The 49ers kick off training camp this week, and before practices get underway, let’s break down which players are on the bubble and which ones are safe.
For nearly the last two months, there’s been no shortage of speculation about how the San Francisco 49ers’ 2022 roster will come together.
About the only evidence we’ve been able to use, of course, is each player’s projected role, contract information, how well those players performed during organized team activities and mandatory minicamp, NFL Draft status for rookies and so on.
Simply put, it’s mostly conjecture. It always is.
With training camp kicking off this week, though, fans and analysts alike will be presented with the best on-field evidence to help determine which 53 players head coach Kyle Shanahan will keep heading into the regular season.
Niner Noise already has a bubble watch in the wake of minicamp, yet those padless and tackle-less practices don’t reveal too much.
Training camp should.
So, as a preview piece, let’s break down the Niners’ roster bubble into our four usual categories:
- Lock
- Strong bubble
- Weak bubble
- Long shot
And we can begin our 2022 pre-training camp bubble watch by looking at a position that involves zero drama: special teams.
49ers training camp bubble watch: Special teams
Lock: Robbie Gould, Mitch Wishnowsky, Taybor Pepper
Strong bubble: None
Weak bubble: None
Long shot: None
San Francisco brought in precisely zero specialists during the offseason, meaning the special teams battery of kicker Robbie Gould, punter and holder Mitch Wishnowsky and long-snapper Taybor Pepper aren’t going anywhere.
While there’s likely to be some drama a little less than a year from now, as all three are scheduled for free agency, the 49ers can cross off these three roster spots as far as worry points are concerned.
Now, there may be some competition for the return game, gunners and coverage units, but let’s take a look at those players at their listed positions later.
49ers training camp bubble watch: Safety
Lock: Jimmie Ward, Talanoa Hufanga, George Odum
Strong bubble: Tarvarius Moore
Weak bubble: Leon O’Neal Jr.*
Long shot: Tayler Hawkins*
* denotes rookie
The Niners watched long-time starting strong safety Jaquiski Tartt sign a new deal with the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason, and they may have been hoping to insert second-year pro Talanoa Hufanga into the starting job all along anyway.
Hufanga received the bulk of first-team reps during offseason workouts, and it’s likely his job to lose once training camp commences.
This doesn’t bode well for veteran defensive back Talanoa Hufanga, though, who is trying to work his way back from a torn Achilles suffered last offseason that prematurely ended his 2021 campaign.
If San Francisco keeps Moore as a big-nickel safety, his roster spot is likely safe, while fifth-year veteran George Odum’s special teams prowess keeps him as a lock, too.
Whether or not Odum starts, however, is anyone’s guess.
As far as the two undrafted rookies, it’s feasible that neither winds up surviving roster cuts and making it onto the 53-man roster, yet a designation to the practice squad for one of them is certainly in play.
49ers training camp bubble watch: Cornerback
Lock: Emmanuel Moseley, Ambry Thomas, Charvarius Ward, Samuel Womack*
Strong bubble: Darqueze Dennard, Dontae Johnson, Jason Verrett
Weak bubble: Tariq Castro-Fields*, Ka’dar Hollman, Deommodore Lenoir
Long shot: Qwuantrezz Knight*
Once a glaring weakness, the 49ers tossed plenty of resources at cornerback this offseason, highlighted by the free-agent grab of former Kansas City Chiefs defensive back Charvarius Ward, who’ll be the de facto No. 1 boundary corner.
Who starts opposite him is anyone’s guess, and it could fall between Emmanuel Moseley and the re-signed Jason Verrett, the latter needing to prove he’s healthy after suffering a torn ACL tear in Week 1 a year ago and riding so many injuries over his pro career.
Likewise, second-year cornerback Ambry Thomas is a dark-horse candidate to potentially start.
Things get more intriguing at nickel back where the Niners lost veteran K’Waun Williams to free agency but hope to have filled the void by using a fifth-round NFL Draft pick on Samuel Womack, who impressed during OTAs and mandatory minicamp but still might not have completely separated himself from the veteran, Darqueze Dennard.
Assuming San Francisco keeps six cornerbacks, it might have enough room for only one more name, which points to either Dontae Johnson or another one of those names on the fringes of the roster needing to impress heavily during training camp.
The 49ers’ affinity with Johnson, though, suggests he’s the favorite, and they certainly appreciate his versatility and veteran prowess.
49ers training camp bubble watch: Linebacker
Lock: Azeez Al-Shaair, Oren Burks, Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner
Strong bubble: Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
Weak bubble: Jeremiah Gemmel*, Curtis Robinson
Long shot: Marcelino McCrary-Ball*, Segun Olubi*
Pro Football Focus recently ranked the Niners’ linebacker corps No. 1 overall in the NFL heading into 2022, and it’s not hard to understand why.
