The 49ers are highly likely to move Jimmy Garoppolo in 2022, and he’s only one of a number of quarterbacks who could be playing elsewhere next season.
There was always a dull chorus of San Francisco 49ers fans who thought it possible their team would retain veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo beyond 2021 even after the Niners aggressively traded up in the NFL Draft to land their perceived signal-caller of the future, Trey Lance.
Yet those theories and calls have grown quieter, especially as Lance has started to reveal the signs of being a top-quality quarterback for head coach Kyle Shanahan and Co.
Clearing Garoppolo’s 2022 salary cap hit, either by way of a trade or outright release, has to be one of the primary objectives for San Francisco this offseason. And while Garoppolo has his own limitations, both in terms of his on-field play and injury liability, the 2022 quarterbacking market should give him and the 49ers a good amount of value.
Plainly stated, the offseason market isn’t a good one.
There aren’t too many likable options in free agency, and the NFL Draft isn’t exactly featuring a lot of eye-opening options either. So, for those quarterback-needy teams out there, players like Garoppolo are going to be attractive options.
Let’s take a look at predicting where Garoppolo and these five other quarterbacks wind up playing in 2022.
No. 6: Jimmy Garoppolo is traded to Broncos
After finishing dead last in the AFC West two years in a row and not having a winning season since 2016, changes are likely afoot for the Denver Broncos, which likely includes parting ways with head coach Vic Fangio.
Those changes should also involve moving on from quarterbacks Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock, too, and Denver hasn’t had any kind of solidarity under center since the days of Hall of Famer Peyton Manning over the first half of the previous decade.
Yet the Broncos roster is stocked well enough on both sides of the ball, particularly with a young offensive line and playmaking receivers like Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.
All that’s been needed for a while now is a good quarterback.
Unfortunately, Denver doesn’t have multiple first-round picks in this year’s NFL Draft to make an aggressive trade offer for a Pro Bowl signal-caller like the Seattle Seahawks’ Russell Wilson or the Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers, but the Broncos do have four picks on day two of the draft, the additional two picked up from the Los Angeles Rams via the trade for EDGE Von Miller.
One of those should be enough to acquire Garoppolo, as Niners general manager John Lynch’s well-established relationship with Denver works itself out well for both parties this offseason.
No. 5: Aaron Rodgers sticks with the Packers
For the overwhelming majority of the 2021 calendar year, the thinking was Aaron Rodgers would be suiting up for his final season at Lambeau Field, the result of his clashes with the Packers front office and general manager Brian Gutekunst, perhaps a lot of it in the wake of Green Bay’s first-round NFL Draft selection of quarterback Jordan Love in 2020.
Heck, things even reached a point where San Francisco was thought to be a preferred landing spot for Rodgers, even after the 49ers were honing in on Trey Lance as a potential replacement for Jimmy Garoppolo.
Yet that once-soured relationship between Rodgers and the Packers seems to have softened a lot in recent weeks, although Green Bay boasting a 13-3 record with one week left in the regular season has to have helped.
And maybe the Packers haven’t quite seen what they want out of Love either. That’s another possibility.
At any rate, Rodgers is playing again like he’ll be a back-to-back league MVP, and it’s becoming tougher to envision the once-guaranteed scenario where Green Bay would move him in 2022 after his own version of The Last Dance was complete.
Look for Rodgers to stay put.
No. 4: Kirk Cousins is traded to the Steelers
The Minnesota Vikings are one of those teams that should probably consider blowing the whole thing up this offseason, including parting ways with head coach Mike Zimmer.
Minnesota has a few blue-chip pieces in place, namely wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Running back Dalvin Cook is under contract for the long term, too. However, after boasting an impressive roster yet failing to get into the postseason the last two years, a wholescale teardown aside from those two should be in the cards.
This would mean moving on from quarterback Kirk Cousins as well, which would be made more difficult knowing teams rarely enjoy taking on a signal-caller on the final year of a lucrative deal with no guarantee to return. Per Over the Cap, the Vikings would have to eat at least $10 million in guaranteed money anyway with the acquiring team picking up a remaining $35 million in 2022.
That’s a lot.
However, a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers might be an ideal destination for a player like Cousins. Soon to be in the wake of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement, head coach Mike Tomlin’s squads are perennially in the playoff hunt regardless of the roster situation, and there’s an excellent cast of offensive playmakers, too, particularly a similar run-first offense with running back Najee Harris poised to help someone like Cousins adjust.
