A reduced salary cap in 2021 could force the 49ers into some tough financial decisions between now and next offseason, including these possible cuts.
The San Francisco 49ers are watching their payroll rise at one of the worst possible times imaginable.
Not long ago, the thought was the NFL salary cap would increase up to $240 million in 2021, thanks to the wide array of ways the league is making money and following the trend of general cap increases seen over the past few years. Yet the recent COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent repercussions, both known and unknown, ultimately translated into the league and players union understanding the 2021 cap could drop all the way down to $175 million from the near-$200 million it’s at right now.
This has a crucial impact on the Niners, both right now and in the not-so-distant future. Currently, according to Over the Cap, San Francisco has $170,187,585 in total cap liabilities for 2021, just a $5 million shade under the projected $175 million mark. This doesn’t include, however, possible re-sign deals for pending free agents like cornerback Richard Sherman, offensive tackle Trent Williams, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, cornerback K’Waun Williams and tight end George Kittle.
And with regards to Kittle, it could be one of the reasons the 49ers and a would-be Kittle extension reached an impasse.
Needless to say, if the Niners want to keep the core of their roster together, they’re going to have to engineer some serious roster moves, which include possible renegotiations, extensions/base-salary conversions and cap casualties.
In this slideshow, Niner Noise focuses on the last possibility, exploring players who may end up being cap casualties once the 2020 season is in the books and the front office needs to clear some money to fit underneath the cap.
No. 5: 49ers Left Guard Laken Tomlinson
San Francisco already underwent some serious changes along its offensive line during the offseason, losing both left tackle Joe Staley and right guard Mike Person, then replacing them with Trent Williams and either Daniel Brunksill or Tom Compton, respectively.
Yet there could be even more changes in 2021.
Starting left guard Laken Tomlinson has been a staple for the Niners offense ever since being acquired from the Detroit Lions early in 2017, missing only one game during that stretch. Currently, he’s signed through 2021. But given the 49ers’ precarious cap situation, it’s highly likely the 28-year-old Tomlinson doesn’t see the final year of his current deal.
Should the Niners elect to move on, they’d have to eat $5.5 million in dead money against only $250,000 in cap savings if he was to be cut prior to June 1. After that date, however, the cap savings jumps to $4.5 million with only $1.25 million in dead money.
It would get tricky with San Francisco having to get its top 51 contracts under $175 million by the start of the league new year. Yet if the team elects to grab a promising lineman in the 2021 NFL Draft, not signing him until after that date would allow the 49ers to reach that point on the calendar, cutting Tomlinson and generating much more in cap space.
It would work, as long as a would-be rookie develops quickly enough.
No. 4: 49ers Kicker Robbie Gould
It’s a bit strange to consider the Niners inked veteran kicker Robbie Gould to a four-year, $19 million contract ahead of 2019 after he was hit with a franchise tag, subsequently putting forth a season in which he converted a mere 74.2 percent of his field-goal tries.
But that happened, it’s in the books and there’s not much to be done about it until his contract language begins to change in 2021.
In a sense, both of Gould’s 2021 and 2022 contract years are identical in the fact neither has guaranteed money attached to them. For the contract novices out there, things get weird when players no longer have guaranteed money left on their respective deals, and that’s the situation Gould will find himself in a little less than a year from now.
Kickers aren’t necessarily a dime a dozen, so the saying goes. But their production isn’t exactly impossible to replace.
What matters more, however, is San Francisco can free up $3.75 million by cutting the would-be 38-year-old Gould in 2021 against $1.5 million in dead money.
For a team tight on cap space, this might be one of the bigger no-brainers for the 49ers’ front office next offseason.
No. 3: 49ers Center Weston Richburg
Getting into the tougher cap casualties here.
Laken Tomlinson would be a tough cut, but head coach Kyle Shanahan prioritizes his tackles and center more than guards. And yet veteran center Weston Richburg, whose five-year, $47.5 million free-agent contract back in 2018 was quite the outlier, could be in danger of being terminated before it sees its finale in 2022.
The Niners already have two “option years” in 2023 and 2024 to spread out the bonus. And cutting Richburg before June 1 wouldn’t make much sense, as it would generate well over $8 million in dead money against just under $3 million in cap space.
As was the case with Tomlinson, though, should San Francisco develop a cheap center in the interim and/or find someone in the 2021 NFL Draft to take over, the financial ramifications could be adjusted with a post-June 1 cut of Richburg.
Doing this would save $8.35 million against $3,055,141 in dead money.
Richburg enjoyed a productive year for the 49ers before suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 14 last year. But his absence revealed how the 49ers can get by without his services. Another player might be a downgrade, especially initially. But that’s the situation the cap-stressed Niners find themselves in.
No. 2: 49ers Linebacker Kwon Alexander
The Niners have a serviceable backup for Weston Richburg in Ben Garland. They have a proven replacement for the next possible cap casualty on this list, linebacker Kwon Alexander.
Second-year linebacker Dre Greenlaw.
Greenlaw’s ascent, thanks to Alexander’s torn pectoral suffered on Oct. 31 last year, makes Alexander something of an excess commodity in the long run, especially on the fiscal front. True, boasting an elite-level crop of starting-caliber linebackers, including Greenlaw, Alexander and Fred Warner, is a luxury few other teams have.
Yet it’s simply unsustainable.
Alexander is due to make up to $16,521,440 in 2021. But like Gould, there’s nothing by the way of guaranteed money on the contract after this year. Cutting Alexander before June 1, 2021 would save just over $6.1 million, albeit against $10.4 million in dead money. So you could potentially look at a post-June 1 cut date.
But if San Francisco has to wiggle underneath the cap, putting yet another player on the cut list after this date might be a bit too difficult.
As such, the 49ers may have to eat a sizable portion of Alexander’s contract to free up that much-needed space.
No. 1: 49ers EDGE Dee Ford
At some point, the Niners are going to have to dish out big money to their best defensive player, EDGE Nick Bosa. He’s the team’s top pass-rusher, without question. And while it’s a luxury to boast two elite-level pass-rushers, the other being Dee Ford, keeping both around for the long run isn’t going to be something San Francisco’s brass can maintain forever.
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Especially considering Ford’s injury history. He played in only 11 regular-season games last year and saw the field for just over 22 percent of defensive snaps in 2019.
Ford’s health is vital for the team’s chances this season, yes. And it’s ideal to have two top pass-rushers, too. But with the 49ers inking defensive tackle Arik Armstead to a new deal this offseason, keeping Ford around beyond this upcoming season simply isn’t feasible.
Again, there’s no guaranteed money on Ford’s contract in 2021, 2022 and 2023, which helps from a financial standpoint. Cutting him before June 1 would also generate $12.8 million in cap space against $4.8 million in dead money.
While it would be tempting to wait until June 1 to do it, freeing up $16 million in total, the Niners may not be in position to wait that long.
Especially if a player like George Kittle is potentially going to hit the open market as an alternative.
Regardless, San Francisco is going to face some tough cap situations heading into 2021, and it’s likely that year’s team winds up looking noticeably different than the one taking the field this upcoming season.