49ers can win the NFC West in 2019… if things fall into place

While a successful 2019 campaign for the San Francisco 49ers might merely include an 8-8 finish, it’s not out of the question to see them pull off an NFC West crown. If things go well, of course.

Of course, this is a bit of a hyperbole statement. The San Francisco 49ers could easily win the NFC West in 2019 if things go well enough. Heck, they could win the Super Bowl if all things line up for head coach Kyle Shanahan and Co.

But rather than dive into all the overly optimistic reasons why this could happen in 2019, one should instead look at the context.

It’s something Good Morning Football’s Kay Adams suggested, promoting the idea the Niners have the “firepower” to upend the defending division and NFC champion Los Angeles Rams this season:

There are a lot of X-factors here, of course. Most of San Francisco’s chances will hinge on the health and performance abilities of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, whose 2018 ACL tear all but derailed any prospects for a Niners postseason run.

The 49ers have about as deep a running back corps as there is in the league, right now, and spent effort reinforcing their wide receivers, too. Defensively, general manager John Lynch invested stock in edge rushers Dee Ford and Nick Bosa, which should greatly improve the pass rush.

All that should help, too.

Garoppolo’s five-game win streak to close out 2017 — with a far less-impressive supporting cast that year — isn’t forgotten among many analysts and pundits. And while Jimmy G has just 10 pro-level starts under his belt, he has already flashed traits of being a true franchise-changing signal-caller.

That’s good news there, of course. But how does all that translate into winning the NFC West?

Well, that’s where context comes into play.

Forget the Niners’ 2019 schedule for a moment, instead focusing on the three division rivals. The Arizona Cardinals are restarting the rebuild process after a one-and-done year under 2018 head coach Steve Wilks. Perhaps the Cards finish with a slightly better record than last year, allowing first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury to put an initial stamp on things.

Instead, the real competition for San Francisco within the division remains both the Rams and Seattle Seahawks.

Seattle is intriguing, of course. After what looked to be a disastrous 2018 offseason, which in many ways emulated what the 49ers went through back in 2015, the Seahawks finished 10-6, led the league in rushing and even secured a playoff berth.

So much for a down year.

But Seattle also endured some losses during this offseason, including trading away EDGE Frank Clark and parting ways with then-injured and now-retired wide receiver Doug Baldwin. The Seahawks hope an incoming class of rookies, including wide receiver D.K. Metcalf, can make up the difference. Yet that’s not an automatic by any means.

Maybe Seattle finally has its down year in 2019. That would be one of those “go well” scenarios for the 49ers, right?

The same should be said for the Rams, who could be due for a proverbial Super Bowl “hangover” after hanging a three-point stinker in their loss to the New England Patriots last February.

It’s anyone’s guess how the ugly, boring defeat affects Rams head coach Sean McVay’s squad. Yet L.A. was in “win now” mode, and it failed. A number of key contributors — safety Lamarcus Joyner, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and offensive guard Rodger Saffold — are no longer in the picture, of course. But let’s get down to the base level of McVay’s squad: the offense.

Late in the year, this unit suffered a notable drop off in production following running back Todd Gurley’s knee injury. Rams quarterback Jared Goff needs play action to be effective, and it’s no surprise the quarterback’s passer rating went into the tank late in the year, save the two final games against both the Cardinals and 49ers’ inept defenses:

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/7/2019.

Gurley is still dealing with the knee injury, which plagued him late last season. And according to reports, he’s not going to be the “bell cow” of the Rams offense any longer.

How much this impacts Goff and McVay’s offense is yet to be determined, of course. But the Patriots weren’t the only team to figure out how to frustrate Goff and the Rams offense. If the 49ers defense winds up being improved as much as it’s hoped to be, perhaps this unit will be next in line to handle what L.A. could do.

San Francisco can get help from the rest of both the Seahawks and Rams’ opponents, too.

All told, the Niners could wind up winning the division after all. They’ll need to live up to expectations, of course. And benefiting from some of their rivals’ possible setbacks wouldn’t hurt matters, either.