The 49ers rapidly watched the market for Jimmy Garoppolo dry up, and here are four critical reasons why teams aren’t trading for him right now.
The NFL quarterbacking dominos are starting to fall rapidly a full week after the league new year and the paralleling start of free agency began.
But one of the missed dominos that failed to fall was still-San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Niners were easily in a great position to trade him this offseason. He was coming off his second NFC Championship appearance in three years amid a market not good for quarterback-needy teams, either via free agency or the NFL Draft.
Pro Bowlers like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson were expected to be the first dominos to fall, Rodgers staying with the Green Bay Packers, while Wilson was off to join the Denver Broncos.
Yet Garoppolo wasn’t immediately moved thereafter, suggesting one of the reasons why San Francisco is now having trouble moving its quarterback to pave the way for the 2021 rookie No. 3 overall draft pick, Trey Lance, to fully start in 2022. Instead, the Washington Commanders plucked Carson Wentz from the Indianapolis Colts, who eventually traded for Matt Ryan from the Atlanta Falcons, who then grabbed free-agent quarterback Marcus Mariota.
The Cleveland Browns aggressively traded for former Houston Texans signal-caller Deshaun Watson, then put their prior starting quarterback, Baker Mayfield, on the trade block.
The New Orleans Saints, who were in the market for Watson along with Atlanta, elected to re-sign Jameis Winston.
What went wrong?
Niner Noise explores those reasons why the Garoppolo trade market turned south despite there being high hopes for the 49ers getting a substantial return package for him earlier this offseason.
Reason No. 4: Deshaun Watson helped derail Jimmy Garoppolo trade market
Had the Niners acted more swiftly (more on that later) and offered to trade Jimmy Garoppolo before a grand jury elected not to pursue a criminal case with Deshaun Watson for off-field sexual misconduct, things may have been vastly different.
The Watson trade speculation and activity threw a massive wrench into San Francisco’s plans no matter what, though, and it’s not hard to understand why teams would much rather prefer Watson over Garoppolo, at least in terms of on-field abilities.
Cleveland, which ultimately won the bid, soured its relationship with Baker Mayfield, thereby putting another big name into the pool of quarterbacks who could be available. While nowhere near as dramatic, in terms of physically announcing the discontent like Mayfield did, the Falcons doing the same attempt certainly make Matt Ryan expendable.
Other teams, meanwhile, made their contingency plans in case they didn’t land Watson.
If Houston had retained Watson, for whatever the reasons and/or just delayed trade talks, the trickle-down effect of the Browns, Falcons, Saints and Carolina Panthers would have been vastly different.
And Garoppolo’s market would have been much, much better.
Reason No. 3: 49ers balked at trading Jimmy Garoppolo when they had the chance
There have been multiple reports from the offseason saying the 49ers received offers from other teams willing to trade for Jimmy Garoppolo.
One report from John Middlekauff earlier in March (h/t 49ers Webzone) said the Niners had already been offered a second-round NFL Draft pick, while Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio reported on Monday that they had received an offer for two second-round picks.
Given where we’re at right now, it’s pretty clear San Francisco didn’t jump at either one of those two offers.
What happened instead was a long string of quarterback-needy teams engineering alternative plans:
- Commanders trading for Carson Wentz
- Browns trading for Deshaun Watson
- Colts trading for Matt Ryan
- Falcons signing Marcus Mariota
- Saints re-signing Jameis Winston
That’ll effectively leave the Panthers and Seattle Seahawks as the only realistic teams in need of a quarterback, and Baker Mayfield being on the trade block means it’ll be an awfully thin market for Jimmy G once Mayfield’s situation is settled.
In short, the 49ers waited too long. And probably because of the next reason.
Reason No. 2: 49ers vastly overvalued Jimmy Garoppolo
As soon as the Niners aggressively traded up for Trey Lance last year, teams knew fully well Jimmy Garoppolo was a lame duck. One who’d cost an additional $25.5 million and draft assets if those teams wanted to trade for him in 2022.
The same reasons why San Francisco wants to move on are the same as why quarterback-needy teams would be leery about trading for Garoppolo.
For starters, Garoppolo is a 30-year-old signal-caller with average abilities, limited by a relatively weak arm and a knack for late-game collapses in the playoffs, last season’s NFC Championship loss to the Los Angeles Rams being the most recent example.
On top of that, Garoppolo is injury-prone, too, having suffered shoulder injuries during his time with the New England Patriots, a torn ACL in 2018, ankle injuries in 2020 and then both a thumb and shoulder sprain late in 2021.
Read More: How 49ers botched dwindling trade market for Jimmy Garoppolo
The combined setbacks all served to drive Garoppolo’s market southward.
Yet the 49ers, for whatever the reasons, failed to understand the offers out there weren’t meeting what they hoped to get for Garoppolo via trade. They hoped they could play the market. But when that market began to dry up, a merely so-so asset wasn’t something for which another team would be willing to shell out significant compensation.
The Saints re-signing Jameis Winston and the Falcons inking Marcus Mariota cost precisely zero in draft assets.
Putting it bluntly, the Niners needed to read the market better. Particularly in light of the main reason, listed next.
Reason No. 1: Jimmy Garoppolo shoulder surgery devastated 49ers trade chances
Jimmy Garoppolo underwent offseason surgery to repair damage to his injured shoulder.
A full month after San Francisco was eliminated from the postseason.
Whether or not this was intended by Jimmy G’s camp to “stick it” to the 49ers in an effort to derail his trade value, subsequently forcing a release where he could sign with anybody on a new longer-term deal, is anyone’s guess.
But to think that surgery had no impact whatsoever on other teams’ interests is ludicrous.
So why didn't the Colts go after Jimmy G?
— Dianna Russini 🏈 (@diannaESPN) March 21, 2022
Form what I was told, there were concerns over the shoulder injury. Not so much the medical side of it but the idea of missing time in the offseason with a new team. This was a red flag.
Garoppolo, expected to fully recover from the surgery, nevertheless isn’t expected back until the start of training camp. It would be one thing if Garoppolo was staying put with the Niners. But missing out on offseason workouts, such as minicamps and OTAs, with a new team while recovering is a dramatic setback.
One that possibly could have been avoided if Garoppolo had opted for the surgery shortly after San Francisco was eliminated.
He didn’t, though. And that played a massive role in wrecking the 49ers’ chances of trading him for anything substantial.
Instead, if at all, it’ll be nothing substantial.