In all likelihood, the 49ers let Trey Lance develop as a backup in 2021, but there are reasons why he could end up starting over Jimmy Garoppolo.
All indications are pointing to the San Francisco 49ers starting their veteran, Jimmy Garoppolo, instead of their top-drafted rookie, Trey Lance, at quarterback this season.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan has reiterated as much multiple times, saying the No. 1 job on the depth chart is going Garoppolo’s way, while Lance will need adequate time to develop before he ever begins to take snaps under center.
It’s probably the right move. Despite his own injury history, Garoppolo currently gives Shanahan the best chance at winning right now. And one has to factor in Lance has just one start since 2019, one full season as a starter in general and has only attempted 318 passes over his entire collegiate career.
Despite all his potential talents, Lance is awfully raw.
That said, there are situations that could arise leading to Lance eventually starting for the Niners this season.
Here are four that make a lot of sense.
No. 4: 49ers end up out of the playoff hunt, elect to start Trey Lance
It doesn’t seem feasible at this point because San Francisco is “guaranteed” to make the playoffs, right?
Well, the same was said last year, but a rash of injuries forced the 49ers to a 6-10 record and being eliminated before the regular season came to a close.
True, a 17th regular-season game and the previously added seventh seed in the conference makes for a better playoff push. But let’s envision a scenario where the Niners, riddled with injuries or not, find themselves two or three games back of a playoff berth with two or three weeks remaining.
Or in the simplest terms, fully eliminated altogether.
At that point, there’d be no reason for Shanahan to continue playing Garoppolo, even if he was healthy, with the team’s future now the bigger focus.
San Francisco has a mix of tough and winnable games to close out the season, including Week 14 at the Cincinnati Bengals and Week 15 versus the Houston Texans, which may be prime opportunities to insert Lance into the starting lineup.
No. 3: Trey Lance stars because of a Jimmy Garoppolo injury
Ah, yes. The unavoidable “elephant in the room” and the primary reason why Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers wanted to get Trey Lance in the first place.
The discussion topic of Jimmy Garoppolo injuries is nothing new, and his large-scale absences in 2018 and 2020 forced the Niners to make the move up from No. 12 overall in this year’s draft to No. 3, subsequently grabbing Lance as a result.
Over the last three years, Jimmy G has missed a total of 25 out of a possible 48 regular-season starts, suggesting there’s a good chance San Francisco will have to turn to Lance at some point in 2021. And according to Sports Injury Predictor, Garoppolo is predicted to miss 1.2 games this season.
Related Story: Jimmy Garoppolo injury history, outlook for 2021
Even if it’s just as a temporary bridge option in the middle of his development, there’s a good chance Lance winds up getting at least one start at some point in the near future.
This doesn’t necessarily point to a “forever” transition from Jimmy G to Lance. Perhaps it’d be just for a game or two, depending on the nature of Garoppolo’s injury.
But whatever the result of Lance’s on-field efforts is, they’re sure to be scrutinized.
And the same with Garoppolo’s future, too.
No. 2: 49ers struggle early, Trey Lance comes in to the rescue
Let’s piggyback on a prediction CBS Sports’ Cody Benjamin made shortly after the 49ers’ 2021 regular-season schedule came out.
In Benjamin’s prediction model, the Niners start the upcoming season with Jimmy Garoppolo under center but struggle to a 2-4 beginning of the year, interluded with a Week 6 by in which Kyle Shanahan inserts Trey Lance.
Lance then struggles early, too, but his raw skill set and a dialed-back offense from Shanahan ultimately prove to be the right combination to get San Francisco back on track to a 12-5 record to close out the season.
Does it sound reasonable?
Possibly. Predictions are nothing more than just that, of course.
But the underlying theme here is the reality that any Garoppolo struggles carrying over from a game-to-game basis are ultimately going to push Shanahan to start Lance sooner than later.
Particularly for a 49ers team that invested a lofty draft pick in a player they hope to be the future of the franchise. And with playoff aspirations fully in focus, as soon as Shanahan feels Lance gives the Niners an equal shot at winning games as would Garoppolo, normally, the head coach would make the move.
According to Benjamin, that point just comes earlier than others may have predicted.
No. 1: 49ers get a trade market for Jimmy Garoppolo
It’s silly to think San Francisco would want anything but to trade Jimmy Garoppolo at a point where his value is at its peak.
Before this year’s NFL Draft, one could argue Garoppolo had a halfway decent market despite him coming off yet another injury-plagued year. But the majority of suitors, including teams like the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots, made notable draft moves to land heir-apparent quarterbacks for the future anyway: Justin Fields to Chicago and Mac Jones to the Pats.
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Yet any football fan can attest to the ever-present changes on the quarterbacking landscape. Remember back in 2016 when a playoff-hopeful Minnesota Vikings squad sent off a first-round draft pick in a package to the Philadelphia Eagles for quarterback Sam Bradford after the Vikings lost their starter, Teddy Bridgewater, to a serious injury?
Even if the 2021 quarterback carousel has come to a considerable slowing, there’s always the strong chance another team will either be highly interested or even desperate for a player like Garoppolo between now and the NFL trade deadline, currently predicted to be Nov. 2.
If this winds up being the case, the 49ers may see the long-term benefits of moving as much of Garoppolo’s $26.4 million cap hit this season while recouping something in terms of draft capital.
This could mean Lance gets pushed into the starting fray a bit earlier than anticipated, yet the long-term ramifications could end up being worthwhile anyway.