The 49ers don’t want to trade Deebo Samuel despite his contract frustrations. But what if another team made an offer the Niners couldn’t refuse?
Queue up your favorite quote from The Godfather.
Let’s set the record straight. The San Francisco 49ers don’t want to trade All-Pro wide receiver Deebo Samuel even though both parties appear to be at an impasse regarding discussions about what would be a lucrative contract extension.
But they would listen to offers. Perhaps even consider them. Going back to one of the greatest movies of all time, let’s also toss in a quote from NBC Sports Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco:
"There has been no indication the 49ers are openly shopping Samuel in a trade. But coach Kyle Shanahan said it himself a year ago: Nobody on the team is off-limits for trade discussions. He and [John] Lynch would consider any legitimate offer."
The Niners aren’t actively shopping Samuel. Not yet at least, and they may not anytime soon. However, what would the case be if another team simply makes Lynch and Shanahan “an offer he can’t refuse?”
Let’s create a normal-person scenario.
A stranger (or a friend… doesn’t’ matter here) approaches you and asks to buy your car.
“It’s not for sale,” you reply. But then the stranger offers you $200,000 for it right there. Unless your car is actually worth that much, you’d certainly consider it, right?
That’s the situation San Francisco finds itself in right now with Samuel, at least the part about seeing if any other team would be willing to make such an offer.
So, to continue the speculation, let’s dive into three can’t-refuse offers the 49ers would have to get to trade Samuel.
No. 3 offer 49ers can’t refuse for Deebo Samuel: Atlanta Falcons
Outside of tight end Kyle Pitts, the Atlanta Falcons have awfully few pass-catching weapons that’d be inspiring. And in the wake of trading quarterback Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts earlier this offseason, they’re undergoing what’ll be a notable rebuild for at least the next few years.
Atlanta is absorbing a hefty chunk of Ryan’s 2022 cap hit, yes. But according to Over the Cap, the Falcons will have over $96 million in space in 2023, more than enough to offer the kind of money Deebo Samuel wants.
The Falcons utilized a Samuel-like player in wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson last year, so the scheme fit isn’t exactly foreign. And with the NFC South likely to be in flux within the next two years, once Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady retires, the division would essentially be wide open by 2023, too.
By sending off its top pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, No. 8 overall, Atlanta will miss out on a developmental quarterback like Liberty’s Malik Willis, who’d be poised to develop behind the veteran, Marcus Mariota, otherwise. Yet with the 2023 draft expected to be much better and deeper with quarterbacks, the Falcons can afford to wait.
Although the Niners would likely ask for a second first-round pick in return. And with Atlanta poised to be not very good this season, that 2023 first-rounder should be relatively high.
Tack on a Round 3 pick swap in 2022, and San Francisco has a very strong offer at hand.
No. 2 offer 49ers can’t refuse for Deebo Samuel: Los Angeles Chargers
In case you hadn’t noticed, there’s a bit of an arms race going on within the AFC West this offseason. While the Kansas City Chiefs are still arguably at the top of the division, thanks largely to quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the remaining AFC West teams all scrambled to stockpile weaponry left and right.
The Denver Broncos adding quarterback Russell Wilson, the Las Vegas Raiders grabbing wide receiver Davante Adams and the Los Angeles Chargers luring in defenders like J.C. Jackson and Khalil Mack, too.
The Bolts are arguably the No. 2 team behind KC right now, and they can afford to be aggressive while quarterback Justin Herbert plays on his cheapish rookie contract. However, Over the Cap has Los Angeles at only $8.6 million under the cap in 2023, meaning it’ll have a tough time re-signing star safety Derwin James when his current deal expires after this season.
Including James in a would-be deal for Deebo Samuel could be attractive to the 49ers. Sure, James has had issues staying on the field, appearing in only five games in 2019 and missing 2020 entirely. But he’s electrifying when present, and the Niners do have a need at strong safety with Jaquiski Tartt no longer on the roster.
The Chargers would have to figure out how to work a would-be Samuel extension into the fray, but they nevertheless have to be competitive now amid the division.
James, the No. 17 overall pick in the 2022 draft, a 2023 second-round pick plus San Francisco getting a one-year advance on a fifth-round selection could be enough to move Samuel.
No. 1 offer 49ers can’t refuse for Deebo Samuel: New York Jets
Fewer moving parts here. But that wouldn’t matter, as the 49ers would be getting a top-five pick in the 2022 NFL Draft for Deebo Samuel.
The New York Jets were reportedly finalists for now-Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill, only to be beat out by Miami in that blockbuster move with the Chiefs. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Gang Green would have sent out two Round 2 picks and a third-round selection for Hill and pick No. 103 overall:
Here is the trade the Chiefs and Jets had in place for Tyreek Hill:
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 23, 2022
🏈Chiefs would have gotten picks No. 35, 38 and 69
🏈Jets would have gotten Hill and No. 103.
This shows us something, though. The Jets know they have to be aggressive at luring in talent, perhaps overbidding to land someone for head coach Robert Saleh’s squad with the understanding second-year quarterback Zach Wilson needs all the help he can get to avoid going bust.
And they tried already. Hard.
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The No. 4 overall pick would be tough to part ways with, yes. And the 49ers’ asking price probably wouldn’t stop there either, mandating a third-round selection in exchange, too, even though top-five picks command so much more value than any of the Round 1 ones we’ve discussed thus far.
Should it happen, however, Samuel would reunite with his former pass-game coordinator, now-Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur.
Heck, maybe the Niners turn that pick into a sizable trade-down package to accrue even more, making a would-be Samuel trade even more lucrative.