Should the San Francisco 49ers select Alabama quarterback Mac Jones at No. 3 overall?
No. That would be a massive reach. Especially when the Niners have the pick needed to select either Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields or North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance in that spot, assuming the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets grab QBs Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, of course.
And it would be an even worse reach considering San Francisco gave up three additional picks, two Round 1 selections the next two years and a 2022 third rounder, to move up from No. 12 to No. 3.
Despite this, there are still odds in favor of Jones being the 49ers’ top pick in this year’s draft.
It’s been easy to dogpile on the idea of the Niners reaching on Jones. Case in point, he’s a notably far lower prospect in the signal-caller big board than the other four and could have possibly been available with the 12th overall pick anyway.
Yet all the criticism doesn’t mean Jones is an awful prospective quarterback. He’s been in the first-round discussion for a while now. It’s not like he’s a day-three flier.
While the fanbase might be upset with the idea, there’s a real chance Jones winds up being San Francisco’s next NFL Draft pick. So it would be worth exploring some of the positives and negatives about him, also diving into how he could potentially fit with the 49ers in 2021 and beyond if selected.
NFL Draft: Mac Jones’ positive traits for 49ers
One of the reasons why NBC Sports Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco thought Mac Jones would be head coach Kyle Shanahan’s preferred choice over someone like Justin Fields or Trey Lance was because of Shanahan’s preference for accuracy, pocket poise and decision-making processes over pure athleticism and elusiveness:
Jones had a 77.4 completion percentage for Alabama last season, so there’s some merit to the accuracy argument. But it’s also important to acknowledge Jones had one of college football’s better offensive lines in 2020.
That said, while Jones isn’t overly elusive, he’s shifty enough within the pocket anyway when facing pressure and doesn’t display any of the happy-feet tendencies San Francisco’s current starting quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, often displays when he’s facing pressure.
Like Garoppolo, Jones’ arm strength doesn’t always equate to good accuracy. Where Jones is going to find his best ball placement is on those short- and intermediate-area routes between the line of scrimmage and the 20-yard line.
From Pro Football Focus, Jones was the most accurate passer in the nation on throws from zero to 10 yards last year and had an 85.1 completion percentage in this area of the field.
That’s where the bulk of the 49ers’ passing efforts have gone during Garoppolo’s tenure since 2017.
And what’s arguably even more important is the timing of Jones’ throws. While going through is reads, balls are often placed right at the window where the toss needs to be when a receiver hits an open mark.
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein explained:
"He displayed nice improvement as he grew into the position from 2019 to 2020. His accuracy and ball placement stand out and he throws a very catchable football with consistent touch on it."
Garoppolo is considered a system quarterback, and Jones is already showing signs the 49ers could put him in a system where he could thrive, too.
NFL Draft: Mac Jones’ negative traits for 49ers
Yes, Mac Jones benefited from one of the most explosive offenses in college football last year, and potentially four of his Crimson Tide offensive teammates could be first-round selections this year.
The Niners offense has weapons, too. Either way, let’s not hold that entire argument against Jones. Rather let’s extrapolate his ability to shoulder an offense on his own.
Jones should be considered an orchestrator of an offense, but he’s nowhere near a playmaker such as Justin Fields or Trey Lance. Playmaking doesn’t necessarily have to involve just scrambling for 18 yards on a 3rd-and-15 when nobody is open and then being able to pick up the first down, no.
In addition, it would be coming up with that improbable and often improvisational play in those clutch moments.
As far as improvisation goes, Jones isn’t it. If he’s forced to vacate the pocket, especially if it’s an off-script play, the data doesn’t suggest success.
This, from USA Today’s Touchdown Wire:
"This is where Mac Jones might have a problem — especially if he’s drafted by a team with an iffy offensive line, and targets who can’t separate from coverage most of the time. In 2020, per Sports Info Solutions, Jones had just 21 dropbacks in which he eventually left the pocket. On those dropbacks, he completed just nine of 19 passes for 99 yards, 71 air yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, two sacks, and a quarterback rating of 80.8. Every single one of those dropbacks came under pressure; that is to say that the Crimson Tide called no plays whatsoever in which Jones left the pocket intentionally."
The data can prompt a conclusion where Jones could thrive in a system where the pieces are all in place, and the context is running smoothly. Interestingly enough, that was the same argument made for Jimmy Garoppolo both in 2019 and last year, particularly when San Francisco started to suffer an overwhelming number of injuries.
Garoppolo wasn’t seen as someone who could carry the 49ers offense on his own anyway, and the idea of Kyle Shanahan’s offensive line or other skill players either suffering through more injury attrition and/or eventually departing in the coming years due to team turnover casts some doubt here.
That leads to the key question Shanahan and the Niners have to ask themselves about Jones: What kind of signal-caller should San Francisco target?
What kind of quarterback do 49ers want?
Yes, Mac Jones will be a reach at No. 3. But if San Francisco selects him, there will be those who support the decision by saying the 49ers didn’t take any risks to ensure they’d get their guy.
And if Jones winds up being the decision, well, that’s that.
Jones has the upside of being accurate and poised within the pocket, particularly on well-timed routes in the short and intermediate portions of the field. Those are staples to Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
San Francisco 49ers
But Jones isn’t going to give Shanahan and the Niners much more than that. If anything, one might see Jones as only a modest trajectory upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo, although obviously younger and coming in on a rookie contract.
Yet if San Francisco is giving up on Garoppolo sooner than later, why replace him with someone of a similar ilk?
It’s likely a philosophical decision Shanahan will have to make: going with an engineer of a well-coordinated offense or going with a playmaker who, while arguably has a less well-rounded body of work, can do all the off-script and explosive things indicative of many of the other top-end quarterbacks taking over the league today.
A pro-level decision equivalent might be choosing between the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen or the Minnesota Vikings’ Kirk Cousins.
Shanahan’s prior preference for Cousins might indicate an answer regarding Jones, but there’s little doubt the 49ers head coach understands how Allen has worked his way into becoming one of the league’s elite signal-callers, a category Cousins has never been at nor likely ever will.
Either way, Shanahan’s choice will certainly end up defining his head-coaching tenure in San Francisco.