49ers: Analyzing George Kittle’s value following contract extension

Comparing wide receivers to 49ers TE George Kittle

Comparing other positions to George Kittle is a uniquely challenging effort simply because he impacts the game in more facets than any one position. The overall impact of a running back is probably the most similar to that of Kittle’s simply because a good back will impact the run game, pass game, and pass protection, but even that comparison only goes so far.

So to begin this comparison, here are tables showing the receiving statistics of four players over the last three years:

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/12/2020.

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/12/2020.

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/12/2020.

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/12/2020.

There’s a lot of statistics there, so if you don’t want to look at all of them in depth, here’s the basic run-down. Those four players consist of Kittle and three receivers who are in the upper echelon of the NFL: the New Orleans Saints’ Michael Thomas, the Arizona Cardinals’ DeAndre Hopkins, and the Atlanta Falcons’ Julio Jones.

Now, it’s clear from the statistics Player 1 doesn’t have the same counting stats as the other three players, though the gap in the last two years isn’t as large as anticipated.

Player 1 is Kittle, Player 2 is Thomas, Player 3 is Hopkins, and Player 4 is Jones.

Just looking at the raw stats, Kittle lags significantly behind the three receivers in touchdowns, which is a noted weakness of the star tight end. Kittle’s catch percentage is on par, if not above Jones and Hopkins but behind Thomas, his first downs also lag behind, and the biggest sign, his targets and receptions are quite behind.

By this, there is an argument to be made Kittle is not nearly as valuable in the receiving game as these three receivers. And while his touchdowns are lacking, looking closer at their production can show a different story.

Over the course of his three-year career, Kittle has averaged 9.6 yards per target and 13.6 yards per reception, which takes into account his rookie year which involved him much less frequently than these last two years of his emergence. He had only 306 targets. While it may seem wrong to include Kittle’s rookie year that has not been indicative of his performance recently, keeping it helps shows a full picture.

Because of the tendency of the 49ers to use their rushing attack more often than other teams, and because of the success of it, Kittle doesn’t get the number of targets a bona fide No. 1 receiver in another offense would. But using the yards-per-target metric, there is a way to try and predict what his offensive impact in terms of yards would be if he was given WR1 reps.

Thomas had 481 targets over the last three years with 9.1 yards per target. Hopkins had 487 targets with 8.4 yards per target, and Jones had 475 targets with a 9.5 yards per target.

Taking the average of these three target amounts and multiplying it by Kittle’s 9.6 yards per target gives a crude representation of what his impact could be if he was given the volume like the top receivers of the league. With this calculation, Kittle would have gained 4,617 yards over the course of his career or almost 1,200 yards more than his current average.

And even if we removed the first year and calculated just using targets the last two years, when Kittle would have deserved the high number of targets, the number stays high because Kittle’s yards per target move up to 10.0. He would have averaged 162 targets per season, 30 more than his record-breaking year and would have had 3,240 yards over the last two years, 800 more than his current stats. That would have put him 200 yards or so behind the combined yards of the season leader each year.

That’s, without question, elite production on par with the best receivers in the NFL.

So what does it mean? Well, for starters, it proves what 49ers fans have known for the last two years: Kittle has shown himself to be equal to top wide receivers. But it also shines a light on what Kittle’s value is. His efficiency is almost unmatched, and his production is superb despite limited opportunities. Given the receiving share of a top player, Kittle would easily be in the top three every year in receiving yards and receptions. Off this alone, a contract similar to that of Jones or Thomas could be justified. But Kittle’s value doesn’t come only from receptions.