Trey Lance must be 49ers starter for better or worse

It made sense why the 49ers didn’t want to rush Trey Lance right away. But a quarter of the way through 2021, Lance needs to be starting.

When the San Francisco 49ers‘ 2021 preseason came to a close, there was a pretty easy determination to make as far as who should be the team’s starting quarterback.

Jimmy Garoppolo.

For all the hype and hope the No. 3 overall pick from this year’s NFL Draft, Trey Lance, showed both during training camp and in the three-game exhibition period, Lance’s inexperience and rawness were also on full display.

It made sense for the Niners to roll with Jimmy G, too, even though head coach Kyle Shanahan spent all offseason looking for an upgrade, capped off by San Francisco’s aggressive trade-up to No. 3. Shanahan had endured three losing seasons out of four since taking over the 49ers’ head-coaching job in 2017, which put him in the precarious position of trying to win now while also opening up a new, longer Super Bowl window with Lance down the road.

Garoppolo was the safer option, the player with more experience and a better understanding of Shanahan’s offense. Lance, despite his immense raw talents, attempted just 318 passes in his entire collegiate career, which included only one full year as a starter.

Again, it made sense why Garoppolo won out. And it’s not hard to follow Shanahan’s thinking, especially if 2021 was going to be Jimmy G’s “swan song” for the franchise.

Except things have changed. Big time. Let’s dive into how.

Jimmy Garoppolo’s latest injury opens up a door for Trey Lance

A quarter of the way into 2021, the 49ers find themselves 2-2 and quickly losing a grip on command of the NFC West. They’re in last place, at least right now, and things could turn even further south in a hurry.

Headlining an otherwise offensively disjointed Week 4 loss to the Seattle Seahawks was Jimmy Garoppolo’s latest injury, a calf injury suffered on the Niners’ opening possession that eventually forced him out at halftime.

And Trey Lance in.

More on Lance’s performance in a second. But after the game, a noticeably distraught Garoppolo told reporters he was getting tired of having to deal with injuries on a regular basis:

"It sucked. I mean, just in between series, I could feel it tightening up in everything. Thought I could gut it out. I tried to for the first half, but it’s just tough, man. I don’t know. I’ve been in the situation too many times, and it’s getting real old. So, it’s just one of those things, but a part of the business, though."

“I’m hopeful it’ll just be a couple of weeks or something like that,” Garoppolo added.

Garoppolo’s presser could generate reaction pieces all over the place, too. On one hand, any extensive time away from being available opens up the door for Lance to take over the starting job and never look back, even if it means the rookie will take a lot of lumps for the rest of the season.

Should that be the case, though, it’s likely Garoppolo has played his final meaningful down in San Francisco.

Because, once Lance is even remotely close to being ready, Garoppolo won’t come back. Up until this point, Garoppolo’s experience and health were the only two things standing in the way of Lance starting.

If the health factor is gone, the door is wide open for Lance. Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers need to embrace it regardless of the outcome.

49ers did wrong by Trey Lance not embracing the ‘quarterback competition’

Kyle Shanahan knew he was toeing a thin line the moment the Niners’ trade to No. 3 overall went public. Jimmy Garoppolo wasn’t going to be happy, there were going to be ripple effects within the locker room and the slew of unknowns were going to play themselves out.

Still, Shanahan committed to Garoppolo starting right after training camp. And even in the wake of Garoppolo’s Week 4 injury, Shanahan continued to stress there wasn’t an actual competition between him and Trey Lance.

“Trey’s done a good job,” Shanahan told reporters. “I feel like he’s getting better each week, but that’s why he was the No. 2 quarterback going into that game.”

This is just the latest in a long line of comments dating back to the preseason, ones which highlighted there being no competition whatsoever and Garoppolo being “the guy.”

Comments are one thing, though. Preparation and development are different factors entirely.

In the same post-Week 4 press conference, Lance hinted that he wasn’t receiving anywhere close to the necessary number of first-team reps during weekly practices:

"I don’t have a number for you, honestly. But I stay ready mentally, physically, whether it’s walkthrough, practice, virtual reality, whatever it is. I try to do the most during the week to keep myself prepared."

Shanahan, too, said there were “packages in for him” with regards to Lance. Up to this point, though, Lance’s time on the field has been primarily with the scout team. Not with the starters.

This, perhaps, is where Shanahan has gaffed the most with regards to the process. He should have embraced the idea of a competition between Lance and Garoppolo, one that didn’t simply end during the preseason but rather one that’ll continue each and every week.

Now, with Garoppolo’s injury, it’s going to be highlighted even more.

49ers need to fully commit to Trey Lance

Early on, it made sense to bring Lance along slowly. But that argument was predicated on Jimmy Garoppolo staying fully healthy.

Now, the context has changed.

Trey Lance is the future. No doubting that. The Niners didn’t send off first-round draft picks in 2022 and 2023, plus a Round 3 selection next year, for a glorified backup who can run designed packages in spot appearances.

The 2021 season is far from over, and San Francisco still has the talent and ability to make a Wild Card push, perhaps even more.

Related Story: 49ers may have no choice but to start Trey Lance vs. Cardinals

But it’s safe to assume the more important element now isn’t to push for the playoffs at the expense of Lance gaining the necessary experience. Instead, the 49ers need to do whatever benefits Lance the most, as NBC Sports Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco pointed out:

"The top objective this season for the 49ers is to maximize their win total and make a push for the playoffs. But, maybe as important, is to set up Lance and the organization for success in the years to come. Lance’s performance against the Cardinals could prove that his remaining as the starter is the solution for both of those goals. At this point, what’s best for Trey Lance is also what’s best for the 49ers."

This approach all but ensures Garoppolo’s tenure as the Niners’ starter has come to a close, earlier than originally anticipated, especially if he misses an extended period of time.

Even then, it’s also abundantly clear San Francisco has to focus all of its efforts on Lance instead of trying to squeeze whatever it can from Garoppolo.

This day was coming. It just arrived sooner than most would have guessed.