With All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey coming to the 49ers, who wind up being the biggest winners and losers from the blockbuster deal?
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan had to be so frustrated with his lackluster rushing attack that he ultimately signed off on dishing out a massive chunk of NFL Draft capital to land arguably the best running back available leading up to the 2022 NFL trade deadline.
Now “former” Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey.
The move carries some risks. After already aggressively trading up to select quarterback Trey Lance in the 2021 draft, resulting in the Niners not having a Round 1 pick in 2023, what few picks they did have left are now heading Carolina’s way.
And McCaffrey, who has been banged up for the bulk of the last two seasons after his 2019 first-team All-Pro nod, doesn’t come as a rental player. No, he’s under contract through 2025 and will make up to almost $20 million in 2023.
At any rate, those are problems for another day, and Shanahan should feel a bit better about getting a fresh spark for what was otherwise an inconsistent and sometimes stagnant offense.
If Shanahan wins, who are the other winners and losers from the blockbuster transaction?
49ers winner: Christian McCaffrey
It’s about the best possible outcome for McCaffrey, and he has to be classified as the big winner here.
Carolina, in the wake of firing head coach Matt Rhule after San Francisco soundly beat his former team in Week 5, is looking at an awfully long rebuild. McCaffrey, considering the length and expense of his deal, could have been a building-block piece. However, at 26 years old, he would have been hitting the tail end of his career by the time the Panthers were likely back in playoff contention.
Instead, McCaffrey goes to a run-first offense that likes to utilize pass-catching running backs in the receiving game, and the 49ers are playoff-ready right now.
And McCaffrey won’t have to worry about coming in and having to compete for anyone’s job.
It’s his by default.
49ers loser: Elijah Mitchell
There’s a very real chance that fans will eventually ask themselves, “what could have been?” when thinking about running back Elijah Mitchell’s career.
The Niners’ 2021 sixth-round pick set a franchise record for a rookie with 963 yards and did so over just 11 games while dealing with multiple injuries. Heading into year two, it was fair to wonder if Mitchell would emerge as a household name.
There’s still time for that, yes. But after Mitchell suffered an MCL sprain way back in Week 1 and was shelved on injured reserve, it’s highly possible San Francisco wanted to find someone who could handle a bigger load while providing significantly more impact.
Christian McCaffrey’s recent injury history is concerning, yes, but he’s exceptionally more impactful.
Now, when Mitchell does return from his own injury, he’ll no longer be RB1 on the depth chart.
And that might lead to him being a relatively forgotten commodity, particularly within the 49ers’ ranks.
49ers winner: Deebo Samuel
On the surface, it might not seem as if “wide back” Deebo Samuel wins in this situation. After all, Christian McCaffrey is going to cut into Samuel’s touches, both as a pass-catcher and as a rusher. And with numerous run-based incentives worked into Samuel’s extension he signed earlier the last offseason, it’s likely those efforts and stats will take a serious hit.
That’s the short-term prognosis, though.
The cold, hard reality of the situation is exposing Samuel to more rushing touches will inevitably shorten his career, particularly those where he’s being asked to split in between the tackles against bigger-bodied defenders.
Sure, Kyle Shanahan isn’t going to completely shy away from deploying Samuel as a running back, and McCaffrey’s presence should, at least in theory, open up the playbook to an even greater extent.
But, in terms of prolonging Samuel’s career and allowing him to stay healthy, having McCaffrey certainly does create a winning situation for the Niners’ top offensive weapon.
49ers loser: Tyrion Davis-Price
Yes, it’d be fair to list the fill-in starter at running back, Jeff Wilson Jr., as a loser in the wake of the Christian McCaffrey trade.
But Wilson was likely never going to be tabbed as the top rusher this season, and signs were pointing to him losing his role once Elijah Mitchell returned to the fray. That was the case all along.
McCaffrey’s addition does, however, cast some serious doubts as to whether or not San Francisco will ever get much out of its 2022 rookie running back addition, Tyrion Davis-Price, who is also on the mend with an injury and hasn’t made much of a statistical impact this season whatsoever.
Davis-Price might still be something of a short-yardage tailback, and that was an area in which the 49ers struggled in 2021, all but leading them to take the flier on the former LSU product.
Yet the longer shadow gets cast on the Niners’ attempts to infuse talent at the position so early in the draft, namely with no-longer-with-the-team running back Trey Sermon in 2021 and now Davis-Price most recently.
Barring some sort of unforeseen turnaround, Davis-Price is never going to be a standout star in San Francisco.
49ers winner: Jimmy Garoppolo
Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has to be stoked at the 49ers grabbing one of the more unique offensive weapons available on the market this offseason.
Sure, Garoppolo and the Niners offense haven’t exactly blown up the stat sheet this year despite having playmaking talents like Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle and fellow wideout Brandon Aiyuk.
But, when things aren’t going well, there’s always room for improvement, and McCaffrey offers that.
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McCaffrey is one of the NFL’s smoother route-runners over the middle of the field, precisely the area where Garoppolo loves to target. That’s an automatic boost right there for Garoppolo’s prowess, and the fact McCaffrey will add some respect to San Francisco’s otherwise anemic rushing offense should create plenty of additional opportunities for play-action passing, another area in which Garoppolo thrives.
With the 49ers barely averaging 20 points per game, Garoppolo and Co. have to take comfort in knowing there’s yet another massive weapon to make a substantial impact.