With the SF 49ers hosting the Cardinals for both teams’ Week 1 season opener, Niner Noise explores three X-factors that’ll influence the game’s outcome.
In only a few days, we’ll know if the SF 49ers were able to start off their 2020 season on a good note, hoping to go up 1-0 on the year by defeating the upstart Arizona Cardinals at Levi’s Stadium in Week 1.
Based on the early odds reports, the Niners are in good company. According to The Action Network, San Francisco is a seven-point favorite over its NFC West rivals, and one might safely make the assumption Arizona is still the fourth-best team in a stacked division with the SF 49ers squarely at the top.
That said, head coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad had plenty of difficulty with Arizona in both games last year. In Week 9 on Halloween, it took a valiant effort by the Niners defense to stave off a late surge by quarterback Kyler Murray and the Cardinals defense to secure a 28-25 victory. Two weeks later, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo hit running back Jeff Wilson Jr. for a game-winning touchdown in the waning minutes, a garbage-time score thereafter making it 45-34 in favor of San Francisco.
So to say this game will be a blowout in the 49ers’ favor is quite premature. Especially with the Cardinals landing arguably the top wide receiver in all of football during the offseason, three-time All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins.
Yet Hopkins is just one of many X-factors playing into the game, and it’ll be crucial for the Niners to game plan against him while also being wary of Murray’s ability to extend plays with his legs.
Those aren’t the only X-factors facing San Francisco in this Week 1 divisional bout. Here are three more.
No. 3: Can the SF 49ers Win on Third Downs?
An old football cliche is remarkably true: Games are almost always decided on two factors, red-zone productivity and third-down conversions.
If one was to look at last year’s stats alone, this would be an edge almost entirely in favor of San Francisco. In 2019, Kyle Shanahan’s offense converted 44.4 percent of its third-down attempts, which ranked fifth best in the league. On top of that, Jimmy Garoppolo completed 50 percent of his third-down attempts for a first down, which ranked best among all qualifying quarterbacks.
Lost in the mix last year was slot receiver Trent Taylor, who back in 2017, had 19 third-down grabs for a first down — tied for ninth best among all pass-catches and tied for the most among rookies, too.
Good thing Taylor is back from his yearlong absence last year because of a foot injury.
Fun little stat number to chew on for Week 1.
— Peter Panacy (@PeterPanacy) September 8, 2020
In 2019, Jimmy Garoppolo converted 50% of his third-down targets for first downs, No. 1 in the NFL.
In 2019, the #AZCardinals allowed opponents to convert on third downs 46.7% of the time, 3rd worst in the league. #49ers #AZvsSF
Yet it gets better from San Francisco’s vantage point. Last year, the Cardinals surrendered first downs on third-down tries 46.7 percent of the time, which just so happened to be the third worst clip in the league.
So, if you’re wanting to know a big reason why Arizona went 5-10-1 last season, the above stat line is a good place to start.
Still, both games between these two teams last year were down to the wire, meaning relying solely on third-down percentages aren’t necessarily going to be the only deciding factor.
No. 2: SF 49ers’ George Kittle vs. Cardinals’ Isaiah Simmons
SF 49ers fans won’t soon forget tight end George Kittle bowling over Cardinals safety Budda Baker on Oct. 31 last year for a decisive touchdown; the play being even more remarkable because Kittle was dealing with serious ribs and ankle injuries suffered during the game.
But in case you forgot or want to relive it, here you go:
Baker will still be a force for Arizona’s defense, yet the Cardinals elected to go with former Clemson safety Isaiah Simmons in Round 1 of this year’s NFL Draft for the almost-sole purpose of putting him on Kittle.
While this will be a fun bout to watch for years to come, the early advantage should go in Kittle’s favor, right? After all, the same aspects forcing a pandemic-related abbreviation to all teams’ offseason programs have hindered more than a good chunk of first-year players’ developments.
And Simmons won’t be an exception, particularly right out of the gate in Week 1 with nothing but his college experience and training camp to use as experience.
If Kittle has another great game, it’s a good sign the Niners are going to be well on their way to starting off the season 1-0.
No. 1: Can SF 49ers Stop Combination of Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins?
As mentioned earlier, the 2019 Niners had some difficulty with mobile quarterbacks, and Kyler Murray certainly took advantage of this during his two games against San Francisco last year. If anything, he earned the respect from then-49ers defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, who described trying to tackle Murray being like trying to track “a little squirrel.”
Buckner is gone now, of course, replaced by rookie defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, who’ll have his own maturation and adjustment problems in year one.
Linebacker Fred Warner will be available off the reserve/COVID-19 list in time for the game, and he is one of the better options to spy Murray, along with fellow linebacker Kwon Alexander. Yet the quarterback’s abilities to extend plays with his legs could pose problems for San Francisco’s defense.
Especially with DeAndre Hopkins looming.
If Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury is smart, he’ll line Hopkins up against the 49ers’ No. 2 cornerback, not Richard Sherman. The initial estimate is the Niners starting Emmanuel Moseley here, and that’ll prove to be an early tough test for the young defensive back, going up against one of the best in the game.
It’s a matchup last year’s No. 1-ranked defense against the pass ideally wouldn’t like to have to kick off its slate of regular-season games. But that’s the situation San Francisco finds itself in for Week 1, and Hopkins can be a game-changer at any point in the contest.
The 49ers and Cardinals kick off on Sunday, Sept. 13 at 4:25 p.m. ET.