The 49ers are already thinking about extending Fred Warner, and they’ll soon have to consider Nick Bosa, too. Let’s make some predictions, shall we?
The San Francisco 49ers‘ move up to the No. 3 overall spot in the 2021 NFL Draft occurred for a number of reasons, but the financials of the deal paint a large picture behind why general manager John Lynch and Co. are wanting to make the switch from veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to the rookie, Trey Lance.
Garoppolo is scheduled to make $26.4 million in the next to last year of his current contract. And while the Niners have indicated they’re comfortable, both financially and on the field, with Jimmy G starting in 2021 as Lance develops, the eventual goal will be to make the transition to Lance.
Subsequently moving on from Garoppolo’s hefty contract, which is going to be worth up to $27 million in 2022.
Should San Francisco cut bait next offseason, it’d free up $25.6 million in cap space while the team employs Lance on his relatively cheap rookie contract over the course of four years, five, if the 49ers elect to use a fifth-year option.
It would be wise for the Niners to start saving their money, too, especially with two key players heading towards lucrative extensions: EDGE Nick Bosa and All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner.
Currently, San Francisco is projected to have $23.73 million in cap space for 2022 against a projected $208.2 million salary cap, which doesn’t accurately factor in a yet-to-be-determined carryover from this season. So, while the 49ers are anticipating paying Garoppolo in full this season, putting away as much money as possible for Bosa and Warner would be a wise move.
But what will their respective extensions look like when signed? Let’s start with Warner first, as he’s immediately due for a significant pay raise.
All cap figures and contracts are courtesy of Over the Cap unless otherwise indicated.
49ers Linebacker Fred Warner
Niners fans would rightfully argue Fred Warner is the NFL’s No. 1 linebacker right now.
Warner earned his first Pro Bowl and first-team All-Pro nods in 2020, which were well-deserved, but the kicker is he received only $1.096 million in year three of his rookie contract.
Talk about a deal.
Currently, the average annual value market for linebackers is set by the Seattle Seahawks‘ Bobby Wagner at $18 million per year. Wagner, a perennial Pro Bowler and first-team All-Pro, too, commands the market but also turns 31 years old later this month.
Related Story: 49ers better extend Fred Warner sooner than later
Considering Warner is just hitting his peak at 24 years old, it’s safe to say he could end up commanding more than Wagner.
Spotrac.com’s market-value tool suggests Warner is worth an annual average value of $17.1 million on a five-year deal. But the caveat and fiscal competition for Warner’s extension, for which he’s now eligible, is likely to be felt more from Indianapolis Colts linebacker Darius Leonard, who could push the market well beyond $18 million annually, too.
It would be in the Niners’ best interest to beat the Indy to the punch, setting the new linebacker market first before the Colts have the chance to do it with Leonard.
If so, Warner would still end up being the highest-paid linebacker in NFL history, although no San Francisco fan would complain whatsoever.
Prediction: 49ers extend Fred Warner on a four-year, $76 million deal ($19 million annually) with $40 million guaranteed
49ers EDGE Nick Bosa
In some ways, it’s a good thing the 49ers have a full year before they have to start thinking about an extension for Nick Bosa, and he’s not eligible for one until 2022 anyway.
For starters, Bosa has to prove he’s fully recovered from his devastating 2020 ACL tear, and it might take all of 2021 for him to get his proverbial “football legs” back underneath him, which could equate to a slightly less open-market cost.
San Francisco 49ers
That said, Bosa’s pedigree, which includes being the No. 2 overall draft pick in 2019 and that year’s Defensive Rookie of the Year, won’t make things easier.
Unlike Fred Warner, though, the Niners have a fifth-year option in play for Bosa, given he’s a former first-round pick, and they could potentially execute the fully guaranteed option for 2023 and push off any extension worries they may have. It might not necessarily be to Bosa’s liking initially, but his first concern should be establishing a clean slate of health.
Bosa’s older brother with the Los Angeles Chargers, Joey, currently holds the market on an annual average of $27 million per year with $102 million guaranteed.
If fans thought Warner was going to be expensive, top-tier pass-rushers command significantly more.
The market is only going to increase for this position, meaning Nick Bosa’s injuries aren’t likely to thwart his value too much at all, provided he continues on his upward trajectory. And considering edge rushers typically make more than any other defensive position, there’s a chance Bosa is trending towards being the highest-paid defender in NFL history at some point.
And San Francisco will have to pony up some serious cash, meaning it better start saving now.