Predicting 49ers final 5 games to make a playoff run
Week 14: 49ers vs. Buccaneers
Sunday, Dec. 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET
It’s weird to say this, but San Francisco’s next game has got to be one of the strangest matchups left on the schedule.
On paper, this one has been a highlight of the season since the schedule dropped during the offseason: Tom Brady returning to face off against the team he grew up rooting for, two teams that were thought to be among the top contenders in the NFC, And post the Trey Lance injury, Brady up against his old backup, Jimmy Garoppolo.
The season has not been kind to those expectations, however.
The Bucs are 6-6 and have been one of the NFL’s worst offenses by many metrics, especially as a rushing attack, where they rank last in the league in yards, touchdowns, and yards per attempt and 31st in attempts.
Brady and the offense have only managed 20 total touchdowns this season while averaging just a hair over 18 points per game, a figure that’s only 27th in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the 49ers will run Brock Purdy out, a kid who noted he is younger than Brady’s football career. Still, the Niners’ offense scored 26 points on Sunday against Miami with Purdy at the helm, a full touchdown plus a two-point conversion more than Tampa’s season average.
The matchup should tilt on the defenses.
San Francisco’s defense is in the top 10 in a slew of counting stat categories, including scoring (first), total yards (first), first downs allowed (first), passing touchdowns allowed (third), interceptions (fourth), passing yards allowed per attempt (ninth), rushing yards allowed (first), and rushing yards allowed per attempt (first).
And advanced metrics, such as Football Outsiders’ DVoA, are also kind to the 49ers’ defensive unit. They rank second in total defense (-15.1 percent), sixth against the pass (-9.1 percent), and second against the run(-24.6 percent) so far in 2022.
Tampa Bay is no slouch on that side of the ball, however. The Bucs rank fifth in points allowed, eighth in yards allowed, and seventh in passing yards allowed. DVoA has them as the NFL’s eighth-best defense overall (-8.4 percent), including eighth against the pass (-5.0 percent) and 10th against the run (-13.1 percent), suggesting they’re stronger against the ground game than their raw yards (1,421 on 317 attempts, or 4.5 yards per carry) might show.
The question will be who can overcome the opposing defense the best. And, in spite of the quarterback matchup favoring Tampa Bay, there’s little reason to think that the Bucs will be able to score much on this 49ers’ defense.
That means Purdy and the offense won’t need to put up a ton of points to win and push the Niners’ win streak to six games.