San Francisco 49ers: Predicting Tevin Coleman’s stats for 2019

With the San Francisco 49ers boasting one of the more versatile and explosive running back corps in 2019, where will Tevin Coleman stack up amongst the group?

Following running back Jerick McKinnon’s ACL injury during training camp in 2018, the San Francisco 49ers saw the emergence of running back Matt Breida, who would transform into one of the league’s most complete and dominating backs for the 2018 season.

And while Breida also suffered through niggling injuries for much of the year, forcing the Niners to dive well and truly down into the depth chart, it came as somewhat of a surprise when the team signed running back Tevin Coleman during free agency, given the already loaded backfield it possessed.

Running back was one position most thought the 49ers were in no need of further adding to. With McKinnon, Breida and Raheem Mostert all expected to be healthy for the upcoming season, what was the point of adding yet another back to an already crowded position room?

This is why.

Coleman and head coach Kyle Shanahan have history together from Shanahan’s time in Atlanta as offensive coordinator of the Falcons in 2015 and 2016. Coleman knows the offensive scheme and, in turn, Shanahan already knows what Coleman is capable of and how to utilize him to the best of his ability.

Shanahan has also mentioned on numerous occasions you can’t have too much talent at one position.

Add to that the relatively cheap deal they signed Coleman to, two-years for $8.5 million and the opportunity for Shanahan to land one of his former pupils, was too good to pass up on. Given the still unknown surrounding McKinnon this signing is not only a good one, but also likely an insurance policy.

Since originally being drafted by the Falcons in 2015, Coleman’s rushing yards have gone up steadily year by year, with 2018 being his most productive thus far. Coleman finished 2018 with 167 carries for 800 rushing yards, averaging 4.8 yards per attempt and four touchdowns. He also had 32 receptions for 276 receiving yards, averaging 8.6 yards per reception and five touchdowns.

While there will likely be some sort of rotation between Coleman, McKinnon and Breida, at this stage, Coleman is my favorite to take up starting duties. In predicting his stats for 2019, there are several things we need to take in to consideration.

Firstly, even if Coleman starts at No. 1, we still don’t know how exactly Shanahan intends to utilize his backs. Whether the snaps will be spread fairly evenly, or we see the bulk of the carries given to one or two players.

Secondly, while Coleman is a proven pass catcher, so are both McKinnon and Breida, with Breida seeing a huge improvement in his pass-catching ability in 2018.

This provides Shanahan with three different options on passing plays.

Thirdly, the health of all three players will play a huge factor for the potential stats Coleman will accrue during the season. So, will we see an increase in production for Coleman in 2019?

The short answer, probably not. Unless the unthinkable happens and both McKinnon and Breida sustain injuries early in the season, it’s unlikely there would be the amount of snaps required for Coleman to surpass his 2018 season.

Maybe it’s a conservative approach, but I’m predicting Coleman to rush for around 600 yards and rack up 200 receiving yards. His lowest rushing average came in 2017 with 4.0 yards per carry, with the 4.8 yard average he recorded last year being his best. There’s no reason he should see any sort of dramatic drop off regarding his rushing average.

But like I’ve mentioned, getting the amount of snaps he needs to come close to 2018’s total is going to be a hard task to achieve.

Might I be wrong? Sure. I could be way off in my prediction. However, with such a depth filled position group, he’s going to have to set the world on fire to be doing much better.