The 49ers roster seems to be in pretty good shape heading into the 2022 NFL Draft, but let’s take a look at the locks and who is on the bubble.
The doldrums of the NFL offseason are few and far between, but with the oncoming storm of the 2022 NFL Draft on the horizon, things are relatively quiet for the San Francisco 49ers and the rest of the league.
Free agency is, for the most part, finished. Although there may still be players who will find new homes in the coming weeks. And, of course, there’s the ongoing Jimmy Garoppolo question, with it looking more and more like the quarterback will be a Niners player at least through the bulk of the summer.
The major focus for the next few weeks will be on how San Francisco will use the draft to fill out holes in the roster, a group that will rise to 90 strong before too long, and then shrinks down to 53 before the start of the regular season.
Given the shape of the current 49ers roster, it makes sense to take a look at the team and attempt to break it into two very distinct groups: the locks and the bubble. To some extent, the Niners front office is likely engaging in a similar exercise to try to ascertain where the holes in the roster might be and how they can fill them using the team’s nine draft picks in April.
Certainly, a lot could change over the course of the next month, but based on how the roster is stacked up as of this moment, here are the players who are locks and the players on the bubble to make the 53-man roster heading into the 2022 regular season.
49ers’ Offense: Locks
QB Trey Lance
QB Nate Sudfeld
RB Elijah Mitchell
RB Trey Sermon
RB Jeff Wilson, Jr
FB Kyle Juszczyk
WR Deebo Samuel
WR Brandon Aiyuk
WR Jauan Jennings
WR Ray-Ray McCloud
TE George Kittle
TE Charlie Woerner
LT Trent Williams
OG Aaron Banks
C Alex Mack
RT Mike McGlinchey
OT Jaylon Moore
OL Daniel Brunskill
Total: 18
There aren’t a lot of obvious holes for San Francisco’s offense in terms of starting roles, with quarterback Trey Lance relatively entrenched as the starter (even if head coach Kyle Shanahan won’t say that exactly) and Nate Sudfeld coming back on a decent contract (complete with guaranteed money) to be his backup.
Outside of the sport’s most important position, running back Elijah Mitchell, wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, fullback Kyle Juszcykz, and tight end George Kittle fill out the starters at the skill positions.
Meanwhile, third-year wideout Jauan Jennings earned the right to come into 2022 as the No. 3 option at receiver with newly signed return specialist Ray-Ray McCloud coming in as a fourth option. The team could certainly look to supplement this unit in the draft, especially with a more-traditional slot receiver.
The running back room outside of Mitchell is solid, but an argument could be made that Trey Sermon slots in here mostly on the strength of his having been a third-round draft pick just last season and that he’ll need to do more to prove he’s a player who can be counted on as Mitchell’s direct backup.
Hence the inclusion of Jeff Wilson here, a player the team clearly likes and who also has value as a special teamer if he gets supplanted by Sermon.
The tight end group outside of Kittle is shaky, in spite of the return of Ross Dwelley (notably missing here) on a one-year deal. Charlie Woerner stays because of his value as a blocker, but this is a unit that could use an upgrade next to its All-Pro caliber starter.
Then there’s the offensive line, which may be in better shape than most would expect but still has a lot of question marks. Trent Williams and Alex Mack will start, although the 49ers will hopefully look to draft a long-term replacement for the veteran center this year. Beyond that, it feels like the team made the Aaron Banks selection in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft expecting now-New York Jets guard Laken Tomlinson to leave in free agency this offseason, but Niners’ fans will question whether Banks is ready.
The Mike McGlinchey conundrum is also a real one, as the 49ers have already picked up his fifth-year option, meaning they’re on the hook for the tackle’s $10.8 million salary for 2022 no matter what. His torn quadricep was surgically repaired, so the hope is that he can be ready to go for the start of the season. This might allow San Francisco to sign him to an extension to lower his cap hit for 2022, but that will depend heavily on how he responds to the surgery.
If McGlinchey can’t go, expect Jaylon Moore to be an option to fill the right tackle position. But he’s here as a lock because the former Western Michigan Bronco could also be in contention at right guard, provided McGlinchey is good to go.
Moore will battle with Daniel Brunskill, who has proved to be of great use to the 49ers over the last few seasons, playing all across the offensive line and was the starter at right guard throughout 2021. His versatility lands him on this side of the bubble, but this also seems like a place the team could upgrade in the draft.
Still, depending on how the rest of the line shakes out, having a guy like Brunskill on the team, even as the swing-everything player, would be valuable.
49ers’ Offense: Bubble
RB JaMycal Hasty
FB Josh Hokit
WR Travis Benjamin
TE Ross Dwelley
OL Jake Brendel
OL Colton McKivitz
OL Justin Skule
Not a particularly long list, but these players are here because they are either positions where keeping multiple players is unlikely (fullback) or the slots are more likely to be filled by incoming rookies.
That is especially the case when it comes to wide receiver Travis Benjamin, who seems to have been replaced by Ray-Ray McCloud as the teams’ primary return man and hasn’t offered anything as a pass-catcher for the team during his tenure to not be pushed out by a rookie. Kyle Shanahan’s offense doesn’t make much use of multi-receiver sets beyond three, so a player like Benjamin is expendable if the draft yields a new receiver.
