Cardinals vs. SF 49ers: 3 X-factors to determine if Niners start 1-0
By Peter Panacy
No. 3: Can the SF 49ers Win on Third Downs?
An old football cliche is remarkably true: Games are almost always decided on two factors, red-zone productivity and third-down conversions.
If one was to look at last year’s stats alone, this would be an edge almost entirely in favor of San Francisco. In 2019, Kyle Shanahan’s offense converted 44.4 percent of its third-down attempts, which ranked fifth best in the league. On top of that, Jimmy Garoppolo completed 50 percent of his third-down attempts for a first down, which ranked best among all qualifying quarterbacks.
Lost in the mix last year was slot receiver Trent Taylor, who back in 2017, had 19 third-down grabs for a first down — tied for ninth best among all pass-catches and tied for the most among rookies, too.
Good thing Taylor is back from his yearlong absence last year because of a foot injury.
Fun little stat number to chew on for Week 1.
— Peter Panacy (@PeterPanacy) September 8, 2020
In 2019, Jimmy Garoppolo converted 50% of his third-down targets for first downs, No. 1 in the NFL.
In 2019, the #AZCardinals allowed opponents to convert on third downs 46.7% of the time, 3rd worst in the league. #49ers #AZvsSF
Yet it gets better from San Francisco’s vantage point. Last year, the Cardinals surrendered first downs on third-down tries 46.7 percent of the time, which just so happened to be the third worst clip in the league.
So, if you’re wanting to know a big reason why Arizona went 5-10-1 last season, the above stat line is a good place to start.
Still, both games between these two teams last year were down to the wire, meaning relying solely on third-down percentages aren’t necessarily going to be the only deciding factor.