Speculation and rumor suggest Tom Brady might be interested in joining the 49ers, coming out of retirement to do so. But here’s why it won’t happen.
Not even two weeks into the offseason, and the rumor mill is starting to fly with some pretty notable storylines.
There’s a big question mark whether or not Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will retire, especially after a fairly cryptic Instagram post but then refuted (somewhat) on Rodgers’ weekly appearance on the Pat McAfee Show.
Is Rodgers trying to force his way to a team like the San Francisco 49ers? Possibly, but even that prospective blockbuster move would be tough to engineer.
If not Rodgers, though, how about now-retired quarterback Tom Brady?
Unlike Rodgers, Brady has retired after his two-year stint with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which produced a Super Bowl championship and another deep playoff run. Like Rodgers, however, the thought of Brady somehow uniting with his boyhood team, the Niners, has already turned into a hot topic so early this offseason.
Those rumors probably aren’t going to go away anytime soon either, especially when they’re fueled by even more speculation by media outlets like Pro Football Talk.
It might make sense for Brady to want to come home and play for San Francisco. The 49ers are poised to win now even if they trade Brady’s former backup with the New England Patriots, Jimmy Garoppolo, and it might be a perfect end-of-career capstone for the 44-year-old Brady to reach for an eighth Super Bowl win with the team he grew up loving.
Would the Niners actually pull the trigger on this, though?
Let’s explore three reasons why it won’t happen.
No. 3: Tom Brady doesn’t want to ‘un-retire’ and join 49ers
There’s a pretty big X-factor at play here when combing through all the speculative analysis on why Tom Brady would want to join San Francisco.
Does he even want to come out of retirement?
Of course, Brady’s announcement and subsequent explanation left room for him to return to the NFL for one more season, and his comments on the Let’s Go Podcast (h/t ESPN) only served to reinforce the rumor mill:
"I’m just going to take things as they come. I think that’s the best way to put it, and I don’t think anything, you know, you never say never. At the same time, I know that … I feel very good about my decision. I don’t know how I’ll feel six months from now."
“Never say never.” Thank you, Tom.
Brady also cited his family as a primary reason why he wants to step away from the NFL for good. Perhaps he gets itchy for a return, which is always plausible. Yet the pull from his family to stay away from the league, including the 49ers, would ultimately be the deciding line between the rumors potentially coming true or being little more than the kind of speculation that dominates most offseasons anyway.
There’s one person who can officially pull the plug on these rumors continuing, and that person is Brady. If he doesn’t want to un-retire, he won’t.
Even if he does, though, it’s not as automatic as Brady simply signing with the Niners.
No. 2: 49ers don’t want to pay Buccaneers’ asking price for Tom Brady
There’s another big wrinkle at play if Tom Brady wants to come out of retirement and play for San Francisco.
The Buccaneers still own his rights, and Brady remains technically under contract through 2022 anyway. As things stand now, should Brady want to un-retire, he wouldn’t be free to simply sign with the 49ers as if he were a free agent.
This is where things get a bit more challenging, though, and it’s something PFT’s Mike Florio pointed out when he speculated Brady wanting to engineer a deal to join the Niners this offseason. In theory, Brady could approach the Bucs and ask them to trade his rights to San Francisco, and whatever gained in return would be something Tampa Bay wouldn’t have had in the first place, since Brady isn’t going to play for the Buccaneers again.
But what would that asking price be?
The 49ers don’t have a first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, thanks to last year’s trade-up for another player involved in this whole storyline, quarterback Trey Lance. And while the Bucs may end up settling for a mid-round pick instead, it’s just as possible the Niners say “no” to dishing out that kind of return for Brady, too.
San Francisco might be hesitant to offer up anything but a late-round draft pick for Brady’s rights. Even then, there’s one final reason why general manager John Lynch and Co. could turn down any would-be trade offer.
No. 1: 49ers feel comfortable rolling with Trey Lance in 2022
Even if Tom Brady wants to join the 49ers, do the Niners actually want him? Remember, San Francisco had a shot to sign Brady in NFL free agency entering 2020 but elected to stick with Jimmy Garoppolo instead, leading to Brady joining Tampa Bay.
This time around, it’s Trey Lance who might be an obstacle in the way of a would-be trade for Brady’s rights.
Lance sat behind Garoppolo for all but two starts last season, flashing both reasons to be excited and concerns about his overall rawness coming out of North Dakota State. A full year immersed in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense, however, bodes well to Lance being ready enough to take on full-time starting duties in 2022.
So, that prompts the question: Do the 49ers feel as if now is the time to fully deploy Lance, or would Brady be a bona fide better option even if it means relegating Lance to the No. 2 spot on the depth chart for another year?
Maybe. Maybe not. There have been as many reports from insiders, both locally and nationally, suggesting Lance is ready to start now.
At the same time, Brady is Brady, and the chance for Lance to be mentored by the greatest quarterback of all time has its merits, too.
Only if the Niners are interested in making that happen, though, and it’s perfectly logical to assume they’re not.