It may feel unfair to put JaMycal Hasty here given how much the running back has featured during his time in San Francisco and the fact that he often played over rookie Trey Sermon last year, but Hasty might be a casualty of numbers in 2022. If Sermon proves himself worthy of being the No. 2 back, the former Baylor Bear will find himself in a fight with whomever the 49ers bring in via the draft or as an undrafted free agent.
Cruel, too, on Ross Dwelley, whom the Niners just brought back as a free agent, but he hasn’t shown himself to be much more than a replacement-level player.
If the Niners find a more dynamic option in the draft, Dwelley will be the first man out.
As for the trio of offensive lineman, that too will come down to how many the team opts to keep and how often it dips into that well on draft weekend. If, for instance, San Francisco drafts a new center, then Jake Brendel would probably lose his spot. And if another guard comes in, the numbers might not work out for Colton McKivitz.
This draft will tell us a lot about what the 49ers think of their depth, especially along the offensive line.
49ers’ Defense: Locks
EDGE Nick Bosa
DL Arik Armstead
EDGE Samson Ebukam
DL Kerry Hyder
DL Maurice Hurst
DT Javon Kinlaw
DT Hassan Ridgeway
EDGE Charles Omenihu
LB Fred Warner
LB Azeez Al-Shaair
LB Dre Greenlaw
LB Oren Burks
CB Emmanuel Moseley
CB Charvarius Ward
CB Ambry Thomas
CB Deommodore Lenoir
FS Jimmie Ward
SS Talanoa Hufanga
S George Odum
S Tarvarius Moore
Total: 20
The word “lock” might be a little strong in some of these cases, notably players like safety Tarvariuis Moore, who is coming off a major injury that caused him to miss all of the 2021 season, and even someone like EDGE Charles Omenihu, who is a good rotation pass-rusher but not a world-beater by any stretch of the imagination.
That said, while the Niners do have nine draft picks, they can’t count on all nine of those guys (provided they actually select nine new players) to contribute right away, so veteran depth and rotational guys will be key to building this roster.
There are, however, a sizable chunk of these players who are no doubt roster locks: EDGE Nick Bosa, who stands to see a massive payday coming his way soon, defensive tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw, linebackers Fred Warner and Azeez Al-Shaair, cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley, Ambry Thomas, Deommodore Lenior, and newly signed Charvarius Ward, and safeties Jimmie Ward, Talanoa Hufanga, and free-agent addition and special teams All-Pro George Odum are pretty well locked into the 53-man roster.
Other defensive linemen, like Samson Ebukam, Kerry Hyder, Hassan Ridgeway, and Maurice Hurst could be replaced, but the likelier outcome is that the 49ers opt to add depth in the draft rather than simply replacing these players (more on this in a moment).
The defensive unit with the most question marks around it in terms of who makes the team is linebacker. Beyond Warner, there is an interesting narrative surrounding Al-Shaair and Dre Greenlaw, who had an injury-plagued 2021 season. Both in line for potential long-term extensions, but keeping both at high cap numbers makes no sense given how little time NFL teams use three linebackers these days.
The pair is costing the Niners just a hair over $6.5 million in 2022, so it’s possible they keep both for this season, barring someone coming in and trading for one or the other, and look to extend one beyond this year.
The last name here is free-agent signing Oren Burks, who is a 49er mostly on the strength of his special teams play, an area the team clearly saw as a weakness in 2021. Burks should make a few other players from the last few seasons expendable but won’t be counted on as a defensive player.
49ers’ Defense: Bubble
DL Kevin Givens
DL Jordan Willis
LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
CB Darqueze Dennard
CB Dontae Johnson
S Jarrod Wilson
Again, not a particularly long list, but a group of players who may have already been replaced via free agency or are likely to see that happen during the draft.
This is true mostly in the defensive backfield, where veterans like Darqueze Dennard and the ever-present Dontae Johnson (who was actually a key player in San Francisco’s playoff run in 2021) could see themselves on the outside looking in. The same could be said for safety Jarrod Wilson, even though the strong safety role next to Jimmie Ward is currently wide open.
It mostly comes down to a youth movement that is clearly happening in that section of the field for the 49ers. Outside of Ward, the rest of the starters and key depth guys are all aged 25 or under, and if they add another young player in the draft, then some of these veterans are going to get the ax.
One thing is true: Never count out Johnson being part of San Francisco’s season in one way or another, but as of now, he’s firmly on the bubble.
Linebacker Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles has done well for himself as a special teamer the last few seasons, but the signing of Oren Burks tells you the 49ers brass felt it needed to upgrade there, meaning DFF’s days as a 49er are probably past him.
As for the defensive line options here, it may come down to a numbers game similar to the offensive line. Jordan Willis was the hero in the Niners’ recent playoff win over the Green Bay Packers, but if he gets beat out by Ebukam, Omenihu, or even a rookie selected in the early rounds of the draft, then the team improving for 2022 is what matters.
The same could be said for Kevin Givens, who has played well in spot duty but isn’t irreplaceable, especially if Arik Armstead continues to be a force on the inside and if Javon Kinlaw returns and makes an impact as the primary nose tackle.
This projection puts the 49ers roster at 41 players, including kicker Robbie Gould, punter Mitch Wishnowsky, and long-snapper Taybor Pepper, who are more than likely all returning. This leaves them 12 roster spots to fill, assuming all these locks make the team.
There’s a lot that could happen between now and when final roster cuts are due, which won’t be until after the preseason. But based on early returns, the Niners roster appears to be in pretty good shape heading into the 2022 NFL Draft and training camp.