This would also take advantage of a stacked Pittsburgh defensive front, not wasting those vital years from players like EDGE T.J. Watt.
No. 3: Deshaun Watson is traded to the Giants
One of the players who could have potentially replaced Jimmy Garoppolo heading into 2021 might have been Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, yet his off-field allegations of sexual misconduct put a close to those rumors, and it’s not lost how the 49ers made that aggressive trade-up to No. 3 overall in last year’s NFL Draft after the Watson news broke.
It’s almost a guarantee Watson will never play another down in Houston again after being relegated to a non-injury inactive list all season. And while there’s still a big legal mess to solve off the field, Watson’s player value should still be seen as pretty high.
Early on, the Miami Dolphins might have been viewed as suitors. But with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa playing well as of late, that might no longer be the plan here.
Related Story: Why Jimmy Garoppolo might prefer being cut, not traded
However, the New York Giants are one of those teams in an absolute mess despite last offseason’s valiant attempts to support their embattled quarterback, Daniel Jones, with an array of offensive talent like tight end Kyle Rudolph and wide receivers Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay.
Jones isn’t it, though, and it wouldn’t be shocking if the G-Men move on from him, head coach Joe Judge and general manager Dave Gettleman to get out from under what’s been a stretch of five consecutive seasons with no more than six wins.
True, the New York media might tear into Watson for the off-field stuff. But, if the three-time Pro Bowler plays well enough to revitalize the franchise, it’ll surely help ease any tensions there, regardless if that’s OK or not.
And with two first-round picks in the 2022 draft, New York has enough ammunition to make a deal work.
No. 2: Russell Wilson is traded to the Bears
Let’s get a little bold with our predictions here.
For starters, the Niners would love to see Russell Wilson moved outside the NFC West, and it wouldn’t be a surprise for Jimmy Garoppolo, wherever he lands, to be happy Wilson isn’t facing off against him twice a year either.
Like the Vikings, albeit under an entirely different context, the Seahawks are in line for a complete offseason overhaul after missing the playoffs for only the second time in Wilson’s career and finishing with a sub-.500 record for the first time during it. This could also spell the end of the head coach Pete Carroll era, too, along with general manager Brian Schneider.
Related Story: Predicting where Jimmy Garoppolo would like to be traded
Wilson, who reportedly listed a group of teams to which he’d entertain a trade last offseason, might be part of a complete-overhaul package.
Among those teams were the Giants and New Orleans Saints, along with the Chicago Bears. Yet the Giants may opt to go younger with a player like Deshaun Watson, while the Saints’ own salary cap restraints for 2022 (they’re projected at over $62 million in the red, per Over the Cap) could prevent absorbing Wilson’s sizable $38 million post-trade owed money over the next two years.
Instead, a revamped and reworked Seahawks approach here would be to move Wilson to another team in need of a complete makeover, the Bears, which prompts yet another interesting scenario.
Because quarterback Justin Fields is in Chicago, as of now.
No. 1: Justin Fields is traded to Seahawks
This would be the blockbuster.
Justin Fields was one of the rookie quarterbacks many thought San Francisco could grab at No. 3 to replace Jimmy Garoppolo. Alas, it turned out to be Trey Lance, so that idea went off the table quickly, and the Bears subsequently enacted their own trade-up to grab Fields a few picks later.
Chicago, however, is a team in desperate need of a brand-new identity moving forward, no longer claiming the defensive laurels of the 1985 Super Bowl squad and one which certainly shouldn’t include head coach Matt Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace.
Few quarterbacks in the league can carry a team regardless of the supporting cast, yet Russell Wilson is surely one of them, and he’d help usher in a completely new identity for the Bears anyway.
Yet the only way such a deal would work is if a player like Fields would be sent back in exchange.
Probable? No, but there’s an example of teams moving on from quarterbacks after just one year, most recently the Arizona Cardinals with Josh Rosen following 2018, subsequently followed by the 2019 drafting of quarterback Kyler Murray and Rosen’s trade to the Dolphins.
Fields is nowhere near as bad as Rosen was, and he’s potentially on pace to become a solid quarterback, provided the supporting context is good enough.
For the Seahawks, getting a package from Chicago for Wilson that includes Fields would net a promising young signal-caller on a rookie deal, freeing up plenty of cap space to build a quality roster together to make the next era of Seattle football an intriguing one.
Yet one San Francisco can hopefully dominate for a change, unlike what transpired against Wilson for a decade.