49ers: Arik Armstead leaving is good for Solomon Thomas

Solomon Thomas, the San Francisco 49ers’ former first-round NFL Draft pick, has struggled to get going in his pro career. But after a resurgent season, is Arik Armstead possibly leaving the Niners the best thing for Thomas?

When the San Francisco 49ers swapped picks with the Chicago Bears to open up the 2017 NFL Draft, while also talking the Bears into handing over three more draft picks, it seemed like then-new Niners general manager John Lynch had started his career with one of the great draft-day fleecings.

The Bears made the entire situation look all the better for San Francisco, as they took former North Carolina quarterback Mitch Trubisky — a player the 49ers weren’t interested in — with the pick. Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan got the man they were planning on drafting all along, Stanford defensive lineman Solomon Thomas, along with a treasure trove of extra picks.

From any way you looked at it, the Niners were going to be the winners of that particular trade.

But in hindsight, it looks a little less rosy for either team.

Trubisky has been anywhere from mediocre to awful in his tenure as the Bears starting quarterback. Outside of Thomas, the 49ers used the trade to draft cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon (after swapping the pick they got from Chicago with the New Orleans Saints, moving up one spot) and used the fourth-round selection as ammunition to get back into the first round to select Alabama linebacker Reuben Foster.

Foster is currently on Washingon’s roster, although he didn’t play in 2019, and Witherspoon has had an up-and-down career and currently finds himself looking at 2020 as a do-or-die season.

And then there’s Thomas, the man the Niners say they wanted all along in the draft, but who enters his fourth NFL season still very much a question mark both in terms of where he fits best and how much of a game changer he can actually be.

After a rookie season, where he failed to make much of an impact, his sophomore campaign was a tumultuous one overshadowed by the death of his older sister, Ella, in January of 2018. Thomas has since admitted the struggle of playing football in the wake of the tragedy, but it didn’t help to paint his career in a better light on the field.

2019 found him relegated to a depth role as part of a deep 49ers defensive line which helped propel the team to a Super Bowl berth, but Thomas’ impact on the team continued to be minimal.

Most interestingly, however, is San Francisco’s 2019 defensive line group featured a player who found himself in a similar situation to Thomas’ heading into last season, albeit for different reasons.

The 49ers made former Oregon defensive lineman Arik Armstead the 17th overall selection in the 2015 NFL Draft, and much was expected of him coming into a 49ers team that was coming off a bizarre end to the former head coach Jim Harbaugh era in 2014.

Armstead proceeded to struggle as an NFL player for the better part of his first four seasons, as lack of production and injuries allowed him to total just 98 tackles, nine sacks, one forced fumble and a pass defense during that span, while playing in just 46 of a possible 64 games.

To say the Niners were expecting more of their first-round pick, in spite of the tumult surrounding the team, would be an understatement.

And yet the team opted to pick up Armstead’s fifth-year option in April of 2018, meaning he was guaranteed his $9 million contract in March of 2019. Given Armstead’s track record, the move was met with a fair amount of skepticism by 49ers fans and pundits alike.

The defensive lineman responded with his best season as a pro, leading the defense that was among the best in the NFL with 10 sacks, while adding 54 tackles, two pass defenses and two forced fumbles, totals which weren’t just career highs, but often surpassed his career totals in a single year.

Pro Football Focus also thought very highly of him, ranking him as the 30th best-graded player for the 2019 season. Armstead finished the year with an 89.6 overall grade, including the playoffs, as he created 73 total pressures, good for a tie for 17th in the league.

Now the conversation isn’t just about whether Armstead is a good player, but if the 49ers can afford to pay him the big money most likely coming his way after a breakout year.

For the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume two things: First, the 49ers won’t be able to find a way to keep Armstead around, and he is either allowed to walk in free agency, or Lynch works out a tag-and-trade situation similar to what the Kansas City Chiefs did with EDGE Dee Ford last offseason. Second, the 49ers choose not to pick up Thomas’ fifth-year option, making the 2020 season his last guaranteed season in San Francisco.

The argument, then, is that these moves might actually be good for Thomas, especially the first of the two.

The central tenant of this thought process is simple: Without the guarantee of another year, be it with the 49ers or anywhere else, Thomas should take his fourth season as a challenge, one which would hopefully help raise his level of play.

Outside of that is the idea, without Armstead’s 2019 level of production, someone will need to step up and fill in the gap. The likeliest option, other than just re-signing Armstead and hoping last season was an indication of what the defender will be from here on out rather than a blip on a sort of mediocre career up until now, is to attempt to get that production by committee.

That could mean bringing back defensive end Ronald Blair, another unrestricted free agent who is coming off an ACL tear suffered back in November but could be ready for 2020, defensive end Damontre Moore, who broke his arm in a Week 12 win over the Green Bay Packers, or other low-end free agents to fill in the gaps.

But it also means that more will be asked of Thomas, who could play the Armstead role of lining up on the outside on base downs and kicking inside against the pass. Thomas’ response would be a good indicator of where he is as a player and what he might want out of his future in the NFL.

It’s not exactly a secret to say Thomas has been pretty disappointing as an NFL player, especially given his draft pedigree. But while he may never live up to his draft slot, he still has a chance to stake a claim for himself as a key player on a contending team.

If Armstead leaves for another team in 2020, it will be vital for Thomas to take advantage of what could be a major boost in playing time.

His success at getting anywhere close to his potential will not just have an impact on how good the 49ers defense can be in 2020, but also on what his opportunities in the NFL will look like past next season.

It’s not exactly make or break, since first-round picks often get second shots no matter how well they play on their rookie deals. But how Thomas plays in 2020, especially if more is asked of him than has been in years past, will tell the 49ers and the NFL a lot about the player in 2020 and beyond.