center as Stidham, as McDaniels did say the former’s turnover issues were a prime reason why he was benched.
Yet Stidham also flashed a reputation for turning the ball over during his moderately extended playing time with the New England Patriots back in 2020 in which he tossed three interceptions on 44 pass attempts for an interception percentage of 6.8 (that’s high).
The Niners already have two defensive touchdowns on the season, and +500 odds might be worthwhile if Stidham is pressured into making another mistake again.
49ers vs. Raiders prop bet No. 3: Niners hold Vegas to less than 16.5 points (-115)
It seemed like an anomaly when the Washington Commanders scored 20 points against San Francisco, albeit the 49ers won 37-20.
Still, the Niners are allowing an average of just 15.3 points per game this season, and that includes some of those ugly outings against the Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons from earlier this year.
Sure, Las Vegas enters the game with the NFL’s 12th-best scoring offense. However, putting Stidham in under center is likely going to alter that a lot.
Read More: 49ers-Raiders injury report: Deebo Samuel ruled OUT for Week 17
When the Raiders have lost as of late, they haven’t mustered much offense at all: 16 points against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14, followed by a mere 10 against the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend.
Look for San Francisco to continue that trend with a -115 moneyline to hold Vegas to 16 points or less.
49ers vs. Raiders prop bet No. 4: Brock Purdy tosses 2-plus TDs (-125)
While a quarterbacking battle between Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo shouldn’t get too many fans excited, it’s probably what most were anticipating for this late-season bout.
Instead, it’s Stidham versus the rookie, Brock Purdy.
Purdy has been excellent since taking over starting duties for the injured Garoppolo in Week 13, and he’s done well against some solid defenses, too, including those of both the Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Including that Week 13 game against the Miami Dolphins, Purdy has tossed precisely two touchdowns in each game since. And the Raiders defense is nowhere near as deep or as talented as those of the Bucs and Commanders.
It seems to be a safe bet to assume Purdy continues throwing multiple touchdowns in this one with a -125 moneyline.
The 49ers and Raiders kick off on Sunday, Jan. 1 at 4:05 p.m. ET from Allegiant Stadium.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.