Revisiting 2019 record prediction for 49ers after Week 3
Week 5, Monday, Oct. 7 vs. Cleveland
The Cleveland Browns were the talk of the offseason, with many projecting them to win the AFC North and make some noise in the playoffs.
But following a deflating opening-day loss to the Tennessee Titans 43-13, the noise quieted down a bit, until they crushed a hapless New York Jets squad on the following Monday night 23-3. The team sits at 1-2 heading into Week 4 after they scuffled through a loss to the equally perplexing Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night, losing 20-13.
They have the high-flying Baltimore Ravens for Week 4, meaning there’s a good chance the Browns could be coming into Levi’s Stadium (for their already third prime-time game) with a 1-3 record.
The record is less telling than how the team has looked on the field. Second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield hasn’t been the broken-play mastermind he showed himself to be last season. And while his new receiver corps, led by Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, has shown in flashes, the offense, engineered by first-year head coach Freddie Kitchens, has looked uncomfortable so far in 2019.
Their defense has mostly lived up to its billing, minus the opening week thrashing by the Titans where they seemed out of sorts, but hasn’t been able to do enough to overcome the unexpected deficiencies on offense.
All that said, the Browns have looked unable to get out of their own way so far in 2019. And while the 49ers haven’t always done so, they’ve shown the ability to win in spite of that.
With plenty of time to prepare, look for the 49ers to continue their winning ways in Week 5.
April: Loss, 3-1
September: Win, 4-0
Week 6, Sunday, Oct. 13 at Los Angeles Rams
This one is a little more difficult.
The NFC champion Rams have also started the season 3-0, with wins over the Carolina Panthers on the road, the New Orleans Saints at home and last Sunday’s win in Cleveland over the aforementioned Browns.
But in spite of the record, they haven’t looked to be close to the offensive juggernaut they’ve been in the first few years under head coach Sean McVay.
They jumped out on the Panthers early, only to nearly surrender the lead altogether late, winning by just three. The Saints were without starting quarterback Drew Brees for most of the game, while both offenses looked inept in Cleveland.
So yes, they sport an identical 3-0 record to the 49ers. But the Rams have been inconsistent in doing so.
But to be fair, so have the 49ers, at least on offense.
Both teams, however, have sported top defenses so far in 2019, with the 49ers sitting at No. 2 in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA metric (minus-41.5 percent), while the Rams are No. 5 (minus-23.0 percent).
(Note: these numbers have yet to be updated for Week 3, as of this writing).
With all this taken into account, it feels like this will be a closer game than outsiders might have expected. But with the 49ers coming off a short week, the Rams are still more likely to win this contest.
April: Loss, 3-2
September: Loss, 4-1
Week 7, Sunday Oct. 20 at Washington
I might have been too easy on the Washington Football Club back in April, as the start of this season has begun even more poorly than expected.
Not only is Washington 0-3 after getting thumped by the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football to end Week 3, but its’ done so while featuring a minus-31 point differential, tied with the New York Giants for fourth worst in the NFL (behind only Miami, Pittsburgh and the Jets).
Without tackle Trent Williams, who is holding out in search of a better contract, the offensive line has been bad. Especially in run blocking, with PFF grading the team at 66.9 overall in pass blocking, and 59.1 in run blocking through two games.
I wouldn’t expect this Washington team to put up much of a fight, even if this is a 10 a.m. PT start on the east coast.
April: Win, 4-2
September: Win, 5-1
Week 8, Sunday, Oct. 27 vs. Carolina
This is a game that looks quite different than it did back in April, but for reasons that just couldn’t have been predicted back then.
The Panthers have scuffled to a 1-2 start, getting beaten at home in Weeks 1 and 2 by the Rams and Buccaneers, respectively, before taking the show on the road and defeating the Arizona Cardinals quite handily this past Sunday.
The major surprise, however, has been both Carolina losses have featured a clearly struggling (and still-injured) quarterback, in Cam Newton, while the win came with second-year quarterback Kyle Allen at the helm.
Allen looked comfortable running the Panthers offense on Sunday, although the opponent should be taken into account before getting over excited about the young quarterback’s future. But the Panthers have already ruled Newton out for their Week 4 trip to Houston, and there is no clear indication of just how hurt the former NFL MVP actually is.
Still, I’m sticking to my original pick here, and betting on the Panthers swings from Houston, back home, then out to London, followed by a trip west, even with a bye in between those two long trips, might have an impact on the team.
This is the type of team the 49ers, if they expected to be playoff contenders, will need to win.