The 49ers may have been good enough to get to the playoffs with Jimmy Garoppolo, but their handling of him and Trey Lance has been a flawed process from the start.
The San Francisco 49ers know what they have in quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, and it unfortunately comes down to one word: average.
Fans can attest to this. So can head coach Kyle Shanahan. Garoppolo is a week-to-week challenge, and it’s not hard to find tweets about “good Jimmy” or “bad Jimmy” on any given Sunday. Particularly when he tossed two rather bone-headed interceptions during the Week 13 road loss to a vulnerable and disjointed Seattle Seahawks team.
There were other mistakes, too, a lot of them. Not all of them on Garoppolo either. But that’s where the “average” designation comes into play.
In short, Garoppolo can help the Niners win games when other factors are working well, such as the run game. When it’s not — and it wasn’t against Seattle, as San Francisco averaged 2.8 yards per carry — Garoppolo isn’t good enough to elevate the offense and, in part, the rest of the team.
Shanahan has known this for a while now. It’s the bigger, blunter reason why the 49ers aggressively traded up in last spring’s NFL Draft to grab Trey Lance, the rookie who hasn’t seen the field since his lone start of the year way back in Week 5.
As our good friend Jose Sanchez of Sports Illustrated pointed out, Lance was brought in to rectify Garoppolo’s shortcomings, ones which include being “an eight-year veteran, yet he is still making rookie mistakes.”
Like the ones against Seattle.
With the Niners on the cusp of a Wild Card berth, and Lance’s development halted by Shanahan sticking with Garoppolo, don’t expect anything to change now. At least not until San Francisco is fully eliminated, either in the postseason or just before it.
That said, the 49ers have completely botched the situation between Garoppolo and Lance, and it goes back far earlier than just Week 13.
Let’s explore how.
49ers botched Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance situation during the offseason
The whirlwind of speculation, controversy and question marks all throughout 2021 and into the regular season is a direct product of how the Niners approached their situation with Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance.
The initial plan made sense: draft Lance with the full intent of letting him develop behind Garoppolo, then try trading Garoppolo away in 2022 for a solid return while opening up the door for Lance to emerge as the starter.
San Francisco has stuck to that plan, likely understanding Lance’s inexperience at the collegiate level.
The problem, though, is it created a circus. A sizable one, and any in-season dialogue about the 49ers’ four-game losing streak, locker-room tension or whatever always came back to one thing: Garoppolo vs. Lance.
The Niners opened the door for this possibility, knowing fully well it would happen. And while winning tends to solve matters, such as its previous three-game win streak, San Francisco hasn’t moved at all away from that narrative.
Instead, the 49ers should have done the following:
- Sign a veteran quarterback to a cheap deal to act as a mentor
- Draft Lance at No. 3 overall
- Cut Garoppolo
True, trading Garoppolo this offseason might net a high draft pick in return, perhaps a Round 2 selection. But freeing up nearly $24 million owed to him in 2021 would have instead afforded the Niners to be more aggressive on the free-agent market, likely in 2022 when Lance would need additional help.
Proven players are better than unknown draft picks.
Yet there’s more to how San Francisco botched this whole situation, fully in-season decisions, too.
49ers made in-season botches with Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance
It’s understandable why Trey Lance looked so raw and shaky during his lone start of the year, Week 5 against the Arizona Cardinals. That’s what lack of reps with first-team units will do.
Yet Lance’s ability to create with his legs adds a new dimension Kyle Shanahan doesn’t and will never have with Jimmy Garoppolo.
But a would-be transition from the veteran to the rookie can’t center solely around legs or rushing prowess. It has to encompass all of Lance’s strengths, including his strong arm and understanding of a pro-style offense from North Dakota State.
Most importantly, reps.
The 49ers offense is limited with Garoppolo. And the Niners lack the overall team talent to overcome his regular interceptions, too, standing in contrast to the Super Bowl team of 2019.
Ideally, the Niners run the ball close to 40 times a game, and Garoppolo is asked to pass no more than 25 times. More runs equal fewer passes, and that’s typically defined San Francisco’s wins this year:
| Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week | Opp | Result | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Rate | Sk | |
| 1 | @ | DET | W 41-33 | 17 | 25 | 314 | 1 | 0 | 124.2 | 1 |
| 2 | @ | PHI | W 17-11 | 22 | 30 | 189 | 1 | 0 | 100.6 | 0 |
| 3 | GNB | L 28-30 | 25 | 40 | 257 | 2 | 1 | 87.2 | 4 | |
| 4 | SEA | L 21-28 | 14 | 23 | 165 | 1 | 1 | 79.1 | 1 | |
| 7 | IND | L 18-30 | 16 | 27 | 181 | 1 | 2 | 60.9 | 2 | |
| 8 | @ | CHI | W 33-22 | 17 | 28 | 322 | 0 | 0 | 100.6 | 0 |
| 9 | ARI | L 17-31 | 28 | 40 | 326 | 2 | 1 | 100.6 | 5 | |
| 10 | LAR | W 31-10 | 15 | 19 | 182 | 2 | 0 | 141.7 | 1 | |
| 11 | @ | JAX | W 30-10 | 16 | 22 | 176 | 2 | 0 | 126.3 | 2 |
| 12 | MIN | W 34-26 | 17 | 26 | 230 | 1 | 1 | 90.2 | 2 | |
| 13 | @ | SEA | L 23-30 | 20 | 30 | 299 | 2 | 2 | 93.6 | 1 |
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com
Generated 12/8/2021.
Stats don’t tell everything. But it’s noticeable that when Garoppolo has attempted 30-plus passes in a game this season, the 49ers are 1-3. And when he tosses an interception, they’re 1-5.
This puts increased pressure on the offense and defense to win in other ways. At times, such as that three-game win streak between Weeks 10 and 12, Garoppolo didn’t need to hit 30 passes because of the sheer rushing volume while cutting down on turnovers.
Related Story: Jimmy Garoppolo is consistent, and that’s both good and bad for 49ers
Now, does Lance immediately fix any of that? It’s unclear. But teams fielding rookie quarterbacks live with those early growing pains as part of the development process.
When Garoppolo is making those kinds of rookie-type mistakes, too, it’s little more than a botched effort.
What do 49ers do about Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance now?
So often during any season, and so frequently during a game, the final outcome is determined by decisions that happened long before. Case in point, the Niners failed to invest enough resources at cornerback over the last couple of years, and they’re paying the price now.
San Francisco could have embraced Trey Lance at the soonest possible moment by parting ways with Jimmy Garoppolo in the last offseason. In fairness to Jimmy G, he’s taken the circus that followed about as well as anyone could have, although his $26.4 million scheduled earnings for this year was as good a reason to want to hang around no matter what.
Kyle Shanahan dropped the idea of going back and forth between the two quarterbacks midseason, and Garoppolo has been the decided starter ever since Week 5.
That’s not going to change.
It’s come at the cost, though, of Lance’s development. To date, he remains the only first-round quarterback selected in 2021 not starting, and the only remaining hope is whatever on-field lack of experience he has in 2022 is made up for by whatever is happening behind closed doors.
Perhaps it is. That’s an unknown.
Garoppolo is going to remain the 49ers’ starter for the rest of 2021 unless they find themselves eliminated from playoff contention in, let’s say, Weeks 16 or 17. But that would be it.
Perhaps Shanahan’s long-term plans will pan out well enough, and this will be forgotten if Lance turns into a quality quarterback.
Only if, though.