With both free agency and the NFL Draft looming, the San Francisco 49ers are going to be looking to put the best starting lineup on the field in 2018. Let’s do it for them.
The 2017 San Francisco 49ers were a slew of question marks and “let’s see” players at the beginning in Week 1 a year ago.
General manager John Lynch had largely cleaned house, parting ways with numerous holdovers from the previous regime, and the Niners would go on to start more rookies than any other team in the league last year.
It wasn’t all good, though.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback play was an issue from the onset until Jimmy Garoppolo took over duties after his trade from the New England Patriots. The defense, under first-year coordinator Robert Saleh, ranked 25th in points allowed (383) and gave up nearly 24 points per game.
Needless to say, Lynch and Co. have some work to do this offseason.
Putting together the ideal starting lineup in 2018 won’t be easy. Fortunately, the team owns the No. 9 pick in the NFL Draft, as well as nearly $69 million in available cap space.
Thankfully, the franchise can look to Niner Noise for some help. We were nice enough to create the ideal starting lineup for San Francisco this upcoming season.
From a realistic vantage point, of course. No, the Niners aren’t going to be trading for All-Pro-type contributors like linebacker Luke Kuechly or wide receiver Julio Jones. But there are some moves to be made.
Taking those into account, here is our initial setup for an ideal starting lineup. We’ll combine on-roster players, as well as both NFL Draft picks and free agents on the team’s (hopeful) radar.
Let’s jump this thing with special teams.
Special Teams
Kicker: Robbie Gould
Punter: Bradley Pinion
Long-Snapper: Kyle Nelson
No kicker converted more field-goal attempts in the league last year than Robbie Gould (39). And only one, the Panthers’ Graham Gano, had a higher conversion percentage than Gould’s mark of 95.1.
Did Gould get a Pro Bowl snub this year? Probably. But there’s no reason to change him out this year.
And after a rough start to his pro career, punter Bradley Pinion appears to have settled in nicely to his role.
No one knows Kyle Nelson’s name, and long-snappers prefer to keep it that way.
Safety
Free Safety: Adrian Colbert
Strong Safety: Jaquiski Tartt
Had it not been for a broken forearm suffered in Week 9 last year, strong safety Jaquiski Tartt could have easily been one of the best performing members of San Francisco’s defense.
After all, Tartt logged an impressive 85.8 overall grade on the year, 15th best among qualifying safeties, per Pro Football Focus.
Tartt appears to be a natural fit in Robert Saleh’s Cover 3 scheme, where he’ll play down in the box and offer both size and tenacity in support against the run. Tartt’s coverage was good too, which is another reason he was able to push out the veteran, Eric Reid, from a starting job prior to the former’s injury.
There are some questions at free safety, though, where Jimmie Ward and 2017 rookie Adrian Colbert appear poised for a serious competition this training camp.
Here’s the difference, though. Ward has landed on injured reserve in three of his first four years at the pro level. Colbert is up and coming, figuring to be one of the late-round finds made by John Lynch a year ago.
Cornerback
Right Cornerback: Kyle Fuller
Left Cornerback: Ahkello Witherspoon
Nickel: K’Waun Williams
49ers fans need not worry about 2017 third-round draftee Ahkello Witherspoon heading forward. His impressive play, despite a sluggish start to the season, was reason enough for the Niners to part ways with oft-penalized corner Rashard Robinson midway through the year.
The question is, however, finding an adequate corner to play opposite Witherspoon.
There are a lot of free-agent corners on the market, and one might expect San Francisco to use this route to address the need.
Some, like the New England Patriots’ Malcolm Butler and the Los Angeles Rams’ Trumaine Johnson, are worth looks.
But for this opinion, the target should be Chicago Bears cornerback Kyle Fuller.
No corner in the NFL saw more targets than Fuller last year (119). It’s a bit puzzling, though, as opposing quarterbacks posted a passer rating of just 69.0 when targeting him, per Pro Football Focus. That number is significantly better than the 79.8 rating allowed by Johnson and the 96.6 rating allowed by Butler.
Yup, Fuller should be the guy.
