The 49ers surprised many when they selected LSU running back Tyrion Davis-Price in Round 3 of the 2022 NFL Draft, but he might end up being a gem.
There’s a trend of many an NFL fan and pundit when it comes to surprising picks in the NFL Draft.
If it’s initially looked at as bad or shocking, that’s usually the kneejerk reaction. After a while, though, most of us talk ourselves into accepting the pick. And then we end up loving it until things actually turn out bad.
At the risk of doing this very thing with the San Francisco 49ers’ rather shocking third-round selection of former LSU running back Tyrion Davis-Price, whom we tabbed as the worst pick they made in the 2022 draft, let’s try flipping the narrative and explore why it’s actually a good move from the Niners’ vantage point.
| Rushing | Receiving | Scrimmage | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | School | Conf | Class | Pos | G | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Plays | Yds | Avg | TD |
| *2019 | LSU | SEC | FR | RB | 14 | 64 | 295 | 4.6 | 6 | 10 | 74 | 7.4 | 0 | 74 | 369 | 5.0 | 6 |
| 2020 | LSU | SEC | SO | RB | 9 | 104 | 446 | 4.3 | 3 | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 | 112 | 493 | 4.4 | 3 |
| *2021 | LSU | SEC | JR | RB | 12 | 211 | 1003 | 4.8 | 6 | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 | 221 | 1067 | 4.8 | 6 |
| Career | LSU | 379 | 1744 | 4.6 | 15 | 28 | 185 | 6.6 | 0 | 407 | 1929 | 4.7 | 15 |
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference
Generated 6/13/2022.
Sure, San Francisco already used a third-round pick on running back Trey Sermon a year ago, yet Sermon didn’t exactly break out in year one, amassing just 167 yards. But the production from fellow 2021 rookie Elijah Mitchell, who rushed for 963 yards in 11 games, made this selection feel a bit redundant.
That said, there’s an avenue where Davis-Price winds up getting the bulk of starts right away.
More on that later, but let’s explore why the 93rd overall pick from the 2022 NFL Draft makes sense for the 49ers and why he might end up being more important than many expect.
Why Tyrion Davis-Price thrives with 49ers his rookie year
Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense is still a run-first system despite transitioning over to second-year quarterback Trey Lance.
That means players like Trey Sermon, Elijah Mitchell and Tyrion Davis-Price will get their touches, especially with the Niners looking to avoid using All-Pro wide receiver Deebo Samuel as a rushing option too frequently.
And there’s one play in particular that put Davis-Price on San Francisco’s watch list, as broken down by The Athletic’s Matt Barrows (h/t Kyle Madson of Niners Wire):
"The 49ers saw that zip on film, particularly during LSU’s game against Alabama on Nov. 6. On the 63rd play, Davis-Price broke across the line of scrimmage and within 15 yards hit his highest speed of the season, which according to the 49ers, was among the top five speeds of any of the runners in the draft. The burst caught their attention. “A lot of times, guys reach higher speeds because they have the opportunity,” assistant general manager Adam Peters said. “They maybe aren’t as fast as other guys, but because they have the opportunity to run 60 yards in a straight line they reach a high speed. (Davis-Price) reaching his top speed in a short amount of space is more impressive.”"
Outside of trying to placate Samuel, who is reportedly frustrated with his role as a “wide back,” there’s another reason why Davis-Price actually makes a lot of sense for Shanahan’s offense.
ESPN’s Nick Wagoner broke this down:
"To wit: The 49ers ranked 29th in the league in third-down run conversion percentage, gaining a first down on just 42.4% of their rushing attempts on third down. On handoffs to running backs, their conversion rate of 42.1% was last in the NFL on fourth or third-and-3 or fewer. They averaged 2.3 yards per carry on third-and-2 or fewer yards, which ranked 26th in the NFL. In 2021, Davis-Price had 36 carries for 153 yards and two touchdowns on third or fourth down. From that, he went for 111 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries when the Tigers faced third or fourth down with 3 or fewer yards to go."
Short-yardage situations were problematic for Shanahan and Co. a year ago, and the thinking here is Davis-Price will help in this regard.
And judging by the physicality element needed in these situations, one might argue the 6-foot-1, 232-pound tailback might be a bruising-type rusher who actually starts games, too.
Still, analysts were bearish on the selection anyway, and we have to explore why.
Why Tyrion Davis-Price flops with 49ers
Going back and looking at Tyrion Davis-Price’s collegiate tenure, he didn’t exactly do much beyond his 2021 season. While looking at stats alone rarely tells the whole story, it’s not like we’re describing a bell-cow tailback who is all but guaranteed to make an immediate impact.
Let’s start off with the notion Kyle Shanahan only employs a zone-style blocking system for his offense. Like most head coaches, Shanahan has evolved his scheme a lot since 2017, and there are plenty of power and man-gap plays that have become the norm over the last couple of years.
Davis-Price is more of a power back, but that might limit him solely to those kinds of plays.
Case in point, the rookie’s NFL.com draft profile notes how the former LSU standout “needs better patience to allow smoke to clear up front” and has a “below-average feel for blocking scheme and run lane.”
The indecisiveness described here is precisely one of the reasons why Trey Sermon fell out of favor so early in 2021, and it wasn’t hard to see this play out on film. It’s also one of the reasons why Elijah Mitchell emerged as the go-to option for much of the season.
Perhaps Davis-Price winds up following a similar trajectory, and the 49ers’ 2022 running back room is simply too crowded to afford him the chance to make up the difference in a short amount of time.
If he does, though, what should fans expect out of Davis-Price this season?
Tyrion Davis-Price’s role, impact with 49ers in 2022
Remember that part from earlier where we suggested Tyrion Davis-Price might actually emerge as the Niners’ starting running back right away?
Don’t be fooled by this. We’re not saying Davis-Price somehow emerges as San Francisco’s leading rusher. There’s a key difference here.
In 2019, Kyle Shanahan used a tandem of veteran running backs, Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert. And while fans may recall how Mostert was easily the 49ers’ best weapon on the ground, Shanahan would frequently start Coleman on game day, letting him test out and wear down opposing defenses before inserting Mostert as “the closer” and someone who could rip off the big play.
Elijah Mitchell, despite setting a franchise record for a rookie player with those 963 rush yards, still missed six games with injuries, and he might not be poised for a full-time workload. And if the Niners don’t trust Trey Sermon and won’t field reserve tailbacks like Jeff Wilson Jr. and JaMycal Hasty in a featured role, suddenly Davis-Price emerges as the next-best option.
Read More: 49ers fans shouldn’t be too upset with Tyrion Davis-Price draft pick
He might be in that category anyway, winding up being the starting running back early in games before giving way to Mitchell at or around halftime.
It’s something Shanahan has done before and is likely to do again.
If that’s the case, one might look at Davis-Price to net around 400 yards rushing his rookie year with a relatively low yards-per-carry average. But, despite it being a thankless job, it might be inherently important to what San Francisco is trying to do overall.