49ers roster: Jimmy Garoppolo and his uncertain future

In the process of being replaced by his current employer, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo faces a lot of unknowns heading into the 2022 season.

Niner Noise has reached the point in our annual player-by-player look of the San Francisco 49ers’ 90-man offseason roster where we hit a pretty well-known figure, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

As per usual with these pieces, we break down why the player will improve, regress and what roster chances and/or impact he’ll have over the course of the upcoming season.

In Jimmy G’s case, things are a lot more complex.

We know the storyline well by now. The Niners drafted his heir apparent at No. 3 overall back in 2021, quarterback Trey Lance, who sat behind Garoppolo in the latter’s “swan song” year with San Francisco, which tried trading him during the offseason but couldn’t for a variety of reasons, the biggest of which was likely his offseason shoulder surgery stemming from an injury suffered in the playoffs.

And, so, Garoppolo remains stuck. For now.

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Generated 6/7/2022.

Now 30 years old and widely viewed as a middle-of-the-road quarterback with an injury history, what lies ahead for Garoppolo is uncertain. The 49ers have already stated they aren’t going to simply give him away for nothing, but retaining the quarterback for his scheduled $27 million salary-cap hit for 2022 isn’t feasible either.

And ideally, the Niners would prefer to avoid the same quarterback controversy they had for the bulk of 2021, too.

So, instead of following our usual trend of evaluating why Garoppolo improves, regresses and what his expected role will be for the upcoming season, let’s break down why he stays on the roster, why he doesn’t and the likeliest of outcomes for him in 2022.

Why 49ers elect to keep Jimmy Garoppolo in 2022

Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t physically partake in organized team activities, and the Niners also excused him from mandatory minicamp, meaning Trey Lance is getting all the first-team reps during offseason practices so far.

That’s important, as Lance will be developing that needed chemistry with his starters between now and when Garoppolo is scheduled to start throwing again, training camp.

It doesn’t seem like a plausible solution, but San Francisco has reportedly worked out the scenario where it keeps Jimmy G on the roster in 2022 but assumes Lance will be QB1 for the entire year.

The only way this works is for the 49ers to not find a trade partner between now and Week 1 and to engineer some sort of re-negotiated contract, one where the Niners ask him to take a significant pay cut but still provide him with the $1.4 million guaranteed he’s scheduled to earn anyway.

A sort-of “accept this deal or we cut you” kind of move.

Now, Garoppolo might not want to accept this. However, he might be in a situation where taking a backup role in 2022 could mean bigger and better things when the quarterbacking landscape looks awfully different a little less than a year from now.

More on that in a moment, but following this route would have merit for San Francisco. For starters, the 49ers would have a starting-caliber option in case Lance flames out or suffers an injury, thereby keeping a playoff window open, and it might also safeguard against Lance succumbing to the notable lack of experience many a pundit has already pointed out.

The Niners surely wouldn’t re-sign Garoppolo in 2023, and he’d likely sign a free-agent deal elsewhere that would net them a compensatory NFL Draft pick the following year, perhaps a selection higher than what San Francisco could have gained via trade.

Is that likely, though?

Why 49ers ultimately cut bait with Jimmy Garoppolo in 2022

It’s in the 49ers’ best interest to have Jimmy Garoppolo healthy again, and they’re likely banking on at least one of the other 31 projected starting quarterbacks either flaming out between now and Week 1 or suffering some sort of injury.

Remember, back in 2016, the Philadelphia Eagles traded their own lame-duck quarterback, Sam Bradford, to the Minnesota Vikings for a first-round pick after the Vikings lost quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a serious knee injury during offseason workouts.

Nothing like that is guaranteed to happen, though, and time is running out for the Niners to make a decision.

A trade or a cut would free up more than $25 million in cap space, which is money San Francisco will desperately need to assist with lucrative extensions for top players like wide receiver Deebo Samuel and EDGE Nick Bosa, even if there’s projected room underneath what’s expected to be a massive cap increase in 2023. Carryover matters, and the 49ers will want to generate some of that now.

And while the Niners could feasibly engineer a good deal of cap space by asking Jimmy G to take a pay cut while keeping him on the roster, that still wouldn’t solve an inevitable headache of keeping both him and Trey Lance at the same time.

No, San Francisco likely doesn’t want to do that again. Garoppolo might not want to go through that situation either.

So, what would Jimmy G ideally like to do, and where might he go in 2022 and beyond?

Possible outcomes for Jimmy Garoppolo in 2022

Jimmy Garoppolo has to play a role in the decision process, whatever that might be.

To his credit, he’s handled this awkward situation about as well as anyone could have asked, not creating a distraction for the front office or the roster and openly expressing his support for Trey Lance even though the latter is poised to take his job.

Both Jimmy G and the 49ers would prefer to find an amicable situation for both, but that might not be possible.

What is?

Jimmy Garoppolo gets traded

Few teams could actively seek quarterback upgrades. Maybe the Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans or Seattle Seahawks, but the Niners aren’t going trade Garoppolo within the NFC West, so that crosses off the Hawks.

Houston seems poised to try things out with second-year pro Davis Mills, and reports suggest the Panthers have no interest in Garoppolo right now either despite their own quarterbacking shortcomings.

However, the key words in that last statement are “right now,” and the landscape could easily change between now and the regular season.

49ers release Jimmy Garoppolo outright

It’s possible either Garoppolo or San Francisco reach the end of the line, the quarterback simply asking for an outright release so he can latch on somewhere else where he can have the opportunity to start.

Or at least sign a new contract with more guaranteed and/or for a longer term than the one year remaining on his current deal.

Read More: 4 teams that could employ Jimmy Garoppolo in 2022

The 49ers, looking to clear up cap space and free up the logjam under center, could easily oblige even if it means they get nothing in return.

Jimmy Garoppolo accepts his role as a backup

It might not be ideal, and it might not even take place with the Niners. But Garoppolo might have to accept the fact the rest of the league has settled on starting quarterbacks already, essentially pushing his time to start again back a year. Maybe two.

This isn’t without precedent.

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Former Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky had to accept a backup role with the Buffalo Bills in 2021 before landing a free-agent starter’s deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers this offseason, while former Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota had to perform QB2 duties with the Las Vegas Raiders before being signed by the Atlanta Falcons this offseason to be their starter, too.

Maybe that’s a course Garoppolo will have to accept.

Either way, there’s more than enough uncertainty facing the veteran quarterback in the upcoming weeks and months, and it’s still nearly impossible to truly gauge what will happen, given all the yet-to-be-determined X-factors that haven’t played out.