Linebacker
MIKE: Reuben Foster
WILL: Malcolm Smith
SAM: Tremaine Edmunds
The situation with linebacker Reuben Foster is dicey at best, and there’s no guarantee the 49ers keep him around after his second offseason arrest. The second, of course, being much more serious than the first.
It’s likely he’ll face at least a six-game suspension from the NFL if retained, though, and the Niners will have to plan accordingly. Yet this is a best-case scenario piece, however, which would obviously include Foster being on the field.
San Francisco gets some reinforcements in veteran linebacker Malcolm Smith, who missed all of 2017 with a pectoral injury. John Lynch noted Smith’s recovery is on schedule and he should be able to “go full bore” when offseason programs commence.
Smith gets pegged at the weak-side linebacker, where he won’t be as responsible for coverage duties.
The kicker, of course, would be finding a strong-side linebacker. Here is where the NFL Draft comes into play.
A name to target is Virginia Tech’s Tremaine Edmunds who, at 6-foot-5 and 250 pounds, would be an excellent option to upgrade the incumbent, Eli Harold.
As Niners Wire’s Chris Biderman pointed out, the SAM spot appears to be Edmunds’ perfect fit over the long run.
So, there you have it — San Francisco’s first overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Defensive Line
3-Technique: DeForest Buckner
5-Technique (Big End): Solomon Thomas
1-Technique: Earl Mitchell
Right End (LEO): Hercules Mata’afa
The 49ers have invested heavily in their defensive line the last three years, and that won’t change in 2018.
It’s hard to argue with the above formation on base downs, and 2017 first-overall Niners draftee Solomon Thomas can bump inside on passing downs. As the big end in a 4-3 Under scheme, he’s technically playing on the inside anyway with a SAM linebacker up along the line of scrimmage.
The key here, clearly, is the lack of a pass rush from the right defensive end, or LEO, spot. San Francisco experimented with edge rushers Arik Armstead and Aaron Lynch here last season, while giving 3rd-and-long snaps to veteran EDGE Elvis Dumervil.
It didn’t exactly work out, though. Armstead was lost early in the year to a hand injury, and Lynch was a non-factor. At 34 years old, Dumervil remains a situational pass-rusher at best.
What’s needed here is an every-down edge bender. And a perfect fit would be Washington State’s Hercules Mata’afa.
According to this projection, the 49ers have already used their first-round pick on Tremaine Edmunds. Mata’afa is probably a day-two pickup, and he should be San Francisco’s target.
Fourth and Nine’s Dylan DeSimone has been high on Mata’afa for some time now, describing how he’s a perfect fit for what Robert Saleh sees in a LEO role:
"Mata’afa embodies everything Saleh desires in his defense and projects to play a position they’re looking to fill. As a constant presence in the backfield, the Wazzu product plays violent, fast and with a chip on his shoulder. His hyperactive play speed and pop at the point of contact really captures his game. He also matches the size requirements for a Leo, listing at 6-foot-2, 252 pounds, according to the Wazzu website."
San Francisco won’t finish 26th in sacks this season with Mata’afa on the roster.
Offensive Line
Left Tackle: Joe Staley
Left Guard: Andrew Norwell
Center: Daniel Kilgore
Right Guard: Joshua Garnett
Right Tackle: Trent Brown
Three of the five offensive line spots are pretty much set for 2018. One of the seemingly pressing areas of concern was at center, although the 49ers brought back veteran Daniel Kilgore on a three-year deal.
It makes sense — we eluded to why here — as Kilgore’s play improved dramatically with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.
That leaves the guard positions open.
In an ideal world, the Niners would figure out a way to land Notre Dame’s Quenton Nelson in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Nelson’s stock is skyrocketing, though, so it probably doesn’t happen.
Instead, San Francisco uses its plethora of cap space to lure in Panthers All-Pro guard Andrew Norwell, who figures to be one of the prized O-linemen available on the open market.
Norwell won’t come cheap, as his market value projects in the range of $11.7 million annually. But the 49ers have the cap space to make such a deal happen.
