The 49ers will face a number of NFL free agency questions this offseason, and veteran running back Raheem Mostert is among those who could leave.
Veteran running back Raheem Mostert is one of 24 unrestricted free agents the San Francisco 49ers have entering 2022.
On paper, it doesn’t seem to make much sense to re-sign Mostert. At least not after he suffered a season-ending knee injury way back in Week 1, opening up the door for rookie runner Elijah Mitchell to take over as the Niners’ primary tailback and with great success.
Additionally, head coach Kyle Shanahan and running backs coach Bobby Turner have a history of identifying and deploying less-known tailbacks and turning them into relative household names, Mostert even being one of those during his storybook 2019 campaign that helped propel San Francisco to a Super Bowl appearance, one in which he had 952 all-purpose yards and 10 total touchdowns.
At the same time, though, there actually may be some reasons why retaining Mostert would have some merit.
According to Over the Cap, the 49ers have a projected $10.7 million in available cap space next season, a number that should jump up considerably if they move on from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo during the offseason, freeing up over $25 million extra the Niners could spend on either the open market or retaining key contributors.
Would Mostert fall into that category?
Considering how run-heavy Shanahan’s offense is, there is actually some concrete evidence as to why retaining Mostert might be a smart move for San Francisco in the immediate future.
Let’s explore both sides of the argument.
Why 49ers should re-sign Raheem Mostert
Again, it’s easier to describe the many reasons why the 49ers shouldn’t retain Mostert, who’ll likely be seeking the final significant payout of his NFL career during the offseason.
But there might actually be some value in re-signing him in NFL free agency anyway.
Sure, Mostert has an injury history. Yet the same can unfortunately be said of Elijah Mitchell, who already missed six regular-season games with various injury setbacks his rookie season, and it’s fair to wonder whether or not Mitchell will be another one of those injury-prone runners who aren’t always available to Kyle Shanahan and Co.
Second-year running back JaMycal Hasty, scantly used on offense and usually a reserve return specialist, is an exclusive-rights free agent, so he’ll be back but can’t be pegged as a reliable depth option. Fellow running back Jeff Wilson Jr. is a restricted free agent, and it’s unclear if the Niners want to dish out a tender on him anyway.
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And with 2021 rookie runner Trey Sermon cast to the back end of the depth chart, the 2022 running back room looks notably thin for San Francisco behind Mitchell.
While the 49ers may entertain using yet another late-round NFL Draft pick this year on a running back, other pressing needs elsewhere on the roster suggest that’d be a luxury type of pick.
Mostert, despite being up there in age, still has elusive speed and a full understanding of Shanahan’s offense. In tandem with Mitchell, the Niners would have a one-two punch, and Mostert’s presence could potentially mean less of a dependence on wide receiver Deebo Samuel to be a massive contributor on the ground, lessening the exposure and risk of injury to one of San Francisco’s most important players.
Why 49ers shouldn’t re-sign Raheem Mostert
There’s a bit of a misconception Kyle Shanahan won’t spend top dollar on running backs. That’s not true. The 49ers dished out hefty contracts in NFL free agency to former tailbacks like Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman before.
It doesn’t mean that’s the right approach, though.
Turning 30 years old before the start of the 2022 regular season, Mostert will likely be receiving his final significant contract, and him being on the wrong side of 30 years old doesn’t exactly make for a good free-agent target. At least not from the Niners’ vantage point.
There’s also the injury history, too, marked most recently by missing eight games with various setbacks in 2020 before that knee injury suffered at the very beginning of the 2021 campaign.
San Francisco’s ground game got by just fine enough without Mostert being a key factor last season, as the team finished with the league’s seventh-most rush yards during the regular season (2,166) and averaged a respectable-if-not-overly impressive 4.3 yards per carry (16th). It would be one thing if the 49ers’ rushing attack wholly underwhelmed over the course of 2021, but that wasn’t the case.
Even if the Niners part ways with Jimmy Garoppolo and free up significant cap space, that money would be best served to go elsewhere, likely in an effort to extend other key players like Deebo Samuel or to shore up other areas of need on the roster, such as cornerback or the interior of the offensive line.
Sure, re-signing Mostert would have some merit, but it’s hard to see that outweighing the reality of it being a smarter move to let him walk once free agency begins this spring.