SF 49ers: How much is too much to move up in 2021 NFL Draft?

Recent mock NFL Drafts have the SF 49ers giving up a ton of capital to get to the No. 2 overall pick. Are such deals worthwhile?

The SF 49ers face a crucial crossroads at quarterback this offseason.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan, who’ll call the final shot, has to decide whether or not he wants to stick it out with his current starter, Jimmy Garoppolo, who’ll command up to $26.6 million in cap space after missing the bulk of 2018 and 2020 with varying injuries. And even without the injury factor, questions about whether or not Jimmy G is the player Shanahan still wants to helm his intricate offense.

Should Shanahan and the Niners move on, they’ll save $24.1 million in much-needed cap space, which could go a long way towards locking down many other positions of need and/or retaining a significant portion of the 40 pending free agents the team has in 2021.

If the latter takes place, it makes sense for San Francisco to find Garoppolo’s replacement in the 2021 NFL Draft. With the regular season coming to a close, mock drafts have become the norm.

Two recent mocks, one over at The Draft Network and another at ESPN, suggest the SF 49ers engineer blockbuster trades with the No. 2 overall-drafting NY Jets.

According to The Draft Network’s recent model, the scenario would go the following way:

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell (h/t Niners Nation) also broke down a similar scenario where the Niners make a blockbuster deal to acquire the No. 2 overall pick from the Jets.

It, too, is expensive in terms of draft capital:

The use of wide receiver Jalen Hurd, who has missed the last two years with injuries, might help sweeten a would-be deal based solely on Hurd’s mismatch 6-foot-4 size and potential use as an H-back.

But considering his 2019 back injury and 2020 ACL tear, it’s hard to see New York biting on a player with such recent injury history. And it probably wouldn’t be enough to get the job done anyway, at least based on some 2016 trades for top-two picks in that year’s NFL Draft.

An SF 49ers trade to No. 2 overall in the NFL Draft would be expensive

Niner Noise broke down what could be the low-end value of a potential trade from No. 14 overall to the No. 2 spot here, suggesting San Francisco’s second-round pick in 2021 would be enough to close the draft-pick value-chart point spread, according to Over the Cap.

The problem with charts like that, though, is they don’t account for market value and the reality 30 other teams could be in the mix for that same pick, only upping the Jets’ asking price.

The Draft Network cited the 2016 trade between the Tennessee Titans and LA Rams, which netted Los Angeles quarterback Jared Goff at No. 1 overall:

"The inspiration for this trade was the Los Angeles Rams’ trade for Jared Goff in 2016, when the Rams gave up two 1s, two 2s and two 3s to move up from No. 16 overall."

LA received a fourth- and a sixth-round pick back in return, but it’s pretty clear the Rams had to mortgage a significant portion of their future to land Goff.

A pick later, the Philadelphia Eagles gave up the following to the Cleveland Browns to have the rights to draft quarterback Carson Wentz along with getting a 2017 fourth-round pick:

• Eagles’ 2016 Round 1 pick (No. 8 overall)
• Eagles’ 2016 Round 3 pick (No. 77 overall)
• Eagles’ 2016 Round 4 pick (No. 100 overall)
• Eagles’ 2017 Round 1 pick (No. 12 overall)
• Eagles’ 2018 Round 2 pick (No. 64 overall)

Again, expensive. And the Jets aren’t going to be in a position where trade-up packages are slim. Teams like the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Washington Football Team, NY Giants, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings are all potentially in the mix for shakeups and additions under center in the near future, and it’s not hard to see how a bidding war could ensue.

That prompts the question: Is a trade-up worth it for San Francisco?

How much is too much for the SF 49ers?

General manager John Lynch hasn’t been shy about trading up or down in the NFL Draft.

Barnwell’s suggested trade, while expensive, seems a bit more reasonable. Yet the notion of giving up multiple first-round picks stings quite a lot and doesn’t necessarily make sense unless one understands the reality that a high draft pick only ensures one thing: a better chance at drafting a player the team wanted.

High draft picks do not directly correspond to guaranteed success on the field.

From that vantage point, if the SF 49ers are absolutely sold on a particular quarterbacking prospect, such as BYU’s Zach Wilson or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance (both could easily go at No. 2 overall this April), spending that much draft capital has some merits.

After all, if the player pans out and the Niners are set under center for the next 10 years, no one would look back at the cost Lynch and Co. had to give up to get “their guy.”

For now, though, there’s going to be plenty of resistance and debate whether or not either trade scenario, or any one of a number of different possibilities, would be far too expensive from San Francisco’s vantage point.