5 key stats where 49ers offense dramatically improves in 2022

49ers stat improvement No. 3: Third-down conversions

Hand-in-hand with Trey Lance both having a stronger arm and being more athletic, as well as factoring in Tyrion Davis-Price and a would-be improvement in short-yardage situations, one might expect San Francisco to showcase some serious improvement overall on third downs, too.

In reality, the 49ers weren’t wholly awful on third downs last year, finishing with a successful first-down conversion percentage of 40.09, which ranked 14th in the league.

But, for a Kyle Shanahan-led offense boasting elite playmaking weapons like Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle while being supported by plenty of B-list contributors, one would figure that number should be notably higher.

Getting into more favorable third-down situations will be the result of successes on first and second downs, of course, so it’s important to note last year’s Niners averaged a solid 4.6 yards rushing on first downs but a sizable 9.4 yards per pass attempt on the same down.

Considering what we know about Lance and his ability to target more areas of the field, one might expect San Francisco’s offense to take a leap in first-down passing, and this 2009 explanation from NFL.com might help the novice understand why this is important:

"I love the expression, “You’ve gotta win on third down.” Of course, you have to win on third down, but your chances of converting on third down have a lot more to do with what happens on first down. Through the first two weeks of the season teams have averaged 26 first-down plays, 20 second-down plays and 13 third-down plays a game. The best plan isn’t to win on third down, but rather try to avoid third downs — and that really means winning on first down."

The 49ers will win on third downs this year because they’ll be better on first and second downs.