SF 49ers: Which high-paid core player leaves team first?

The SF 49ers are financially committed to a number of high-profile players, but keeping them all may be difficult and someone might have to go.

This is simple: The SF 49ers have a lot of good young players on their roster. Good players want to get paid like good players as soon as they can, and that ultimately drives up a team’s total payroll. There’s a cap on that payroll that varies year to year. Usually, it goes up. But as 2021 has shown, the cap can go down.

Got it? Good.

Let’s take a look at the Niners’ top 10 paid players in 2021, per Over the Cap:

1. QB Jimmy Garoppolo — $26,400,000
2. EDGE Dee Ford — $20,081,871
3. DE Arik Armstead — $12,500,000
4. C Weston Richburg — $11,462,791
5. S Jimmie Ward — $10,937,500
6. EDGE Nick Bosa — $9,325,509
7. LG Laken Tomlinson — $6,585,176
8. RT Mike McGlinchey — $6,006,052
9. TE George Kittle — $5,450,000
10. LB Fred Warner — $3,636,547

Garoppolo has been under the most scrutiny, of course, and his future is directly related with some apparent smoke thrown out by NBC Sports Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco suggesting “no player” on San Francisco’s roster would be considered “untouchable” if there was to be a blockbuster trade for a franchise-type quarterback.

Oh, someone like the Houston Texans’ Deshaun Watson.

That prompted 49ers Webzone’s Al Sacco to bring up the following point:

Warner is due what promises to be a massive contract extension this offseason, potentially in the range north of $18 million annually. Bosa, when that time comes, could end up being the league’s highest-paid player based on his own trajectory and despite his 2020 ACL tear.

Just those two alone are going to cut into whatever finances the SF 49ers will have even if the cap jumps up significantly from a guestimate amount of $181 million this year.

Let’s assume the Niners don’t spend lucratively on the free-agent market this offseason, which would include not re-signing left tackle Trent Williams. Per OTC, San Francisco already has $144.6 million committed to players in 2022. And a number of players like Bosa, Kittle and surely Warner are going to eat up a sizable chunk of that mark.

Same with Armstead, who is due $20 million a little over a year from now but has zero in guaranteed money in 2022.

A guess might be he’s the first of the top-paid players moved, especially considering a post-June 1 cut would free up $15 million in cap space against $5 million in dead money. But it’s important to acknowledge teams get only two post-June 1 cuts of that ilk.

Between now and then, it seems likely San Francisco would want to move on from both Ford and Richburg this offseason, freeing up a combined $21.4 million in cap space. The problem, however, is teams aren’t able to simply cut injured players, and both Ford and Richburg fall into that category after essentially missing all of 2020.

An SF 49ers trade for Deshaun Watson only answers so much

Garoppolo’s contract is also an X-factor, particularly when looking at Watson. As Maiocco pointed out, it might take one or more of the SF 49ers’ top players, regardless of contract, to make a deal work.

By now, it’s almost common knowledge the Niners could create $24.1 million in cap space by moving Garoppolo this offseason. In contrast, Watson’s 2021 cap hit is only $15.9 million with the Texans eating $26.1 million in dead money. The difference would net San Francisco over $8 million in cap space, but that would only apply for 2021.

In 2022, however, Watson’s cap number would increase to $40.4 million. Even if the SF 49ers were able to clear space by moving Garoppolo and potentially one or two of the other top-paid players on the roster, it would create a ripple effect possibly limiting the team’s ability to retain talent.

For a franchise-type quarterback, however, it would probably be worthwhile.

As far as this offseason, though, there’s a good chance one of those top-paid players isn’t around by the time Week 1 comes around. Ford and Richburg seem to be the favorites to be elsewhere in 2021, but their injury designations make things much more difficult.

Needless to say, none of these decisions will be easy in the coming months.