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NFL playoffs: AFC & NFC Championship game previews, predictions

By Peter Panacy

FOXBORO, MA - SEPTEMBER 27: Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots makes a pass during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Gillette Stadium on September 27, 2015 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
FOXBORO, MA - SEPTEMBER 27: Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots makes a pass during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Gillette Stadium on September 27, 2015 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /
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PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 23: Josh Huff #13 of the Philadelphia Eagles gets by Eric Kendricks #54 of the Minnesota Vikings after making a catch for a first down during the fourth quarter of a game at Lincoln Financial Field on October 23, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The eagles defeated the Vikings 21-10. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 23: Josh Huff #13 of the Philadelphia Eagles gets by Eric Kendricks #54 of the Minnesota Vikings after making a catch for a first down during the fourth quarter of a game at Lincoln Financial Field on October 23, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The eagles defeated the Vikings 21-10. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

NFC Championship Game

The Vikings were this close to losing 24-23 to the Saints in the Divisional Round.

Seriously. Who could have foreseen that kind of outcome? Even Nostradamus would have been shocked.

At any rate, the Vikings beat arguably the most complete team in the NFL playoffs, doing so in dramatic fashion after letting New Orleans come back and then take a late lead. That momentum will help, although the Eagles managed to ride their defense to a 15-10 victory over the Atlanta Falcons.

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JANUARY 14: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Minnesota Vikings leaps to catch the ball in the fourth quarter of the NFC Divisional Playoff game against the New Orleans Saints on January 14, 2018 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Diggs scored a 61-yard touchdown to win the game 29-24. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JANUARY 14: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Minnesota Vikings leaps to catch the ball in the fourth quarter of the NFC Divisional Playoff game against the New Orleans Saints on January 14, 2018 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Diggs scored a 61-yard touchdown to win the game 29-24. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

It would be easy to count the Eagles out, as quarterback Nick Foles is nowhere near the impact player Carson Wentz (knee) is at this point in his career. So it makes sense Minnesota is favored by 3.5 points, per Sportsbook Review.

Both teams have great defenses, although it’s pretty easy to argue why the Vikings have the edge here.

Is it too much for Foles and Co. to overcome?

Why the Eagles Win

Not having Wentz meant Philadelphia would have to find other ways to win this NFL playoffs. And that’s exactly what it did, holding Atlanta to just 334 all-purpose yards.

This is the formula again, as the Eagles will be forced to rely on defense to frustrate Vikings QB Case Keenum. If there is a weakness on defense for Philly, it’s within the secondary. The good news for the Eagles, though, is their front seven masks any deficiencies here.

Defensive tackles Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox — graded by Pro Football Focus at 91.6 and 90.7, respectively — could have a big game against a Vikings offensive line ranked by PFF 13th in pass-blocking efficiency.

Foles will need to embrace the game-manager role, as Minnesota’s defense is too strong to take chances.

This means a well-balanced, conservative offense. But that formula worked well enough against Atlanta, so why abandon it now?

Why the Vikings Win

Keenum’s 2017 season has been enough to shed the “journeyman” moniker. He’s been excellent this year and deserves to be this deep in the NFL playoffs.

While Keenum played OK, not great, in the NFC Divisional Round, he’ll have to be on point against a stout Philadelphia pass rush. His favorite receiving targets, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, might have a bit of an edge against the Eagles’ Jalen Mills. But Keenum can’t wait for routes to develop, meaning plenty of short, high-percentage passes like screens and button hooks in man coverage.

The Vikings defense has to play effectively, that’s it. And doing so should allow head coach Mike Zimmer to put the game in the hands of his defense.

That same defense was best in the NFL in both points allowed (252) and yardage given up (4,415). Like the Jaguars, they play strong at all three levels. There simply aren’t enough areas of weakness for the Eagles to exploit.

It would be wise for Minnesota to rely on that for four quarters.

Prediction

Picking between Keenum and Foles is a bit tough to do. Foles has experienced serious success, dating back to his 2013 campaign with the Eagles. But Keenum’s abilities to make explosive plays, even in limited fashion, have been more on point this season.

More from Niner Noise

Just ask the Saints and their budding secondary.

Doing so on the road and in the cold Philadelphia weather presents a different challenge, though, so one could look at this particular matchup almost equally.

The difference, though, is on defense. Philly’s defense is good. Minnesota’s is elite.

That’s your X-factor.

This will be a low-scoring affair, which benefits both teams. But given the Vikings’ ability to slow down even top-tier offenses when it matters most gives them the edge.

Next: Predicting which quarterbacks go where in 2018

Prediction: Vikings 19, Eagles 13