Trey Lance injury may open worst-case scenario for 49ers

The 49ers should be able to manage losing Trey Lance for the year in the interim, but the long-term impacts could be absolutely devastating.

On paper, the San Francisco 49ers don’t suffer too much of a regression going from quarterback Trey Lance to the veteran, Jimmy Garoppolo, in the wake of Lance’s devastating season-ending ankle injury during the Niners’ Week 2 victory over the Seattle Seahawks.

Heck, some may even argue San Francisco is in a better position now with Garoppolo than it would have been with Lance.

Whether or not that’s the case isn’t the point here.

What’s more glaring is the fact the 49ers’ prized investment from the 2021 NFL Draft, one which required two additional first-round picks, will have spent the bulk of two years seeing awfully minimal time on the field.

Field time Lance desperately needed.

Trey Lance will have scarcely seen the field in 3 years

One of the major knocks against Lance entering his first full year as a starter was the notable lack of experience, and the only way to get that experience was to actually play.

Something he hasn’t exactly done a lot of in recent years.

The last time Lance made it through a full season was back in 2019 when he was still at North Dakota State, enjoying the kind of success that helped convince the Niners he was worth the investment.

Since then, Lance saw one game with the Bison in 2020 before the pandemic ended that campaign, made it through two starts and a second-half relief effort for Garoppolo in 2021 and now added a mere six quarters of action in 2022 before being relegated to a season-ending injury.

Those are the facts. And they don’t paint a good picture of his long-term future.

Related Story: 3 ramifications 49ers will feel from Trey Lance injury

As was the reasonable conclusion heading into Lance’s first full year as a projected starter, no one knows for certain whether or not he’ll live up to his lofty draft billing, thereby justifying San Francisco’s hefty investment.

And those answers are now put off for another full year.

Worst-case scenario for Trey Lance, 49ers is now fully on the table

Using the word “may” in the title of this piece is key here. It’s certainly within reason to predict Lance bouncing back better than ever from the injury en route to taking the league by storm in 2023 as the fully unquestioned starter for San Francisco.

Even if there’ll ultimately be no shortage of media chatter suggesting the 49ers should re-sign Garoppolo for next year, and you know that’s coming.

But let’s go ahead and assume Lance will be at that stage in his development where he was entering 2022: a player who had the tools but nevertheless needed a lot of refinement; refinement that was expected to be had over the entire course of this season.

It’ll be a full two years now before Lance is given that chance, and coupled with the nearly yearlong absence from games back in 2020, a three-year period of relative inaction is a lifetime when looking at any football player’s career trajectory.

What is the worst-case scenario for Trey Lance, 49ers?

The worst-case scenario is this: The Niners went all-in on Lance back in 2021 with the hopes of finding their franchise signal-caller for the next 10-plus years, but for whatever the reasons, that decision ultimately backfires.

Teams whiff on draft picks all the time, even high-profile ones. Yet the nature of San Francisco’s investment (a 2022 and 2023 first-round pick, plus a 2022 Round 3 selection) will exponentially magnify the disaster if Lance ultimately doesn’t pan out as planned.

While we’re not at that stage yet, not even close, it’s certainly a big part of the discussion now.

Why 49ers are now risking disaster with Trey Lance

Again, “may” is a keyword to note. “We still don’t know” is the more accurate takeaway here.

Lance will be two years into his rookie four-year deal signed after being drafted, and the 49ers will need to decide whether or not they want to pick up his fully guaranteed fifth-year option before the beginning of the 2024 season. Should Lance display the same rawness and inexperience over the course of 2023 upon his return, the Niners may be inclined to deny that option.

Sure, it doesn’t mean Lance will ultimately walk when those first four years are up, and an extension is always in play should that happen.

Yet San Francisco’s inevitable decision will be scrutinized even more by that point, and Lance will no longer have the bonus of a “learning year” as 2022 was intended to be.

Simply put, should Lance fail to impress enough upon his return in 2023, the 49ers may be forced into turning the page and admitting the investment in him didn’t pan out.

While it might not go down as the worst Niners draft pick of all time, it’ll certainly rank high on any such list, and the fact it’s a bigger part of the discussion now only serves to highlight the severity of the situation.