San Francisco 49ers: 3 players who could take step back in 2020
Niner Noise looks at which 49ers might regress in 2020.
The NFL is notorious for its promotion of parity. With only 16 — soon to be 17 — games on the schedule and the fickle nature of the game, the idea is that any team, like the San Francisco 49ers last year, can make the jump from bottom-dweller to top of the world.
One of the primary reasons this happens is regression.
A dominant football season is like catching lightning in a jar. When it happens, you need to cherish it and use it as much as you can. Because the fact of the matter is most teams go through some form of regression from their peak years. The Los Angeles Rams played in the Super Bowl one year and finished third in the NFC West the next.
The reason? Regression of their offense, specifically of their offensive line and running game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears went from shocking contenders to relative obscurity. The cause? Natural regression from their other-worldly defenses to more usual dominance left their teams vulnerable with a weak offense.
The point is that nothing can be certain in the NFL. The 49ers are likely not going to see the same level of pass-rush dominance simply because it’s nearly impossible to repeat that. Circumstances change, and things just don’t click anymore.
The same can be applied to players. The “sophomore slump” is in many ways a form of regression caused by increased focus from opposing teams. More tape on a player results in more ways to challenge them. Other times, the chips just don’t fall the way they did earlier.
On a team like the 49ers, regression is likely to happen in some places. The way it’s counteracted is by progression from other units. If the pass rush falters a little bit next year, then the secondary might have progressed to mitigate that. Or maybe the offense can score more. There will also be some regression from individual players, too. I’m going to highlight three players I think run the highest risk of regression.
An important disclaimer: I don’t think these players are bad and won’t contribute. There is also no certainty over how regression happens in the NFL; if there was, teams would never deal with it. But some key red flags will come up that are classic tales of regression to occur. It’s up to the player to improve in such a way they can beat those odds.