Headlined by All-Pro Fred Warner, San Francisco effectively has two high-quality starting-caliber options to support him, Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair, and those two will rotate in on sub packages when only two linebackers are on the field any given time.
That kind of flexibility is good to have.
After this starting trio, though, things are a bit murkier.
The 49ers appreciate Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles’ coverage and special teams abilities, so he might be the favorite for a fourth and possibly final spot on the 53-man roster. However, perhaps someone like undrafted free-agent Jeremiah Gemmel, whose leadership capabilities at North Carolina didn’t go unnoticed, winds up surprising during camp and either forces the Niners to keep five backers or does enough to push off someone like Flannigan-Fowles.
It’s likely special teams prowess winds up playing a deciding factor here.
49ers training camp bubble watch: Defensive line
Lock: Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa, Drake Jackson*, Javon Kinlaw, Hassan Ridgeway, Kemoko Turay
Strong bubble: Samson Ebukam, Kevin Givens, Maurice Hurst, Kerry Hyder Jr., Charles Omenihu, Jordan Willis
Weak bubble: Kevin Atkins*, Alex Barrett
Long shot: Kalia Davis*, Dee Ford
San Francisco is going to part ways with some starting-caliber defensive linemen after training camp. Simply put, it doesn’t have enough roster spots to keep everyone.
Three-fourths of the starting group is set with Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw and Pro Bowler Nick Bosa headlining the group, leaving a question of who starts opposite Bosa at defensive end. And while the 49ers used a second-round NFL Draft pick on former USC EDGE Drake Jackson, Jackson’s raw run-stopping abilities might relegate him to solely being a situational pass-rusher in year one.
That suggests EDGE Samson Ebukam, who came on strong last year and into the postseason, is the favorite to start. Yet the Niners could, according to Over the Cap, part ways with him and save $6.5 million in cap space against $1.75 million in dead money if they see another like Charles Omenihu or Kerry Hyder emerge as a better option.
Hyder’s $750,000 fully guaranteed money makes him a safer bet to hang around, while Omenihu and EDGE Jordan Willis command nothing by the way of guarantees.
San Francisco is fully expected to part ways with oft-injured EDGE Dee Ford between now and Week 1, even though that’ll be an expensive transaction, while rookie defensive tackle Kalia Davis is a candidate to start the year on the non-football injury list because of a torn ACL suffered at the collegiate level a year ago.
49ers training camp bubble watch: Offensive line
Lock: Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Daniel Brunskill, Spencer Burford*, Mike McGlinchey, Trent Williams
Strong bubble: Jaylon Moore, Justin Skule, Keaton Sutherland, Nick Zakelj*
Weak bubble: Dohnovan West*, Colton McKivitz
Long shot: Alfredo Gutierrez, Jason Poe*, Sam Schlueter*
Like the defensive line, the 49ers have plenty of options how to round out the depth chart. Unlike the D-line, the Niners have far more question marks and worry points.
About the only non-concerning spots are at the starting tackle roles with Trent Williams on the left and Mike McGlinchey on the right, and even McGlinchey is working his way back from a torn quad suffered last season. And while all signs point to him being ready by training camp, his health will still be something to monitor.
That pushes the need for a quality swing tackle into the forefront, and it’s a job San Francisco appears to want Justin Skule to win, having given him first- and second-team reps at tackle during offseason workouts.
However, one might look at the two drafted rookies, Spencer Burford and Nick Zakelj, as direct threats to Skule, Jaylon Moore and Colton McKivitz, the three returning veterans who aren’t exactly close to being locked on the roster.
Undrafted rookie Dohnovan West is interesting to watch, as he should have been a drafted player and could theoretically challenge players like Jake Brendel and Keaton Sutherland, who are in line to start at center in the wake of Pro Bowler Alex Mack’s offseason retirement.
Kyle Shanahan typically likes veterans in this spot, though, meaning West is probably a safer bet for a developmental role instead.
49ers training camp bubble watch: Tight end
Lock: George Kittle
Strong bubble: Ross Dwelley, Tyler Kroft, Charlie Woerner
Weak bubble: Tanner Hudson, Jordan Matthews
Long shot: Troy Fumagalli
As far as the 49ers are concerned at tight end, there’s All-Pro George Kittle and then everyone else.
Kittle is expected to revert back into being one of the NFL’s best all-around weapons this season, yet the Niners don’t exactly have a clear-cut No. 2 option to support him despite years of trying to find one.
In theory, this job likely goes to the player who admirably did so back in 2020 when Kittle missed eight games, Ross Dwelley, yet a notable lack in production in both field time and targets suggests Dwelley could hit 2022 as a bit of an afterthought.
