49ers playoff picture: Ranking potential Wild Card opponents

49ers Wild Card opponent No. 2: Washington Commanders

I know what you’re thinking: The Commanders are maybe the team with the least likely chance of even making the playoffs, let alone facing off against the 49ers.

And, yes, like the Giants, they feature an offense that is not exactly fear-inducing.

The Commanders aren’t even scoring 20 points per game (they sit at 18.9 coming into Week 16), have yet to get over the 4,800-yard total for the season, and are a bottom-six offense overall per DVOA (27th, minus-13 percent), featuring a bottom-five passing attack (28th, minus-8.1 percent) and a barely better running game (25th, minus-12.1 percent).

So, why in the world are they ahead of an admittedly mediocre Giants squad and also a Detroit team that has been surging on offense throughout most of the season?

Three words: top 10 defense.

While they started 1-4 with Carson Wentz at quarterback and a defense that was still trying to figure itself out, they’ve been much better since Taylor Heinicke stepped in, galvanizing the team and leading it to a 5-2-1 record.

This isn’t to say that the Commanders are a better offensive team with Heinicke because the two quarterbacks have put up almost identical numbers since the former Carolina Panthers’ signal-caller stepped in for their Week 7 win over the Green Bay Packers. But the defense seems to have picked up some of the slack en route to a much steadier ship over that period.

A lot of the Commanders’ success has been because their defense keeps them in games. Does the offense score fewer than 20 points? Yes, but the defense allows fewer than 20 per game as well.

That defense is good enough for 10th in the NFL, per DVOA (minus-4.9 percent), and while their passing defense isn’t spectacular (15th, 3.2 percent), their rushing defense should be of concern to the 49ers: they’re fifth at minus-15.6 percent (by comparison, the Niners are tied for first with the Tennessee Titans by this metric at minus-23.4 percent).

This means the Niner may have to lean on rookie quarterback Brock Purdy (who I can’t believe has gone unmentioned to this point) to beat the Commanders.

You aren’t too worried about the Washington offense doing much against the Niners’ defense, but, as has often been the case for the Commanders this season, you are concerned about the Washington defense holding its own long enough to keep Heinicke and the pesky Commanders in the game.

The good news is we’ll get a sense of how this matchup looks on Christmas Eve when Washington travels to Levi’s Stadium to take on the 49ers.

Maybe it’s a preview of things to come.