With the 49ers poised to trade Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, Niner Noise looks at earlier QB trades to further determine what the compensation might be.
Easily the biggest news for the San Francisco 49ers this offseason will be how they navigate the impending trade that’ll send veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo somewhere else in 2022.
While by no means the sole reason the Niners made it all the way to the NFC Championship game last season, Garoppolo nevertheless played a vital role in ensuring head coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad made it deep in the playoffs in two of the last three seasons. And despite all of Garoppolo’s shortcomings and limitations, he still finished the regular season with respectable numbers, completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 3,810 yards with 20 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, all for a passer rating of 98.7.
As San Francisco makes the transition to 2021 rookie quarterback Trey Lance this year, it’ll also look to recoup some of the massive capital used to acquire Lance at No. 3 overall in last year’s NFL Draft.
Garoppolo, easily one of the league’s 20 best quarterbacks going right now, will have a market.
The only question is how much.
There’s no shortage of speculation surrounding what a Garoppolo trade would command for a quarterback-needy team, especially in light of relatively few quality options in free agency or the 2022 draft. Some pundits have suggested a second-round pick seems the most likely, while others cite the thin options available as a reason why the 49ers could create a bidding war, perhaps even netting a Round 1 selection in return.
However, using history as a guide, let’s look at four examples of Garoppolo-caliber quarterback trades that might help influence the market for him if they don’t necessarily set it.
Jimmy Garoppolo Market, Trade No. 4: Jets trade Sam Darnold to Panthers
The biggest high-caliber quarterback trade from last offseason was the Detroit Lions shipping off quarterback Matthew Stafford to the team that beat the Niners in the NFC Championship game, the Los Angeles Rams.
Jimmy Garoppolo is nowhere near Stafford’s level, so the multitude of first-round picks, a third-rounder and Rams quarterback Jared Goff won’t equate.
However, another move that was notable was the New York Jets moving a former first-round quarterback gone bust, Sam Darnold, to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for Carolina’s second-, fourth- and a 2021 sixth-round picks.
New York easily realized Darnold was never going to work out with the Jets, especially amid the regime change with former San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh at the helm and the No. 2 overall pick in last year’s draft (used to select BYU quarterback Zach Wilson), and there’s also no doubting the fact Garoppolo is vastly superior than Darnold, too, both in terms of the latter’s efforts with New York and the one year in Carolina.
The 2021 quarterbacking market was much more favorable to QB-needy teams, too, so one has to figure a would-be Garoppolo trade would command much more than just a second-round pick alone based on this deal for Darnold.
Jimmy Garoppolo Market, Trade No. 3: Eagles trade Carson Wentz to Colts
If there’s one advantage Jimmy Garoppolo has entering this offseason, he didn’t necessarily “flame out” like Sam Darnold did with the Jets or now-Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz did with his previous team, the Philadelphia Eagles.
Wentz, another one of those notable offseason quarterback moves, led the NFL in interceptions in Philly his last season there, 2020, which certainly didn’t up his value on the market. Neither did speculative reports about him clashing with coaches and being a toxic member within the Eagles locker room.
Nevertheless, Indy convinced itself to reunite Wentz with his former quarterbacks coach in Philly, now-Colts head coach Frank Reich, by sending off a conditional second-round draft pick in 2022 and a third-round pick to Philadelphia in exchange for Wentz.
That conditional pick would turn into a first-round selection if Wentz appeared for at least 75 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps in 2021.
Wentz hit that mark and then some, reaching 98 percent of offensive snaps last season.
Garoppolo tossed more interceptions than Wentz (seven) this season, but the former was far more effective in accuracy and total yards overall.
It might be tough convincing a team to go with the conditional route, but it has to be in play.
Jimmy Garoppolo Market, Trade No. 2: Eagles trade Sam Bradford to Vikings
The market dictates a lot any offseason, and even the market itself can shift and sway between the final whistle of the Super Bowl to the opening snap of Week 1.
Case in point, the Minnesota Vikings were desperate to find a starting-caliber option in September of 2016 after losing their starter, Teddy Bridgewater, to a serious knee injury that jeopardized his career.
With so few options remaining at that point, the Vikings dished out a 2017 first- and a 2018 fourth-round pick to the Eagles for quarterback Sam Bradford, who had effectively lost his starting job in the wake of Philadelphia drafting Carson Wentz earlier that year.
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For an Eagles team that had essentially made Bradford expendable, getting a first-round pick in exchange was an absolute steal.
Minnesota, meanwhile, had to act out of desperation, as it was poised to be a playoff-contending team that year but ultimately went 7-8 with Bradford at the helm.
While unlikely the 2022 offseason quarterback market will generate that kind of desperation, the 49ers might be inclined to see if they can convince a team to act as aggressively to bring over Jimmy Garoppolo in a similar manner.
Jimmy Garoppolo Market, Trade No. 1: 49ers trade Alex Smith to Chiefs
In some ways, arguably, the Niners are trying to replicate what the Kansas City Chiefs did in 2017 and the immediate offseason thereafter when they had veteran quarterback Alex Smith but elected to use a first-round draft pick on Patrick Mahomes to replace him.
The Chiefs let Mahomes marinate behind Smith his rookie season, eventually moving the latter to the Washington Football Team for a third-round draft pick and cornerback Kendall Fuller.
That might help set a Jimmy Garoppolo market this offseason: a day-two pick and a starting-caliber player in return. But it’s San Francisco’s own trade of Smith that should call some focus here, too, the March 2013 deal that sent him packing to Kansas City in the first place after the 49ers deployed quarterback Colin Kaepernick en route to a Super Bowl appearance the previous season.
The Niners traded Smith for two second-round picks, which might be a somewhat accurate representation of what Jimmy Garoppolo could command.
Smith was much more protective with the ball than Garoppolo, though, yet Kaepernick had already revealed his upside to the football world — an element Trey Lance has yet to fully display.
As such, Smith was more expendable to San Francisco than Garoppolo right now.
Whether or not that has any bearing on Jimmy G’s trade value is still anyone’s guess.