Perhaps his recent quality play changed the narrative a bit, but Jimmy Garoppolo won’t be back as the 49ers quarterback in 2022, and here’s why.
When quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers were struggling earlier this season, it made a world of sense why the Niners would want to move on from him at the soonest practical moment, paving the way for rookie quarterback Trey Lance to take over under center.
And thereby setting the stage for the future.
But San Francisco is winning again, 3-1 over its last four games and right back into the playoff hunt with a 5-5 record entering a crucial Week 12 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. While Garoppolo hasn’t been the sole reason behind the recent hot streak, he has passed for six touchdowns against only one interception during that span, and he’s also rushed in another two scores, too.
He’s playing much better. It’s obvious.
Yet there’s a growing buzz the 49ers could somehow retain a lame-duck quarterback into 2022, notably during Fox’s broadcast during the Niners’ Week 11 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. And even head coach Kyle Shanahan, speaking to reporters on Wednesday (h/t 49ers Webzone), left the door cracked for a would-be Garoppolo return, if not fully open:
"I think there’s a chance for anything. But I think we’ve made it pretty clear that Trey’s our guy of the future, whenever that will happen. But it’s also nothing against Jimmy that we [drafted] him. We believe Trey will be our guy of the future, and like I said, I think it will be really hard, if Jimmy’s on it, for [Lance] to beat him out right away. So, it’s kind of going like that right now, and I’m not thinking much past that."
Don’t worry, coach. We’ll go ahead and think beyond it for you.
Garoppolo isn’t coming back in 2022. Plain and simple. And there’s more than enough evidence as to why this year will mark Jimmy G’s last in a San Francisco uniform.
Let’s take a look at three such reasons.
No. 3: Jimmy Garoppolo won’t be worth $27 million
It’s the proverbial elephant in the room: Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract, which will cost the 49ers up to $26.4 million this season and an additional $27 million in 2022, if he somehow winds up sticking around on the roster.
We’ve been over this before. But the Niners can save all but $1.4 million of that next year if he’s either released or traded, per Over the Cap, freeing up a massive amount of money to allocate to other needs while Trey Lance spends at least the following three-plus years on his affordable rookie deal.
Garoppolo would never get that kind of money on the open market. He knows this, and other teams know it, too. That’s why he didn’t demand a trade or an outright release when Lance was drafted.
On the near horizon, though, the Niners have to face some hard truths about their financial limitations. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, their No. 1 offensive weapon this year, is due for an extension that won’t be cheap next season. EDGE Nick Bosa could also receive an extension, too, possibly making him the highest-paid defender in the NFL. Left guard Laken Tomlinson, who has been playing lights-out football and is the model of consistency, is a high-profile pending free agent.
With a projected $12.5 million in available cap space in 2022, none of those would-be deals would be easy unless Garoppolo and his contract are out of the picture.
No. 2: 49ers know Jimmy Garoppolo is ‘good enough’ only
Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t a bad quarterback. Some may even argue he’s good. Definitely deserving to start in the NFL.
At 30 years old, however, the improvement argument won’t apply here. While it would be easy to dive into all the stats, both good and bad, Garoppolo simply is who he is: a decent starting option who can effectively manage an offense when there are quality weapons around him.
Even then, Garoppolo is still prone to making bone-headed mistakes, as his career 2.5 interception percentage has revealed. And while there will be those who argue San Francisco can’t win games without Garoppolo starting, which has proven to be true under Kyle Shanahan, there’s also another factor in the mix here.
Read More: 4 questions Jimmy Garoppolo must answer over rest of 2021
There should be two kinds of teams in the NFL: those who have elite-level quarterbacks and those who are looking for one.
Shanahan witnessed firsthand what having an elite-level quarterback can do, namely in the 49ers’ 2020 loss to quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, and even before during Super Bowl LIV when quarterback Patrick Mahomes turned things around in Niners-heartbreaking fashion in the fourth quarter.
Garoppolo doesn’t have that “it” factor, never has and likely never will. Shanahan realized that, hoping Trey Lance would wind up developing those X-factors towards being a superstar signal-caller.
No. 1: 49ers went all-in with Trey Lance, not Jimmy Garoppolo
Despite Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract and the reality he’s no more than a good-at-best quarterback, there’ll still be those who argue San Francisco will continue to commit to him in 2022, perhaps even beyond that.
If so, everyone in the organization responsible for making this year’s trade up to No. 3 overall in the NFL Draft to grab Trey Lance should never make any decisions for the team ever again.
It would have been one thing if the 49ers used their original pick, No. 12 overall, on a quarterback to replace Garoppolo at some point down the road. Even then, the proverbial “writing on the wall” would have been there for Jimmy G’s fate. Teams don’t use first-round picks on quarterbacks with full intentions of letting them sit for multiple years, unless they’re the Green Bay Packers with Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love, and look at the controversy that’s created.
But the point is emphasized even more in this situation.
The Niners not only used their own original first-round pick from 2021 to grab Lance, but they also packaged it with two future first-round selections, one in 2022 and another in 2023, plus a Round 3 selection next year to make the move.
That’s bold. Awfully bold. The kind of “let’s mortgage the future” kind of bold.
Lance would have to be disastrous to even warrant a return to Garoppolo in 2022, and even then, San Francisco would have to go down that path regardless because of its all-in investment.
So, no, Garoppolo won’t be back in 2022 no matter what others say.