Deep passes noticeably absent from 49ers offense in 2018

The San Francisco 49ers have tried three different starting quarterbacks in 2018, but deep passing hasn’t exactly been a part of the signal-callers’ repertoires. Why?

During San Francisco 49ers training camp, then-starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo would spend extra reps after practice working on arguably the weakest part of his game: deep passing.

Maybe it would have made a big difference had he not suffered a season-ending ACL injury back in Week 3. And his 7.7 average yards per pass attempt over those three games was actually lower than the 8.3 mark he had in five-plus contests a year ago.

Still, head coach Kyle Shanahan’s West Coast offense is known for taking deep shots at opportunistic moments. The majority of those opportunities fell into the hands of Garoppolo’s backup, C.J. Beathard, who has now seen his starting duties go to Nick Mullens.

So far, the data on Mullens is inconclusive. But when compiled together, one thing is certain: the Niners haven’t been attempting deep passes nearly as much as a year ago. Nor have they enjoyed the same kind of success.

Beathard and his five starts make up the majority of the 2018 data, obviously. Let’s start by looking at him.

According to Pro Football Focus, Beathard attempted passes of 20-plus yards this season just 8.3 percent of his dropbacks, which ranks 36th out of 37 qualifiers on the year. And his passer rating on those attempts is just 79.2, which ranks 24th.

His rookie season, Beathard was attempting deep shots 11.4 percent of the time and had a passer rating of 95.8 on such plays.

Cross comparing by using NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Beathard’s 2018 average completed air yards is 5.0, whereas the 2017 number was 5.6. That number doesn’t seem like a lot. But when considering the total spread among all qualifying quarterbacks is 4.5, more than half a yard’s difference is significant.

So, why the decline in deep passing?

One explanation is the obvious issue: Beathard doesn’t have the best pocket awareness and has never handled pressure well, as his 42.3 passer rating when under pressure ranks 36th out of 41 qualifiers. The longer he holds onto the ball — an average of 2.61 seconds, per Next Gen Stats — the better the chance a defending pass-rusher gets home.

Mullens, on the other hand, is much quicker with his ball release. The problem, though, is his arm strength is nowhere near that of Beathard. So, while Beathard hasn’t exactly been great with deep passing, he at least has the power to get the ball down field. That’s not Mullens’ strength. As long as Mullens remains the Niners’ starting quarterback, it’s likely the route trees will be notably shorter than the 20-plus yard attempts.

Related to this is the argument the 49ers offensive line, despite numerous upgrades, has performed worse in pass protection than 2017. According to Football Outsiders, San Francisco’s O-line ranks 23rd in pass blocking compared to 18th the previous year.

Elements like this have likely influenced Shanahan to use less of some of his favorite deep-passing plays, such as the Yankee Concept — Niner Noise’s Rich Madrid broke that down here — which relies heavily on excellent pass protection as the elongated routes develop.

It also doesn’t help the 49ers haven’t been fully healthy at wide receiver and, in total, have generally received lackluster production from this group. Case in point, the Niners’ fastest wideout, Marquise Goodwin, has been banged up for most of the year and limited to just 32 targets — down significantly from the 105 he saw in 2017.

And rookie receiver Dante Pettis, whose excellent route-running abilities made him a star in college, have yet to translate over to the pro level.

Looking at it all, Shanahan’s deep-passing offense in 2018 has been beset by a number of factors. Injuries and inconsistent play from both his wide receivers and quarterbacks haven’t helped. Neither has the slight regression from the O-line in pass protection.

With these shortcomings, Shanahan and Co. have been forced to rely more on shorter, less risky passes, which has also allowed opposing defenses to cheat up a bit towards the line of scrimmage.

And it’s just one more avenue in which San Francisco will look to improve in 2019.

Hopefully when the best contributors are back and healthy.

For more grades, advanced statistics and more at Pro Football Focus, subscribe
to PFF’s EDGE or ELITE subscriptions at ProFootballFocus.com.