And there’s always this to chew on:
Here's a stat for those who want the #49ers to sign G Andrew Norwell: According to @PFF, he was also the only o-lineman in the league to have at least 500 pass-blocking snaps without allowing a sack or QB hit. Only four guards have done that since 2006.
— Al Sacco (@AlSacco49) February 6, 2018
Right guard is a bit up in the air, especially with Joshua Garnett (knee) missing all of last season. The hope is he wins out any camp competition and starts to develop into his first-round pedigree.
Tight End
George Kittle
Let’s just leave this here with regards to tight end George Kittle:
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/2/2018.
Those numbers, as Niner Noise’s Chris Wilson pointed out, are historic. No tight end in the modern-day history of the NFL has put up those kinds of numbers his rookie year after being selected in Round 5, or later, of the draft.
Any reason to change? Probably not.
Wide Receiver
Right Wide Receiver: Pierre Garçon
Left Wide Receiver: Marquise Goodwin
Slot: Trent Taylor
Sure, a big-name wide receiver might be on the 49ers’ list of offseason priorities. But it’s equally plausible one isn’t.
At least according to a report by 49ers.com’s Joe Fann.
Keep this in mind — Kyle Shanahan turned a previously seldom-used Marquise Goodwin into nearly a 1,000-yard receiver last season. Goodwin would have likely reached that mark had it not been for a concussion in Week 17 last year. Rather than being just a speedster, Goodwin’s route-running took shape in 2017. We should expect even more this year.
Similarly, veteran wideout Pierre Garçon was on pace to reach 1,000 receiving yards before suffering a season-ending neck injury exactly halfway through the year.
In the case with Garçon, partially with Goodwin, these numbers came before Jimmy Garoppolo took over under center.
With Trent Taylor a valuable third-down weapon out of the slot, there might not be as big a reason to make upgrades here as one could think.
If there aren’t any substantial changes, we should be OK with that.
Running Back
Fullback: Kyle Juszczyk
Halfback: Matt Breida
There are enough signs to point to running back Carlos Hyde departing via free agency this offseason, and that might not be a bad thing.
Especially when considers the scheme fit in Kyle Shanahan’s outside-zone rushing attack, courtesy of Pro Football Focus’ Jeff Deeney, when comparing Hyde to the 49ers’ No. 2 tailback, Matt Breida:
#49ers ran outside zone more often than any other concept last season. On outside zone runs Brieda averaged 5.4 ypc, Hyde averaged 3.2 ypc.
— Jeff Deeney (@PFF_Jeff) February 28, 2018
Sure, Hyde led the Niners with 1,288 all-purpose yards last season. But those are yards that can be dished out elsewhere, particularly with a more effective passing game.
Breida is the more natural fit. And while it’s likely Shanahan and Co. find another runner to pair with the undrafted free agent, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Breida rise up the depth chart and assume a No. 1 role in 2018.
Meanwhile, fullback Kyle Juszczyk was one of only two San Francisco Pro Bowlers last year. No reason to assume anything changes this season.
Quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo
Well, duh.
We could spend hours talking all the Jimmy Garoppolo hype. But you’ve heard it before. You know the difference he made for the 49ers offense over the final five games of 2017.
But if you need a refresher, there’s this from Niner Noise’s Chris Wilson:
#49ers with Garoppolo led the #NFL in points-per-drive, even though they had the highest FG-to-TD rate in the league. How? The Niners scored on an outlandish 62% of Garoppolo's drives. #GoNiners #49wz pic.twitter.com/jkZz4TD2tK
— Chris Wilson (@cgawilson) January 28, 2018
San Francisco didn’t just make Garoppolo the league’s highest-paid player based solely on market value. Yes, all that’s true. But it’s also because the Niners believe Garoppolo can reach that level of franchise elite.
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Based on the sample size, he should be able to do so.
With Garoppolo under center, the 49ers offense looks more than just capable. Tack on some offensive additions and a full year jelling together under Kyle Shanahan, it could reach potent levels in 2018.
Next: NFL Draft or free agency? How the 49ers address their 2018 needs
And all that, plus a strong starting lineup, puts the Niners into a serious playoff push this season.