If San Francisco elects to keep four tight ends on its 53-man roster, though, Dwelley and run-blocking tight end Charlie Woerner should have little problem hanging around. And it’s possible the 49ers are hoping veteran tight end Tyler Kroft, who had 404 yards and seven touchdowns back in 2017, emerges as that complementary threat.
Kroft carries only $25,000 in guaranteed money, though, so he’s by no means a sure thing to make the regular-season roster, especially if a fringe tight end like Tanner Hudson or even Jordan Matthews, whom the 49ers also seem to inexplicably love, impresses more during training camp.
49ers training camp bubble watch: Wide receiver
Lock: Brandon Aiyuk, Danny Gray*, Jauan Jennings, Ray-Ray McCloud, Deebo Samuel
Strong bubble: Malik Turner
Weak bubble: KeeSean Johnson, Marcus Johnson
Long shot: Austin Mack, Taysir Mack*, Tay Martin*
Kyle Shanahan arguably has the most complete wide receiver corps since taking over the Niners’ head-coaching job in 2017, highlighted by the 2022 NFL Draft addition of the speedy Danny Gray.
Gray’s 4.33 40-yard time is the perfect element to open up things more for returnees like Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, both of whom will still command the bulk of targets from quarterback Trey Lance, while big-slot receiver Jauan Jennings hopes to pick up where he left off last season as a go-to target on third downs.
However, Gray was limited during mandatory minicamp with a groin injury, which gave way to one of the Niners’ other free-agent pickups, return specialist Ray-Ray McCloud, getting a lot of work in with the offense.
McCloud might actually be San Francisco’s prime deep threat to start the year as Gray acclimates, which rounds out four of a possible five spots on the 53-man roster at this position.
Of the remaining names, Malik Turner seemed to be the player separating the most out of the pack, so it’s likely his spot to lose, and his abilities on special teams will also go a long way towards not relinquishing a regular-season designation.
49ers training camp bubble watch: Running back
Lock: Tyrion Davis-Price*, Kyle Juszczyk, Elijah Mitchell
Strong bubble: Trey Sermon, Jeff Wilson Jr.
Weak bubble: JaMycal Hasty, Jordan Mason*
Long shot: Josh Hokit
Second-year pro Elijah Mitchell might again get the lion’s share of carries for the 49ers offense this season in light of his impressive 963-yard campaign a year ago.
However, Mitchell’s brief injury history and the fact Kyle Shanahan often likes to feature more of a bruiser at the position early in games help explain why the Niners used a third-round draft pick on former LSU tailback Tyrion Davis-Price.
The rookie could actually be San Francisco’s starter early in games, using his 6-foot-1 frame to test opposing defenses early before Shanahan gives way to Mitchell.
In theory, this likely points to a reduced role for fellow 2021 rookie, Trey Sermon, whose 167 rush yards last year were notably disappointing after the 49ers also used a Round 3 pick on him.
It might be premature for the Niners to wholly give up on Sermon after just one season, but he can’t be viewed as a total lock either. If anything, he probably caps out as an RB3 on the depth chart even if he improves over his frustrating 2021 campaign.
Especially if undrafted rookie Jordan Mason winds up turning heads during training camp.
San Francisco has the best fullback in the NFL, Kyle Juszczyk, so he’s not going anywhere.
49ers training camp bubble watch: Quarterback
Lock: Trey Lance, Nate Sudfeld
Strong bubble: None
Weak bubble: Jimmy Garoppolo, Brock Purdy*
Long shot: None
Alright, the question every 49ers fan is wondering: Will quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo be on the team’s 53-man roster come Week 1?
Garoppolo has started throwing again in the wake of offseason shoulder surgery, but the latest and greatest only reinforces what we’ve known all offseason: The Niners have been looking to trade him, and Garoppolo’s camp even received permission to seek out a transaction somewhere.
By trading Garoppolo, San Francisco could clear up to $25.5 million in cap space, which is money needed to offer up lucrative extensions for players like Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa, and such a move would fully cement Trey Lance as the team’s starter for the long run.
Sure, there is a scenario where the 49ers keep Jimmy G as an expensive backup, yet that would invite the same circus that circulated around the two quarterbacks for all of last season.
No, not ideal.
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Meanwhile, down towards the bottom of the depth chart, it’ll be interesting to see whether or not Nate Sudfeld can hold off the final pick from the 2022 NFL Draft, Brock Purdy, for the rights to back up Lance this season.
Sudfeld’s one-year contract is worth a fully guaranteed $2 million, so he’ll be on the roster regardless.
Purdy, meanwhile, doesn’t exactly strike a lot of confidence as someone who’d be worth using a roster spot on this season.
Training camp kicks off with on-field practices beginning on Wednesday, July 27.