Jimmy Garoppolo’s health is the 49ers’ biggest X-factor for 2019

As is the case for most teams in the NFL, the health of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is imperative for the San Francisco 49ers’ 2019 season. But just how important is Garoppolo to the team’s success? Niners Noise weighs in.

We’ve already seen the movie called 49ers: A Year Without a Quarterback, so we pretty much know how it ends.

A losing season.

A high draft pick.

Swarms of disappointed fans.

Needless to say, it’s not something any 49er fan wants to relive any time soon.

So the question of how vital quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is to the 49ers’ success in 2019 — and beyond — almost feels too obvious to venture further into. It doesn’t feel like an overstatement, then, to say it this way:

Garoppolo being healthy is the difference between the Niners having a chance at busting into the playoff conversation or ending up picking in the top 10 of the 2020 NFL Draft. And while he’s not alone in this (ask essentially ever other team, except maybe the Philadelphia Eagles from two years ago, how they think the season would go if their starting quarterback went down), given the track record of the rest of the QB room for the 49ers, it feels like the team has even less room for error on the current squad.

The argument, then, is built at least in part on how dicey the options are behind the Niners’ starter.

Former Iowa QB C.J. Beathard has played in 13 games for the 49ers in two seasons, starting 10 and winning just one of those starts. His passing stats have been fairly pedestrian in those games, too, with just 2,682 yards (206.3 per game), 12 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and an unremarkable 57.3 completion percentage.

Former undrafted free agent, Nick Mullens, finished off last season once both Garoppolo and Beathard went down with injury, playing in and starting the final eight games of 2018. His play has many thinking Mullens earned the backup job for 2019. And while he did manage to do as much damage in eight games as Beathard has in 13, the numbers are still less than inspiring.

Sure, his 2,277 yards (284.6 per game), 13 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and 64.2 percent completions stand out in comparison, but there is one set of numbers that does him in: Mullens finished 2018 with just three wins in eight games.

Garoppolo, by comparison, has played well in his eight starts for the Niners, already throwing for more yards than both his counterparts (2,278), while throwing 12 touchdowns against eight interceptions. More importantly, the team has finished 6-2 in his starts, albeit most of those wins came in the 5-0 stretch to finish out 2017.

The major thing to keep in mind with all these numbers, whether good, bad or otherwise, is the sample-size conversation. As a member of the 49ers, and a start in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense, Beathard technically has more starts and games played, but none of the three have played much.

In the end, however, it all comes down to the eye test.

Garoppolo just seems to have the look of someone who has the intelligence, skills and overall talent to be the long-term answer at quarterback, something the team obviously agrees with, having given him that massive contract after just five starts. And while this isn’t an article about whether Garoppolo is the “right” fit, have no doubt he appears to be the guy.

All that said, the 49ers cannot survive another year without a high-level NFL starting quarterback leading the offense. The defense has improved, yes, and Shanahan is an offensive coaching mastermind. But we’ve all seen what happens when replacement-level guys are under center: 1-10 in 2017 and 3-10 last season.

That’s not going to get the job done.

The 49ers need to win games in 2019 in order to show that the rebuild under Shanahan and general manager John Lynch is heading in the right direction. The only way to give themselves the best shot at doing that is for a healthy Garoppolo to start all 16 games at quarterback.