Trent Williams remains the SF 49ers’ biggest re-sign candidate before he hits NFL free agency. But here’s why he won’t re-sign.
Yes, the SF 49ers should make any and all reasonable effort to retain eight-time Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams this offseason.
But it’s not going to be as easy as merely suggesting it.
Williams, 32 years old, can’t be hit with the franchise tag after reworking his deal following the 2020 offseason trade that sent him from Washington to the Niners. And with top NFL tackles like the Green Bay Packers’ David Bakhtiari, the Baltimore Ravens’ Ronnie Stanley and the Houston Texans’ Laremy Tunsil receiving massive extensions with their respective teams, Williams’ own value just skyrocketed based on his Hall of Fame-caliber career.
San Francisco tried to re-sign Williams already, but the soon-to-be free agent told reporters at the conclusion of the 2020 season he wanted to see what his value would be on the open market. While he felt the SF 49ers would be his preferred destination, it’s pretty clear Williams understands this is likely to be his last big payout at this stage of his career.
The combination of a diminished 2021 salary cap and nearly 40 other pending free agents is going to hinder the Niners’ efforts to keep Williams around on a long-term deal.
And it’s not too hard to see why the signs are pointing closer to San Francisco letting Williams walk in NFL free agency rather than re-signing him.
So, while it would be in the SF 49ers’ best interests to retain Williams however they can, here are three reasons why they end up letting him walk this offseason instead.
No. 3: Financials don’t make sense for Trent Williams, SF 49ers
According to Spotrac.com’s market-value tool, Trent Williams is worth a three-year deal worth a total of $54.78 million and an average annual value of $18.2 million.
Right now, Spotrac has the Niners with $18.879 million in available cap space for 2021. On the surface, it seems like that’s more than enough for a Williams re-sign deal. Particularly just by looking at the projected annual value.
Without the need to get too deep, though, one could easily see the idea of re-signing any of San Francisco’s other free agents would essentially be impossible without some serious roster jockeying elsewhere. And it would eliminate the SF 49ers from even being modest players elsewhere on the free-agent market. Plus, adding to the complication, the Niners would need to reserve approximately $7 million to sign their 2021 rookie class following this year’s NFL Draft.
OK, so why doesn’t San Francisco simply backload the deal?
It’s not that simple. Williams’ agent will likely advise him to take as much upfront money as soon as possible, namely at this point of his career. And with a number of teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars and NY Jets boasting north of $70 million, Williams won’t have a shortage of suitors willing to pay now.
On top of all that, the SF 49ers have to set aside what promises to be a lucrative amount of cap space to extend their best defensive player, linebacker Fred Warner, who could also take up a deal worth $18 million annually.
That would be a better route to take.
No. 2: There are cheaper free-agent options elsewhere
Just because Trent Williams was the Niners’ best offensive lineman last season doesn’t mean there aren’t any other likable options out there on the open market.
San Francisco is limited in cap space, yes. But it isn’t in the worst situation across the league. Spotrac currently has 11 teams above the projected 2021 salary cap, meaning a number of cap casualties are going to be made between now and the start of the league new year. And other teams are going to be forced to let some of their own high-profile free agents walk.
The SF 49ers shouldn’t be afraid to take advantage of this.
There are two names worth monitoring here: the Jaguars’ Cam Robinson and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Alejandro Villanueva.
Yes, Robinson is a Jaguars re-sign target, and they’d be foolish to let him walk. But Spotrac’s market value for him is $11.3 million for a player who is just now coming off his rookie contract at 25 years old.
Both younger and cheaper than Williams.
Villanueva, meanwhile, is nearly an impossible re-sign possibility for Pittsburgh, which is over $6 million above the cap. While Villanueva is older and probably more expensive than Robinson, the former is all but guaranteed to be on the market.
Even if Villanueva costs something in the range of $15 million per year, that deal is much more affordable than Williams’ would be if retained.
No. 1: SF 49ers can dip into deep NFL Draft offensive line class
The Niners either re-signing Trent Williams or targeting another high-profile free agent like Cam Robinson or Alejandro Villanueva is ultimately going to cost a lot of money. It might be worth it, given the need of an elite-level offensive line. But it doesn’t have to be the only option.
Thankfully, it’s a good year for teams looking to bolster their O-lines via the NFL Draft.
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This year’s class of linemen is tremendously deep, both along the interior spots and for tackles. While names like Oregon’s Penei Sewell, Virginia Tech’s Christian Darrisaw and Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater dominate the chatter about offensive tackles, there are plenty of other quality starting-caliber options who could be had in Rounds 2, 3 and even 4.
Notre Dame’s Liam Eichenberg is a quality target on day two of the draft, and San Francisco has already shown its trust in Fighting Irish offensive linemen by drafting right tackle Mike McGlinchey back in 2018.
Go down the list of O-line prospects, and it’s hard to too many reaches or less-than-impressive prospects.
While replacing a perennial Pro Bowler like Williams with a rookie is always a risky proposition, this year would be the year in which to take that risk. Plus, there’s the added bonus of getting that player on a cheap rookie contract while the SF 49ers could worry about their other roster needs and extensions elsewhere.
Again, Williams should be a re-sign priority. But if it doesn’t happen, one or more of these reasons will be why.