Kyle Shanahan officially has a fourth-quarter playoff problem

For the second time in three years, Kyle Shanahan watched his 49ers cough up a 10-point lead in the NFL playoffs, suggesting there’s a real problem.

Let’s get this out of the way: San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is a good one, and anyone who thinks otherwise should reflect back on the most recent low point of the franchise under one-and-done head coaches, Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly, when considering a reference point.

Or, just look around the league at teams consistently going through coaching tumult.

Shanahan was as big a reason as any why the Niners overcame a 3-5 record earlier during the regular season yet managed to get into the NFL playoffs, ultimately coming up short in the 2022 NFC Championship game in the 20-17 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

That loss, however, pointed out one of Shanahan’s glaring weaknesses, though: He struggles to execute offensive prowess late in playoff games.

Shanahan deserves a lot of praise for how he navigated his team’s earlier struggles. Yet he’s not immune to the criticisms either. While there were plenty of reasons behind San Francisco’s defeat at the hands of LA, the fact the 49ers led 17-7 in the fourth quarter and ultimately lost isn’t exactly a glowing endorsement of Shanahan’s handling of fourth-quarter situations. Particularly those in the postseason

And, sadly, it’s a trend we’ve seen before.

For reference, the Niners weren’t particularly good, offensively, during the regular season either, averaging 6.0 points in the final frame, which ranked 21st in the league.

But let’s focus on the NFL playoffs only and see why Shanahan’s struggles here in the NFC Championship game weren’t anything new.

Kyle Shanahan struggled in fourth quarter of 2 Super Bowls

Not to rehash some bad memories, but the 2022 NFC Championship game wasn’t the only time Kyle Shanahan was shut out in the fourth quarter during a high-profile playoff bout.

Remember Super Bowl LI when Shanahan was at the helm of the Atlanta Falcons offense against the New England Patriots? Yes, fans will recall and perhaps blame then-Falcons head coach Dan Quinn’s defense for coughing up a 28-3 lead held in the third quarter. But there’s still lingering blame on Shanahan for not chewing up the clock as well as he could have during that game.

OK, that was the Falcons going up against quarterback Tom Brady and a Pats dynasty. What about San Francisco’s own recent Super Bowl loss, Super Bowl LIV against quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, when the 49ers held a more-precarious but still-formidable 20-10 lead entering the fourth quarter?

Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, then a rookie but a player nevertheless impressing, somehow found himself removed from the game plan, and Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu later thanked Shanahan for getting away from the Niners’ run game that was torching KC to so much effect earlier in the game.

San Francisco squandered away that 10-point lead, too.

Let’s take a look at Shanahan’s fourth-quarter scoring from these games, including Sunday’s NFC Championship loss, in contrast to what the 49ers’ opponents did in the same quarter:

• Super Bowl LI: Falcons 0, Patriots 19
• Super Bowl LIV: 49ers 0, Chiefs 21
• 2022 NFC Championship: 49ers 0, Rams 13

That’s a deficit of minus-53. Not a good look for Shanahan in the playoffs.

Reasons why Kyle Shanahan has gone cold in fourth quarter of NFL playoffs

Perhaps Kyle Shanahan isn’t the best expert at clock management. Maybe he doesn’t get quite as aggressive as he should in certain key situations, the “schwerpunkt” of games that could potentially prove to be turning points.

There’s an even better case example from the NFC Championship in the fourth quarter at a moment when the Niners could have effectively iced the game over Los Angeles.

San Francisco gained 9 yards on a 1st-and-10 play with 12:02 left in the fourth quarter. The Rams had inexplicably burned all three of their second-half timeouts and wouldn’t be able to stop the clock, not a good situation to be in when they were trailing 17-14.

Two gut runs, the first by running back Elijah Mitchell and the second with fullback Kyle Juszczyk, failed to generate the first down. And despite being on LA’s 45-yard line, in one of those midfield situations, Shanahan elected to punt instead of being aggressive.

All three of those plays failed to involve the 49ers’ top offensive weapon, Deebo Samuel, which is exceptionally questionable in itself.

Granted, Shanahan certainly recognized and later admitted there were no second thoughts about punting in that situation. Perhaps he felt confident in his defense getting a key stop, which it arguably did the subsequent drive by only allowing a field goal to tie things up at 17 apiece.

Still, the inability to seize the game at that crucial moment was a key reason why the Niners ultimately lost the game.

So, is there hope?

Kyle Shanahan can still turn around fourth-quarter woes

Just because a head coach has a tendency of botching things in the fourth quarter of playoff games doesn’t mean those trends have to stay that way.

Kyle Shanahan has now been on the wrong side of three crushing postseason losses in which his teams have had a fourth-quarter lead of at least 10 points, all of those netting zero points scored in the fourth quarter in response.

If there’s a notable takeaway, though, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid long had an association with fourth-quarter meltdowns, and one could make the argument it took the presence of Patrick Mahomes to turn things around, although Kansas City’s fourth-quarter collapse to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship game over the weekend isn’t necessarily a good look either.

Still, having an elite-level quarterback capable of making those deciding-point plays when the game is on the line might be just as vital as any head coach’s play-calling abilities.

San Francisco’s current starting quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, was incapable of doing just that during Super Bowl LIV and in the NFC Championship game. In both games, he shrunk when the 49ers needed him to be at his best.

Perhaps that’s a big reason why the Niners invested so heavily in 2021 rookie quarterback Trey Lance, essentially meaning Garoppolo will be jettisoned during the offseason.

Whether or not Lance will cover up Shanahan’s fourth-quarter woes, or hopefully wind up aiding Shanahan’s improvement in this regard, is anyone’s guess.

For now, though, Shanahan will have to wear that stain of fourth-quarter collapses despite all the other positive influences he’s brought to San Francisco.