49ers Trade Scenario No. 1
Writer’s Note: In this trade, the 49ers have traded Jimmy Garoppolo to the New Orleans for Pick No. 49 in a hypothetical trade.
Why it works
If we refer to the trade chart here, which gives a rough approximation of the value of every pick in the draft, we can have an idea of what a trade will look like for any given pick.
It’s not an exact science, especially where a player being traded is concerned, but we’ll break it down.
Per the chart, the three picks the 49ers possess in this scenario (Nos. 49, 93 and 102) are worth 410, 128 and 92 points, respectively, for a total of 630 points. The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, have No. 32 which is worth 590 points.
The key to this is the quarterback market. Aaron Rodgers has recommitted to the Green Bay Packers and Russell Wilson has been dealt from the Seattle Seahawks to the Denver Broncos with the Seahawks reportedly looking at a big trade to lure Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans.
Right there, that’s the three biggest quarterbacks this offseason accounted for, so the market is extremely dry. Washington is openly in the market for a veteran quarterback, and Jimmy Garoppolo may be one of the best names left.
Looking at past years, we’ve seen above-average quarterbacks dealt for a second-round pick, and the Carson Wentz deal last year ended up being a first-round pick from the Indianapolis Colts to the Philadelphia Eagles when certain parameters were met.
Wentz has set the quarterback market moving once again, with his subsequent trade to the Washington Commanders netting a swap of second-round selections and two third-round picks despite not impressing with the Colts.
So we know the market is there. A second-round selection should be exactly what the 49ers net for Garoppolo.
Detroit are once again rebuilding and need multiple picks to build their roster. They should be looking to move this pick on for multiple picks on Day 2.
Potential targets for 49ers
Who do the 49ers really fancy that they simply can’t wait on? Christian Watson has made a lot of noise after his Combine performance and the North Dakota State receiver would be an interesting foil to his old college quarterback in Trey Lance.
Bolstering the interior offensive line wouldn’t be a sexy pick but it would be a prudent one. Boston College guard Zion Johnson may have played himself out of reach here but Kenyon Green from Texas A&M.
A big EDGE class could push someone down as well. The 49ers might be happy with the rotational guys they have already (especially if they can keep Arden Key on the team), but they could find someone too good to refuse as well in keeping with their philosophy of a stout front four.