NFL playoffs: AFC & NFC Championship game previews, predictions
By Peter Panacy
AFC Championship Game — Jaguars at Patriots
It was something of a surprise to see the Jaguars push around the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field last weekend during the AFC Divisional Round, winning 45-42 in a score that looked more like a college game than anything else.
And while Pittsburgh made it interesting late, there’s no doubting the Jaguars defense is for real. This unit is aggressive, advantageous and boasts talent at all three levels — the defensive line, linebackers and within the secondary.
It’s no surprise, however, the Patriots easily handled the Tennessee Titans 35-14. The Pats remain the team to beat, and it will be a challenge for Jacksonville to figure out how.
New England is a heavy 9.5-point favorite, according to Sportsbook Review. Why? Well, they have the better quarterback. Plain and simple.
But there are other factors at play here.
Why the Patriots Win
The Patriots bring the No. 1-ranked offense, in terms of yardage gained (6,307), against arguably the league’s best defense in this round of the NFL playoffs.
Brady and Co. may be wise to look at how a less-than-potent San Francisco 49ers offense hung 44 points against this same defense back in Week 16. What made it work was key third-down execution and putting the Jaguars in a position where they were trailing early.
Fortunately, the Pats converted 42.47 of their third-down attempts — sixth best in the NFL, per TeamRankings.com.
But it’s not always going to be about Brady and the passing game. Jacksonville allowed an average of 4.3 yards per rush attempt this season, 26th in the league, which means Patriots running back Dion Lewis should be a big factor.
New England seems to have figured out its defensive woes from earlier this season. The “bend but don’t break” mentality worked, as the Pats finished 2017 with the league’s fifth best scoring defense.
Head coach Bill Belichick aims to take away his opponents’ best offensive weapon, and this will mean Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette.
Titans running back Derrick Henry had just 28 yards on 12 attempts last week, so this will have to be the same formula again.
Why the Jaguars Win
Smothering defense. Plain and simple.
Jacksonville won’t enjoy the same game-management mistakes Pittsburgh made a week ago, and the Jags can’t afford to win in shootout fashion.
They can’t afford to fall behind early either, as that would require quarterback Blake Bortles to make plays under center. If he’s managing the offense and not making mistakes, that’s one thing. Putting the offense on his shoulders is another.
Ironically enough, both the Patriots offense and Jaguars defense ranked second in the league in fewest turnovers lost and most turnovers taken away, respectively.
Look for the winner to take advantage of this stat matchup.
Another key matchup area to watch is in the trenches. Per Football Outsiders, the Patriots rank 14th in overall pass protection, while the Jaguars had an adjusted sack rate of 9.1 percent — second best in the NFL and best remaining in the NFL playoffs.
Jacksonville is stronger up front and will need its premier pass-rushers to dominate at the line of scrimmage.
Prediction
As much as it would be fun to see another Brady/Patriots Super Bowl run come to an end prematurely, there’s a reason Vegas odds favor the Pats so heavily.
The quarterback matchup is one thing, but the ability for Belichick to negate a player like Fournette’s ability to impact the game will be a major X-factor.
And one that gives New England the edge.
This game is close for a while and stays low scoring. But as they always do, the Patriots make the necessary in-game adjustments to exploit a dangerous Jaguars defense, also ensuring Bortles will be the guy responsible for handling the lion’s share of offensive duties.
That’s not a winning formula for Jacksonville.
Prediction: Patriots 30, Jaguars 21