Super Bowl LII: Breaking down the Eagles, Patriots game plans
By Peter Panacy
Patriots’ Super Bowl Game Plans
They’ve been there before. And they’ve overcome deficits.
Super Bowl LI proved the Patriots aren’t out of any game until, well, they’re actually out. And head coach Bill Belichick’s ability to create in-game adjustments is, with little doubt, the best in the NFL. Perhaps the best in history.
If there’s one thing to know about what his defense will do, it will take away an opponent’s top offensive threat, forcing someone else to step up in crucial situations.
For Super Bowl LII, one might expect this to be Philadelphia’s ground attack.
Defensive Game Plan
Taking away the ground game and forcing quarterback Nick Foles to make plays with his arm isn’t a bad idea for New England.
Especially late in the game. Over his career, Foles’ fourth-quarter passer rating is just 78.8 — the lowest of any quarter in regulation. Based off this stat, Foles isn’t known for late-game heroics, leading to the possibility of Philly’s offense breaking down a bit in the second half.
To make the Eagles one-dimensional, however, the Pats have to win at the line of scrimmage. Per Pro Football Focus, it’s not exactly a lopsided matchup in New England’s favor. But it’s doable:
Defensive tackles Trey Flowers and Malcolm Brown are players to watch here. Both have run-defending grades well over the 80 mark, per PFF, which will make interior runs difficult. The key will be whether or not New England’s linebackers and edge defenders will be able to cut off outside runs by Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount.
Forcing Foles into 3rd-and-long situations is key, as his passer rating on downs of 3rd-and-7 to -9 is only 57.1 in his career.
In those moments, expect New England to blanket tight end Zach Ertz with a combination of linebacker Marquis Flowers and safety Patrick Chung — both of whom are excellent in pass coverage.
Offensive Game Plan
Well, what else would it be? Let Tom Brady do his thing.
As simple as that sounds, the key for Brady and the offense will be to maximize windows in the short amount of time allotted before Philadelphia’s pass-rushers get home.
Per PFF, Brady gets the ball out, on average, at 2.62 seconds — tied for 10th quickest in the league. And his passer rating when under pressure is a league-leading 96.6.
Simply put, Brady can offset the Eagles pass rush to a nice extent. The question will be how to go about exploiting Philadelphia’s defensive weaknesses.
With only 1,267 yards allowed on the ground — best in the NFL in 2017 — the Eagles can stop the run. But their secondary, particularly Jalen Mills, might be the weakest link. Quarterbacks targeting Mills posted a 94.7 passer rating during the regular season, per PFF, and he’ll be largely responsible for covering speedy Pats wideout Brandin Cooks.
Not an easy assignment.
Of course, all the talk should be about what tight end Rob Gronkowski can do during the Super Bowl. Gronkowski was cleared from the concussion protocol — an injury suffered during the AFC Championship game two weeks ago. He’ll play. The only question is what kind of impact he’ll have.
Scheme-wise, one might guess the Pats to send Cooks on deep routes, forcing Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins to assist Mills with over-the-top help. Doing so leaves Eagles linebacker Mychal Kendricks in one-on-one coverage.
No matter how good the linebacker, Gronkowski’s mismatch abilities win out here.